Business
Goldman Sachs Downgrades Mercedes-Benz and Porsche Amid Industry Challenges
Goldman Sachs has downgraded German automotive giants Mercedes-Benz AG and Porsche AG, citing mounting challenges including rising costs, tariff risks, and weakening electric vehicle (EV) profitability. The move underscores growing concerns over the European car industry as it grapples with intensifying market pressures.
In a note released Tuesday, Goldman Sachs analyst George Galliers highlighted a bleak outlook for 2025, driven by higher labor costs, stricter environmental regulations, and dwindling earnings from Chinese joint ventures. The sector, already reeling from a 12% decline in 2024, faces an anticipated 9% earnings drop in 2025 and a further 6% in 2026.
Challenges Facing European Automakers
Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs), a cornerstone of Europe’s strategy to reduce carbon emissions, remain a significant challenge for profitability. Goldman Sachs projects BEV penetration in Europe and the European Free Trade Association to grow from 14.3% in 2024 to 19% in 2025, driven by regulatory pressures. However, Galliers questioned whether the anticipated sales growth could offset high production costs, which continue to weigh on profit margins.
Another pressing issue is the sharp decline in earnings from Chinese joint ventures. According to Goldman, these earnings fell 36% year-on-year in 2024, reflecting broader difficulties faced by Western automakers in the world’s largest car market. Notably, Ford and General Motors have already seen their Chinese operations become unprofitable, raising concerns that European manufacturers could face a similar fate.
Downgrade Details
Goldman Sachs downgraded Porsche SE from a “Buy” to a “Sell” rating, citing limited growth prospects and ongoing financial risks. Galliers noted that softening demand for BEVs in Western markets and challenges in China could dampen Porsche’s outlook for 2025. Additionally, high leverage and Volkswagen’s restructuring efforts are expected to hinder near-term financial improvements.
Mercedes-Benz AG was downgraded from “Buy” to “Neutral.” The report pointed to declining demand for luxury vehicles, mixed reception for AMG models, and challenges posed by an ageing S-Class lineup. By the end of Q3 2024, Mercedes’ car division had seen a 44% decline in adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT), with a further 14% drop forecasted for 2025 before a modest recovery in 2026.
Despite these setbacks, the report highlighted opportunities for Mercedes in autonomous driving technology and its partnership with Nvidia. Advancements in these areas, coupled with shareholder return strategies, could provide a brighter long-term outlook.
Tariff Risks and Industry Uncertainty
Trade tensions and tariff risks further complicate the industry’s recovery. The European Union recently imposed tariffs on Chinese-made BEVs, while potential trade disputes with the U.S. could disrupt global supply chains.
A Potential Bright Spot
Amid the challenges, Renault emerged as a potential outperformer in the European auto sector. Goldman cited the French automaker’s focus on cost discipline and strong product pipeline as key strengths.
As European automakers navigate this turbulent landscape, Galliers remarked: “Secular concerns have weighed on auto multiples for almost a decade.” The question remains whether industry leaders can adapt to an evolving market and reclaim their competitive edge.
Business
Global Markets Rise as US–Iran Talks Ease Sentiment, but Oil and Geopolitical Risks Persist
Global financial markets advanced on Friday as investors reacted cautiously to signs of progress in US–Iran negotiations, though ongoing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and elevated oil prices kept risk sentiment fragile.
European equities opened higher across the board. The DAX gained 0.64%, supported by a 3.61% rise in Deutsche Post AG shares. France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.65%, led by a 3.43% jump in STMicroelectronics. In London, the FTSE 100 rose 0.38%, with gains in financial stocks including 3i Group, while the Euro Stoxx 50 added 0.88%.
Currency markets were relatively steady, with the euro trading at $1.161 and the British pound at $1.342 in early European trading. Sentiment was also lifted by better-than-expected economic data from Germany, where first-quarter growth came in at 0.4% year on year and consumer confidence improved heading into June, offering cautious optimism for Europe’s largest economy.
Asian markets followed the upward trend. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 2.7% to 63,339 after data showed inflation easing to a four-year low of 1.4% in April. Taiwan’s Taiex rose 2.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s Shanghai Composite each gained 0.9%. South Korea, Australia, and India also posted modest increases, reflecting broad regional strength.
Wall Street had earlier closed slightly higher. The S&P 500 added 0.2%, the Dow Jones rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq edged up 0.1%. However, technology stocks showed mixed signals, with Nvidia falling 1.8% despite strong quarterly results, as investors weighed valuations against broader market uncertainty.
Oil markets remained the key source of volatility. Brent crude climbed 2.3% to $104.97 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate rose 1.8% to $98.10. Prices remain significantly above pre-conflict levels, driven by continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil flows pass.
Shipping through the strategic waterway remains constrained, with limited signs of recovery as diplomatic negotiations continue without resolution. Analysts say markets are highly sensitive to developments in talks between Washington and Tehran, with ING commodities strategists noting that optimism exists but uncertainty dominates trading conditions.
Geopolitical tensions also weighed on policy discussions in Washington, where a planned congressional vote on war powers legislation was postponed amid insufficient support.
In bond markets, US Treasury yields eased slightly to 4.57% after earlier spikes driven by inflation concerns linked to energy prices. The movement reflected ongoing caution among investors balancing growth expectations with persistent geopolitical risk.
Corporate earnings added a bright spot in Asia, where Lenovo Group surged more than 20% after reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly revenue of $21.6 billion, driven by robust performance in its PC and smart devices division.
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