The year 2024, heralded as the “year of democracy,” may be remembered instead as the year incumbents faced unprecedented voter backlash. In a historic first, every governing party in developed countries lost vote share during elections this year, according to a Financial Times analysis.
Once considered a cornerstone of political advantage, incumbency is losing its protective edge. The adage “better the devil you know” appears to have given way to “throw the rascals out.” This shift has upended the political landscape, with voters increasingly turning away from sitting governments.
Global Volatility Hits Wealthy Democracies
For decades, wealthy democracies were marked by political stability, with power alternating between mainstream parties over extended periods. Emerging democracies, in contrast, saw more frequent shifts in power due to weaker party systems and insurgent challengers.
However, this distinction is fading. Ben Ansell, a professor at the University of Oxford, noted that volatility now defines even the most developed democracies. “They’ve become like Latin American democracies or like India used to be. Now it hurts to be an incumbent. That’s quite new,” he told CNN.
The Inflation Factor
One of the primary culprits for this year’s anti-incumbent wave was inflation. Following the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, global inflation soared to levels unseen since the 1990s, driven by supply chain disruptions and rebounding demand.
The economic toll, though rooted in global factors, landed squarely on the shoulders of national governments. “Unemployment weakens governments, but inflation kills them,” Ansell observed. The political fallout has been severe, with voters across continents holding leaders accountable for rising living costs.
Yet, some nations bucked the trend. In Mexico, the Morena party maintained power by implementing price controls on basic groceries, a measure renewed in 2023. While controversial among mainstream economists, such interventions may offer a blueprint for combating inflation’s political consequences.
A Changing Voter Landscape
Inflation alone does not account for the upheaval. Structural and cultural shifts are also driving volatility. Roberto Foa of the University of Cambridge highlighted the erosion of partisan loyalty, with voters increasingly switching allegiances between elections.
This fluidity has paved the way for unconventional political actors who defy traditional norms. Vicente Valentim of the European University Institute noted that previously stigmatized views, such as election denialism and anti-immigration sentiment, are becoming normalized.
Simultaneously, voters have adopted a consumer-like approach to politics, demanding instant satisfaction and greater choice. As Ansell remarked, the era of choosing between two dominant parties feels “mid-20th century” in today’s world of boundless consumer options.
The Road Ahead
While rising inflation has fueled voter discontent, stabilization may offer some respite for future incumbents. However, the cultural and structural forces reshaping democracies suggest that political volatility may remain the norm for years to come.