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Spanish Companies Scale Back Operations in Russia as Trade Plummets Amid Sanctions

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Spanish companies are steadily withdrawing from Russia and reducing their exposure to the Kremlin as economic sanctions and political tensions continue to mount. Data from the Spanish Chamber of Commerce shows a sharp contraction in bilateral trade, reflecting a broader strategy by Spain to distance itself from the Russian market.

Since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly four years ago, the impact on Spanish exporters has been profound. In 2021, Spanish exports to Russia were valued at €2.2 billion. By 2024, that figure had fallen to €783 million—a decline of more than 64%. The number of Spanish firms exporting to Russia has also plunged from around 670 in 2021 to just 158 last year.

Experts attribute the steep decline to the ongoing war in Ukraine and the sweeping sanctions imposed by the European Union and the United States. These restrictions have disrupted supply chains, raised inflation, and limited access to raw materials. The sanctions also curbed Russia’s ability to transfer funds and restricted travel for key business personnel.

The European Union’s July decision to penalise Russian gas imports and block the use of Nord Stream pipelines further strained trade. The United States has also tightened restrictions, imposing new sanctions on major Russian oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil in an effort to pressure the Kremlin toward peace negotiations.

Despite the decline in exports, certain Russian imports into Spain have persisted. Energy remains the largest component of bilateral trade, with liquefied natural gas (LNG) playing a key role. A 2024 report by the Bank of Spain revealed that Russia’s share of Spain’s LNG imports outside the EU rose from 18% in 2022 to 36% by mid-2024. However, by May 2025, that figure had dropped to 13.3% as Spain ramped up LNG imports from the United States.

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Fertiliser imports from Russia, on the other hand, grew sharply in 2024. Data from S&P Global indicated record-high imports of urea and calcium ammonium nitrate, making Russia Spain’s second-largest supplier of nitrogen fertilisers. The trend has raised alarms in Europe over continued dependence on Russian agricultural products, prompting discussions about possible tariffs.

Recent figures underline the ongoing contraction in bilateral trade. Between January and July 2025, Spanish imports from Russia totalled €1.2 billion, down from €1.45 billion during the same period the previous year. Exports also declined from €468 million to €425 million.

According to the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC), Spanish exports to Russia fell by 14.3% in August 2025 compared to the previous year, while imports dropped by 57.7%. The top Spanish exports included perfumes, processed foods, and vaccines, while imports were dominated by petroleum gas, aluminium, and fertilisers.

The OEC’s latest report confirms that trade between Spain and Russia has remained near historic lows since the war began. While limited exchanges continue in sectors such as pharmaceuticals and agri-food products, volumes remain far below pre-2022 levels, marking a decisive shift in Spain’s economic relationship with Russia.

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Oxford Economics Warns US-Iran Peace Deal Will Shape Global Economy in Second Half of Year

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July 8, 2026

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The outlook for the global economy during the remainder of the year will depend largely on whether the fragile peace agreement between the United States and Iran survives, according to a new analysis by Oxford Economics, which says the deal could determine the direction of inflation, energy prices and financial markets.

After a first half marked by conflict in the Middle East, volatile oil prices and rapid growth in artificial intelligence investments, the consultancy believes the next six months will be influenced by a series of interconnected risks, with the US-Iran truce standing at the center.

Chief Global Economist Ryan Sweet said the durability of the agreement would determine whether the global economy benefits from lower energy costs or faces another oil-price shock.

Oxford Economics forecasts global annualized economic growth of 3.1 percent during the second half of the year, compared with an estimated 1.6 percent in the first six months. The projection assumes oil prices remain relatively stable, supporting consumer spending and easing inflationary pressures. However, Sweet described the chances of the peace agreement holding as no better than “a coin flip.”

The report expects Brent crude to average in the low $70s per barrel if the agreement remains intact. A breakdown, however, could trigger higher inflation, tighter financial conditions and renewed pressure on global supply chains.

Those concerns intensified after fresh military exchanges on Wednesday. The United States launched strikes against Iran following allegations that Tehran had attacked three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded with strikes targeting Bahrain and Kuwait, raising fears that the ceasefire could unravel.

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Oil markets reacted quickly, with Brent crude climbing above $78 a barrel after rising more than six percent during trading.

Oxford Economics said any disruption would extend well beyond energy markets. Higher oil prices could increase production costs for technology companies, disrupt semiconductor supply chains across Asia, complicate central bank policy decisions and influence political developments, including upcoming elections in the United States and Israel.

The consultancy’s outlook differs from several other major forecasts. Morgan Stanley expects crude prices to approach $90 a barrel by year-end, while the World Bank projects Brent crude to average around $94 this year and anticipates global economic growth slowing to 2.5 percent in 2026.

Oxford Economics identified shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz as one of the clearest indicators of whether the peace agreement is holding. The report said a sustained recovery in vessel traffic by mid-July would strengthen confidence in the deal.

Beyond geopolitics, the report highlighted growing risks surrounding the artificial intelligence sector. The Bank for International Settlements recently warned that rapid expansion in AI investment has become increasingly dependent on private credit and complex financing arrangements outside the traditional banking system.

Oxford Economics also modeled a scenario in which US technology stocks fall by 25 percent over one year. According to Sweet, such a correction would bring US economic growth close to a standstill and reduce global growth by more than one percentage point.

Despite these risks, the consultancy said stronger AI-driven productivity and resilient economic activity in Europe could provide support if geopolitical tensions ease and energy markets stabilize during the second half of the year.

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Uzbekistan Accelerates Multi-Billion-Dollar Drive to Boost Value-Added Exports

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July 8, 2026

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Uzbekistan is intensifying efforts to strengthen its export economy by expanding domestic processing industries, with multi-billion-dollar investments aimed at increasing the value of agricultural products, metals and minerals before they reach international markets.

The strategy forms a key part of the country’s long-term economic plans and includes a $10 billion food-processing target by 2030, a $4.2 billion pipeline of technological metals projects and new steel manufacturing facilities designed to reduce imports while increasing exports.

The initiative comes as Uzbekistan’s economic outlook continues to improve. In June, Moody’s Ratings upgraded the country’s sovereign credit rating from Ba3 to Ba2, citing stronger economic performance, improved fiscal conditions and progress in institutional reforms.

As a landlocked nation, Uzbekistan is seeking to maximize export earnings by processing more goods domestically rather than relying on raw commodity exports.

Agriculture remains one of the country’s largest sectors. Agriculture Minister Ibrokhim Abdurakhmonov said Uzbekistan produces around 24 million tonnes of fruit and vegetables each year but stressed that production alone is no longer enough to support long-term economic growth.

He said processed food exports are expected to reach $4.5 billion this year, placing the country on track toward its 2030 target. According to the minister, greater investment in packaging, canning, bottling and food-processing technologies will allow Uzbek products to compete in higher-value international markets.

Uzbekistan currently exports agricultural products to 92 countries and is also expanding internationally recognized certification systems, including halal, organic, ISO, GLOBALG.A.P. and Better Cotton Initiative standards, to improve market access.

Officials believe maintaining strict quality controls and laboratory testing will help prevent export rejections and strengthen the country’s reputation among overseas buyers.

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Infrastructure and investment are also central to the government’s plans. Kanokpan Lao-Araya, the Asian Development Bank’s Country Director for Uzbekistan, said long-term investment depends on reliable transport networks, energy systems, skilled workers and a stable legal environment that gives investors confidence.

The Asian Development Bank is supporting the country’s agricultural sector through the ANORA investment platform, which aims to attract additional private capital into agribusiness and export-oriented projects.

International manufacturers are also increasing their presence. Italian engineering company Gamma Meccanica is working with Uzbek partners on stone-wool insulation production and hydroponic farming technologies to support industrial growth.

The government is pursuing similar ambitions in mining and manufacturing. Uzbekistan Technological Metals Complex, established in 2024, is overseeing more than 100 projects worth an estimated $4.2 billion to expand exploration, refining and processing of critical minerals.

Steel producer Uzmetkombinat plans to localize production of 880,000 tonnes of sheet steel annually, with more than 200,000 tonnes intended for export. Company officials said higher-value steel products command significantly better prices than standard construction steel.

At Almalyk Mining and Metallurgical Complex, executives expect new copper-processing projects and advanced manufacturing agreements to potentially double or triple company profits.

Industry experts have also stressed the importance of transparency. Mark Robinson, Executive Director of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, said countries rich in natural resources must maintain strong governance, fair contracting practices and transparent permitting systems to ensure mining revenues generate lasting economic benefits while attracting responsible investment.

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OPEC+ Approves Modest August Oil Output Increase as Crude Prices Retreat

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July 6, 2026

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Seven members of the OPEC+ alliance have agreed to increase their combined oil production by 188,000 barrels per day in August, adopting a cautious approach as global crude prices continue to fall back to levels seen before the conflict involving Iran disrupted energy markets.

The producers announced the decision on Sunday, saying the output adjustment reflects current market conditions while reaffirming their commitment to maintaining stability in global oil markets.

“The countries will continue to monitor and assess market conditions, and in their continuous efforts to support market stability, they reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach,” the group said in a statement.

The increase comes after oil prices retreated sharply following months of heightened volatility linked to the conflict in the Middle East. Brent crude, the international benchmark, was trading below $72 per barrel as markets opened on Sunday evening, returning to levels recorded before military action involving Iran earlier this year. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading at around $68 per barrel.

Oil prices had surged during the height of the conflict, with Brent approaching $120 per barrel amid concerns over disruptions to supplies from the Gulf region. Prices have eased in recent weeks as tensions cooled and shipping activity gradually resumed.

Market sentiment has improved after Iran agreed under an interim understanding to allow commercial vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, while the United States eased restrictions affecting Iranian ports. Even so, negotiations aimed at reaching a broader settlement remain ongoing, and authorities in Tehran have warned that vessels departing from approved routes could face military action.

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The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes, carrying roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies before the conflict. Although commercial traffic has resumed, shipping volumes have yet to return to normal levels.

During the conflict, many OPEC+ production increases existed largely on paper rather than in actual exports. Limited access through the Strait of Hormuz forced several Gulf producers to reduce physical shipments as storage facilities filled with unsold crude, leaving actual production below official quotas.

As maritime routes gradually reopen, stored oil is returning to international markets, adding to supply and contributing to downward pressure on prices beyond the announced production increase.

Despite improving conditions, analysts believe a full recovery in Gulf oil production will take time. S&P Global Energy has projected that output may not return completely to pre-conflict levels until at least the first quarter of 2027. Industry observers also expect the effects of the disruption on fuel prices and broader inflation to continue even after any permanent political settlement is reached.

The seven OPEC+ producers said they remain prepared to suspend or reverse future output increases if market conditions deteriorate. The alliance is scheduled to meet again on August 2 to review supply levels and assess developments in the global energy market before deciding on production plans for the following month.

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