Business
Turkey Raises 2026 Inflation Forecast to 28.4% as Middle East War Hits Outlook
Turkey has raised its forecast for year-end inflation, with the government citing the economic impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East as a major factor behind the revision.
Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz announced on Sunday that inflation is now expected to reach 28.4% by the end of 2026. He made the announcement while presenting Turkey’s medium-term economic programme for 2027-2029.
“We expect inflation to start declining again in the fourth quarter of 2026 and to reach 28.4% by the end of the year,” Yilmaz said in a televised address.
The new projection represents a significant increase from the government’s previous target. Under last year’s medium-term programme for 2026-2028, officials had forecast year-end inflation at 16%.
The latest programme projects inflation will continue to decline after 2026, reaching 21% in 2027, 13.5% in 2028 and 9% in 2029.
Official figures showed Turkey’s annual inflation rate eased slightly to 31.51% in August from 31.75% in July. Despite the recent decline, inflation remains substantially above the government’s revised year-end target.
Yilmaz attributed much of the change in the outlook to the effects of the war in the Middle East, which has disrupted regional trade and contributed to increased economic uncertainty.
“According to our central bank, the direct and indirect effects of the war on inflation have been estimated at approximately seven percentage points,” he said.
Turkey has been battling elevated inflation for several years. Annual inflation has remained above 30% since December 2021, while the rate reached a peak of more than 75% in May 2024 before beginning a gradual decline.
The government continues to identify bringing inflation under control as the central objective of its economic programme.
Yilmaz said authorities had made significant progress through the policies introduced to address price pressures, pointing to the decline from the peak recorded in 2024.
“Inflation, which had risen to 75.5% in May 2024, has begun to show a clear downward trend as a result of the policies we have implemented,” he said.
The revised forecast highlights the challenges facing Turkey as it attempts to sustain disinflation while dealing with external shocks.
Officials are nevertheless maintaining their longer-term objective of bringing inflation into single digits by 2029. The government expects the rate to fall below 30% during 2026 and continue declining over the following three years as economic policies take effect.
The new medium-term programme will guide Turkey’s economic policy through 2029, with inflation control remaining a key priority as authorities seek greater price stability and stronger economic conditions.
Business
EDF Energy in Talks to Buy So Energy Customer Base in UK Market Shake-Up
EDF Energy is reportedly in talks to acquire So Energy’s customer base as the British energy market enters another period of consolidation.
The French-owned energy company is among several parties negotiating to buy the smaller UK supplier, according to Sky News. At least one other bidder is also understood to be involved in the process, although its identity has not been disclosed.
If EDF succeeds, the transaction is expected to focus mainly on So Energy’s customers rather than involve a full takeover of the company.
So Energy has about 300,000 household electricity customers and was established in 2015. Ireland’s Electricity Supply Board (ESB) acquired a controlling stake in the supplier in 2021.
ESB began reviewing its ownership of So Energy this summer and appointed PwC to oversee the sale process. The Irish utility has publicly confirmed that it is considering options for the business.
A So Energy spokesperson said in July that ESB had “initiated a process to evaluate potential divestment options for So Energy” following a strategic review. The company said ESB intended to focus on its core operations.
An acquisition by EDF would add to the continuing restructuring of Britain’s energy retail sector. The market was once dominated by a group of major suppliers, but companies such as Octopus Energy and British Gas owner Centrica have established stronger positions.
Other established suppliers, including ScottishPower, are also facing a more competitive market as customers increasingly move between providers.
Buying a customer portfolio can offer a quicker and less complicated route to expansion than purchasing an entire supplier. A successful deal would allow EDF to add hundreds of thousands of accounts while avoiding some of the costs and operational challenges associated with absorbing a complete business.
The potential transaction comes as British households continue to face pressure from energy costs.
Ofgem increased the domestic energy price cap by 4 percent for the autumn period, taking the annual figure for a typical household to £1,723. The increase means many households will face higher bills as energy companies reassess their strategies.
Government policy is also focused on reducing household costs. Prime Minister Andy Burnham announced plans during his first week in office to remove VAT from domestic energy bills as part of wider efforts to ease the cost-of-living burden.
The proposed So Energy transaction remains subject to negotiations, and no agreement has been reached. The outcome could add another significant change to Britain’s increasingly competitive energy retail market.
Business
Europe Faces Prolonged High Fuel Prices as Diesel Supplies Tighten
European motorists could face persistently high petrol and diesel prices as tight refining capacity, low fuel inventories and disrupted international trade keep pressure on the market.
Oil prices have moved sharply in recent months as hopes for peace between Iran and the United States have shifted. Brent crude, the international benchmark, has traded between roughly $73 and $126 a barrel since the end of February and stood at about $95 on Friday.
However, crude prices are only part of the story. European fuel costs are also being driven by the availability of refined products, particularly diesel.
Petrol and diesel still dominate Europe’s passenger car fleet despite the growing popularity of electric vehicles. Data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association shows that petrol cars account for 49.2% of vehicles on EU roads, while diesel represents 38.4%. Together, they make up 87.6% of the fleet.
Fuel prices remain close to record levels despite temporary tax cuts and other government support measures introduced in some European countries following the energy crisis.
During the week beginning August 31, petrol averaged €1.95 per litre across the EU, according to the European Commission’s Weekly Oil Bulletin. That was around 4% below the June 2022 peak of €2.03. Diesel averaged €2.04, roughly 3% below its record of €2.11 reached in April 2026.
Analysts say the main problem is increasingly the shortage of refined fuel rather than crude oil itself.
“Crude may be available, but the capacity to convert it into the right products, particularly diesel, has become much tighter,” said Sumit Ritolia, lead analyst for refining supply and modelling at Kpler.
Europe has become heavily dependent on imported diesel and jet fuel since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted established supply routes. Supplies from the United States, India and the Middle East have filled part of the gap, but conflicts and attacks on refineries have placed additional strain on global markets.
European inventories are also low. Petrol stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp trading hub fell to 752,000 tonnes in late August, their lowest level since September 2021, according to Insights Global.
Refineries in Europe and the United States are operating at high rates, leaving limited spare capacity if another disruption occurs. Autumn maintenance could add to the pressure, while hurricanes could threaten refinery operations along the US Gulf Coast.
Petrol prices may ease as summer driving demand declines and production switches to cheaper winter fuel. Diesel is more vulnerable because winter demand and tighter fuel specifications could keep margins high into the colder months.
Higher exports from India and China could offer some relief, but analysts say sustained additional supplies will be needed.
A reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a recovery in Middle Eastern fuel exports could quickly lower crude prices. Yet diesel prices may take longer to fall as inventories need to be rebuilt and refined-product supplies restored.
Business
US Imposes Tariffs of Up to 100% on Drones as Washington Targets Chinese Supply Chains
New US tariffs of up to 100% on drones and selected drone components took effect on Thursday as Washington seeks to reduce the country’s dependence on Chinese suppliers in an industry dominated by China.
The duties were introduced under an order signed by US President Donald Trump in August. The White House said the measures were aimed at addressing “the national security threat posed by imports of drones and their components” while strengthening domestic supply chains.
Drones have become increasingly important for military operations, surveillance and critical infrastructure. Their widespread use during the war in Ukraine has highlighted their role in modern warfare and demonstrated how important access to reliable drone technology can be on the battlefield.
US officials have raised concerns about the country’s dependence on Chinese-made drones and components, particularly products manufactured by DJI, the world’s largest commercial drone maker. They argue that reliance on foreign technology could create risks involving disruption, espionage and access to equipment during a conflict.
Under the new tariff structure, drones with a takeoff weight of more than 25 kilograms will face a 100% duty. The same rate applies to drones equipped with thermal imaging capabilities and certain docking stations.
Smaller drones will face a 25% tariff.
Some drone components classified as less sensitive will also be subject to additional duties, although those measures will not take effect until February 9 next year.
The new tariffs are part of a broader effort by the Trump administration to encourage domestic production and reduce exposure to overseas supply chains in sectors considered strategically important.
China has strongly opposed the measures. Beijing called on Washington to withdraw the tariffs shortly after they were announced.
A Chinese commerce ministry spokesman said the duties would “disrupt the global drone supply chain and further undermine a fair and competitive market environment.” He said China firmly opposed the move.
DJI has a particularly strong position in the global drone industry. The company, which was founded in 2006, has accounted for more than two-thirds of the worldwide drone market in recent years, according to several industry studies.
The company has also faced increasing scrutiny from US authorities. Since 2022, DJI has been included on a US government list of Chinese companies considered linked to China’s military, restricting its access to certain US technologies.
DJI has challenged its inclusion on the list and has rejected the allegations surrounding its classification.
The new tariffs could increase costs for US consumers, businesses and organisations that rely on imported drone equipment. At the same time, Washington hopes the measures will encourage manufacturers to establish or expand production inside the United States.
The policy marks another step in the growing technology and trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, with drones emerging as a strategically important industry because of their expanding role in defence, security and commercial operations.
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