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Oil Prices Jump as Middle East Conflict Intensifies, Rippling Through Global Markets

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Oil prices surged on Monday as renewed military escalation in the Middle East heightened fears of disruption to global energy supplies and rattled investor sentiment across financial markets.

Crude benchmarks climbed sharply in early trading after Israel launched airstrikes targeting central and western Iran in response to missile fire. Iranian state television reported explosions across several cities, including Isfahan, Tabriz and Tehran, though officials did not immediately provide details on the extent of the damage.

The latest flare-up comes despite diplomatic efforts last week, when American and Iranian negotiators reportedly reached a tentative understanding to extend a ceasefire. However, the agreement has yet to be finalised, and renewed strikes have placed additional strain on already fragile de-escalation efforts.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose by $3.50 to $96.59 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate also advanced, gaining $3.48 to $94.02 a barrel at the time of reporting. Traders said the gains reflected heightened concerns over supply risks in a region critical to global oil flows.

The impact of rising geopolitical tension extended well beyond energy markets, with Asian equities coming under pressure. South Korea’s Kospi fell 6.8% to 7,605.42, weighed down by declines in major technology stocks including Samsung Electronics, which dropped 7%, and SK Hynix, which slipped 3.3%.

In Taiwan, the Taiex index declined 3.8%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 1.3% to 24,631.64. The Shanghai Composite also weakened, falling 1.1% to 3,984.75. Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 4.2% to 63,804.77, as investors reacted to both geopolitical uncertainty and revised domestic growth expectations.

Japanese authorities recently downgraded their annualised first-quarter growth estimate to 1.8%, down from 2.1%, reflecting softer-than-expected economic momentum.

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Elsewhere, trading in Australia was closed for the King’s Birthday holiday. On Wall Street, markets ended the previous week lower, with the S&P 500 falling 2.6% to 7,383.74, marking its steepest one-day decline since October. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.4% to 50,866.78, while the Nasdaq Composite slumped 4.2% to 25,709.43.

Bond markets also moved sharply after the US reported stronger-than-expected job creation, adding 172,000 positions in May. The data reinforced expectations that inflationary pressures remain persistent despite broader economic uncertainty.

Yields on US Treasuries rose, with the 10-year note climbing to 4.54% and the 2-year yield increasing to 4.16%, reflecting shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy. The central bank has maintained steady interest rates as it continues to assess the balance between inflation control and economic resilience.

In currency markets, the US dollar edged higher against the Japanese yen at 160.35, while the euro traded slightly stronger at $1.1530.

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Rising Inflation in Europe Outpaces Wages as Middle East Conflict Fuels Cost-of-Living Pressures

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Inflation is climbing again across Europe in the aftermath of renewed instability in the Middle East, while wage growth in job postings is failing to keep pace, leaving many workers with shrinking purchasing power.

Data from Eurostat shows that inflation in the European Union reached 3.2% in April 2026, the highest level since early 2024, with preliminary estimates indicating continued increases into May. The rise marks a reversal of the easing trend seen through most of 2024 and early 2025, when price growth had stabilised below 3%.

The renewed inflationary pressure follows global energy disruptions linked to the recent US-Israel-Iran conflict, which has pushed oil and gas prices higher and fed through into consumer costs. Earlier inflation shocks in 2022, triggered by the war in Ukraine and energy shortages, had already weakened household finances across the continent.

However, wage growth has not kept up. According to job postings tracked by Indeed, advertised salary increases across the eurozone are now lagging behind inflation, reversing gains made since late 2023. In April 2026, posted wage growth stood at 2.3%, compared with inflation of 3.0%, widening the gap between earnings and living costs.

Economists say this shift has eroded real wages across much of Europe. Aubrey Woessner, associate economist at Indeed Hiring Lab, noted that “inflationary pressures from the global energy price shock have started to show in the European data, eroding real wage gains.”

Earlier in the year, the situation appeared more stable. In January 2026, posted wages grew by 2.4% while inflation stood at 1.7%, suggesting modest real income growth. That balance has since reversed, with rising energy prices driving consumer costs higher at a faster rate than salaries.

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The impact varies across Europe. The United Kingdom remains one of the few economies where wage growth still exceeds inflation, with posted wages rising 4% year-on-year compared with inflation of 2.8%. However, analysts warn that even there, real wage growth is slowing.

Pawel Adrjan, director of economic research at Indeed, said the UK still retains a “real-wage cushion” that much of the eurozone has already lost, although he cautioned that weakening hiring conditions could erode gains if energy prices remain elevated.

In Germany and Ireland, wage growth also slightly outpaces inflation, but only marginally. Italy and France, by contrast, are experiencing the sharpest pressure on household incomes. In France, inflation has climbed to 2.5% while wage growth remains at 1.1%. In Italy, inflation has consistently outstripped wage increases, deepening the gap in 2026.

With inflation rising and pay growth stagnating, economists warn that household budgets across Europe are likely to remain under pressure in the months ahead.

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SpaceX Targets Record $75 Billion IPO in Landmark Market Debut

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SpaceX has unveiled plans for a historic stock market debut, seeking to raise up to $75 billion through an initial public offering that could become the largest IPO ever recorded and further cement founder Elon Musk’s position among the world’s wealthiest individuals.

The aerospace company, formally known as Space Exploration Technologies Corp., announced on Wednesday that it intends to offer 555.6 million shares at $135 each. The proposed sale would value the company at approximately $1.77 trillion, placing it among the most valuable publicly traded firms globally.

If completed as planned, the offering would surpass the record $26 billion raised by Saudi Aramco during its 2019 market debut. The listing is expected to draw significant attention from investors eager to gain exposure to one of the most influential private companies in the technology and aerospace sectors.

The IPO would substantially increase the value of Musk’s holdings in the company. Estimates suggest his stake could rise by more than $220 billion, potentially pushing his paper net worth beyond the $1 trillion mark. Despite the public offering, Musk is expected to maintain firm control over SpaceX through Class B shares, which carry enhanced voting rights. Company filings indicate he would retain more than 80 percent of voting power after the listing.

The ambitious offering comes despite ongoing financial losses. Regulatory filings show SpaceX recorded an operating loss of $2.6 billion last year on revenue of $18.7 billion. The company reported that losses have continued into the early months of 2026 as it invests heavily in expansion projects.

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SpaceX said proceeds from the IPO would help finance a range of long-term initiatives, including the expansion of its Starlink satellite internet network, development of advanced rocket technology and infrastructure investments tied to artificial intelligence. The company also reaffirmed its long-term vision of establishing a permanent human settlement on Mars, a goal Musk has championed for years.

Artificial intelligence has emerged as a key component of SpaceX’s future strategy. In its filing, the company highlighted the growing global AI market and outlined plans to integrate the technology across various operations. Some proposed projects, including space-based data centers, remain in early stages and have yet to be proven commercially viable.

Industry analysts view the SpaceX listing as a major test for public markets after several years of relatively subdued IPO activity. The offering could also pave the way for other high-profile technology firms to pursue public listings.

SpaceX plans to trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol “SPCX,” with shares potentially beginning trading as early as next week. Investors will be closely watching whether the company can justify its enormous valuation while pursuing its ambitious goals in space exploration, satellite communications and artificial intelligence.

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EBRD Cuts Growth Forecast as Middle East Conflict Drives Inflation and Energy Shock

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Economic growth across regions covered by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is set to slow more sharply than previously expected, as rising energy prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East push inflation higher and weaken momentum across emerging markets.

In its latest Regional Economic Prospects report, the EBRD said aggregate growth across its regions is now projected at 3.1% in 2026, down from 3.4% in 2025 and 0.5 percentage points below its earlier February forecast. Growth is expected to recover modestly to 3.6% in 2027, although that too has been revised slightly lower.

The bank, which finances projects across central and eastern Europe, Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, said the outlook has been disrupted by surging oil and gas prices, instability in shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, and widening energy cost gaps between Europe and the United States.

The EBRD estimated that growth across its economies slowed to 2.9% in the first quarter of 2026, with weaker-than-expected performance recorded in several large markets including Egypt, Kazakhstan, Romania, Turkey and Ukraine.

Chief economist Beata Javorcik said the latest shock has hit already fragile economies. “The conflict in the Middle East has delivered a new shock to regions already navigating weakness in manufacturing industries and fragile fiscal positions,” she said.

Inflation has also reaccelerated after easing late last year. The EBRD reported that average inflation across its regions rose to 6.4% between February and April 2026, an increase of 1.2 percentage points. Higher energy and food costs were identified as the primary drivers, while currency depreciation against the US dollar added further pressure in several economies.

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The bank warned that inflation could remain elevated for longer than previously expected, particularly in emerging markets where households spend a larger share of income on food and energy compared with advanced economies.

To cushion the impact, nearly two-thirds of EBRD economies have introduced measures such as fuel price caps, tax relief and targeted subsidies. However, the bank cautioned that these steps are placing additional strain on public finances at a time when borrowing costs are already rising.

Higher energy bills, tighter global financial conditions and elevated debt levels are compounding fiscal pressures across many member countries.

Looking ahead, the EBRD warned that a prolonged conflict could further disrupt supply chains, push energy prices higher and weaken investment flows. Such developments, it said, would weigh on already subdued growth prospects across its regions.

For now, policymakers face a difficult balance between supporting households and maintaining fiscal stability, as external shocks continue to reshape the economic outlook.

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