Business
M&A Activity Shows Resilience Amid Global Trade Tensions and Economic Uncertainty
Global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity is demonstrating surprising resilience despite a challenging backdrop of geopolitical unrest, trade tensions, and lingering economic uncertainty. According to analysts and corporate advisers, seasoned dealmakers are continuing to pursue strategic transactions, even as risks remain elevated.
Pitchbook’s latest M&A report revealed that global dealmaking in the first half of 2025 reached $2 trillion across 24,793 transactions — year-on-year increases of 13.6% in value and 16.2% in volume. “Despite persistent macroeconomic headwinds, including recession risks, geopolitical instability, and renewed trade friction, M&A remained remarkably strong,” said Garrett Hinds, senior private equity analyst at Pitchbook.
Europe is on track for its best M&A year in over a decade, if current momentum continues. This follows a difficult 2023, where rising interest rates and inflation led to valuation mismatches between buyers and sellers. “When expectations from buyers and sellers are misaligned, deals often fall apart or require complex mechanisms like earn-outs to bridge the valuation gap,” said Lorenzo Corte, global co-head of transactions at Skadden.
Easing interest rates and more stable inflation conditions have helped narrow these valuation gaps. Nigel Wellings, co-head of corporate for Europe at Clifford Chance, noted that companies are finally regaining the ability to model costs and risks. “There’s now a better sense of where interest rates are heading, which is vital for deal pricing and structuring,” he said.
Strategic shifts driven by emerging technologies and climate goals are also prompting firms to restructure. Many companies are shedding non-core units or acquiring capabilities in areas like artificial intelligence and sustainability to future-proof their operations. “CEOs increasingly see M&A as a tool to reposition their business for the next decade,” said Erik Hummitzsch, EMEA deals leader at PwC Germany.
Geopolitical tensions and shifting trade policies are also shaping deal strategies. Firms are consolidating operations to limit exposure in risky markets while increasing presence in stable or growing regions. Cost pressures, particularly from U.S. tariffs, are pushing industries like automotive and chemicals toward consolidation. Meanwhile, increased defence spending in Europe is driving activity in aerospace and related sectors.
Europe’s cautious regulatory stance on mergers is being re-evaluated. The Draghi report, published in late 2024, has called for more encouragement of consolidation to bolster EU competitiveness. “There’s a growing recognition that scale isn’t inherently bad,” Wellings said, adding that Europe needs to create industrial champions, especially in globally competitive sectors like finance and defence.
Looking ahead, analysts say the M&A outlook hinges on global trade developments, particularly U.S. tariff policy under President Trump, and broader macroeconomic trends. While dealmaking remains below peak levels, growing appetite for strategic restructuring, easing interest rates, and better market clarity suggest that M&A activity is likely to remain steady in the months ahead.
Business
Global Markets Rise as US–Iran Talks Ease Sentiment, but Oil and Geopolitical Risks Persist
Global financial markets advanced on Friday as investors reacted cautiously to signs of progress in US–Iran negotiations, though ongoing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and elevated oil prices kept risk sentiment fragile.
European equities opened higher across the board. The DAX gained 0.64%, supported by a 3.61% rise in Deutsche Post AG shares. France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.65%, led by a 3.43% jump in STMicroelectronics. In London, the FTSE 100 rose 0.38%, with gains in financial stocks including 3i Group, while the Euro Stoxx 50 added 0.88%.
Currency markets were relatively steady, with the euro trading at $1.161 and the British pound at $1.342 in early European trading. Sentiment was also lifted by better-than-expected economic data from Germany, where first-quarter growth came in at 0.4% year on year and consumer confidence improved heading into June, offering cautious optimism for Europe’s largest economy.
Asian markets followed the upward trend. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 2.7% to 63,339 after data showed inflation easing to a four-year low of 1.4% in April. Taiwan’s Taiex rose 2.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s Shanghai Composite each gained 0.9%. South Korea, Australia, and India also posted modest increases, reflecting broad regional strength.
Wall Street had earlier closed slightly higher. The S&P 500 added 0.2%, the Dow Jones rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq edged up 0.1%. However, technology stocks showed mixed signals, with Nvidia falling 1.8% despite strong quarterly results, as investors weighed valuations against broader market uncertainty.
Oil markets remained the key source of volatility. Brent crude climbed 2.3% to $104.97 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate rose 1.8% to $98.10. Prices remain significantly above pre-conflict levels, driven by continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil flows pass.
Shipping through the strategic waterway remains constrained, with limited signs of recovery as diplomatic negotiations continue without resolution. Analysts say markets are highly sensitive to developments in talks between Washington and Tehran, with ING commodities strategists noting that optimism exists but uncertainty dominates trading conditions.
Geopolitical tensions also weighed on policy discussions in Washington, where a planned congressional vote on war powers legislation was postponed amid insufficient support.
In bond markets, US Treasury yields eased slightly to 4.57% after earlier spikes driven by inflation concerns linked to energy prices. The movement reflected ongoing caution among investors balancing growth expectations with persistent geopolitical risk.
Corporate earnings added a bright spot in Asia, where Lenovo Group surged more than 20% after reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly revenue of $21.6 billion, driven by robust performance in its PC and smart devices division.
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