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Israel and U.S. Prepare for Potential Iranian Attack Amid Ceasefire Efforts
As efforts to secure a ceasefire in Gaza gain momentum, Israel and the United States are preparing for a possible Iranian attack on Israel. This comes as negotiations between Israel and Hamas are expected to resume later this week, with mediators urging both sides to return to the table to finalize a ceasefire agreement.
The renewed push for talks comes after recent assassinations of key Hezbollah and Hamas leaders, which Iran and its Lebanese ally have vowed to avenge. The ceasefire negotiations are set to take place in Cairo or Doha on Thursday, with the United States, Egypt, and Qatar planning to present a “final bridging proposal” to both parties.
The assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, for which Iran blames Israel, has further complicated the situation. Although Israel has not confirmed its involvement, the killing has heightened the risk of an Iranian retaliation that could disrupt the ceasefire talks.
In a joint statement, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom urged both Israel and Hamas to reach an agreement, warning of the potential for a broader regional conflict. The White House echoed these concerns, with National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby indicating that the U.S. is preparing for a possible Iranian attack in the coming days.
Despite these threats, U.S. State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel expressed confidence that the ceasefire talks would continue. While Hamas has yet to confirm its participation, it has signaled a willingness to strike a deal.
Following Haniyeh’s assassination, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued warnings of retaliation, emphasizing that the killing would not go unpunished. However, there are indications that Iran may delay its response if a ceasefire is achieved.
In anticipation of a possible Iranian attack, the U.S. has bolstered its military presence in the region, deploying a guided missile submarine and accelerating the arrival of a carrier strike group. Additionally, Israel has suspended vacation flights for military personnel as it braces for potential conflict.
Meanwhile, the situation in Gaza remains dire, with continued Israeli strikes leading to significant civilian casualties. Over the weekend, an Israeli attack on a mosque and school in Gaza City killed at least 93 Palestinians, drawing international condemnation.
As ceasefire talks approach, pressure is mounting on both Israel and Hamas to reach an agreement and prevent further escalation in the region. However, the involvement of hardline factions within Hamas and the looming threat of Iranian retaliation continue to pose significant challenges to achieving peace.
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Iran Says Hormuz Can Reopen Within Seven Days as Oil Exports Come Under Pressure
Iran’s military said it retained full control of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, while Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the strategic waterway could be fully reopened within seven days if Tehran’s conditions were met and hostile measures against the country were lifted.
The statements came as Iran faced growing economic pressure, with the rial falling to record lows, Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad resigning and the United States claiming that Tehran had not loaded any crude onto tankers during September.
Brigadier General Aziz Jafari, commander of Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Joint Air Defence Headquarters, said all movements through the Strait remained under the control of the Iranian armed forces despite changes in US tactics.
“All movements (in Hormuz) are under the control of the armed forces of the Islamic Republic,” Jafari said.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that Iran had not loaded crude oil onto tankers during September, arguing that the Trump administration was targeting Tehran’s main source of revenue.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian acknowledged in August that restrictions were disrupting oil exports, saying the country had previously been able to sell oil but was now unable to do so at the same level.
Paknejad’s resignation was officially attributed to family and personal matters. However, his departure came amid speculation about the impact of reduced oil exports on government finances. Before his resignation was announced, Paknejad said in a video carried by Iranian media that revenue from oil already sold would be collected and that the process would continue.
The acting oil minister has pledged to maximise production and maintain exports through new strategies.
Despite pressure on Iranian exports, oil shipments from other parts of the region remained high. Ship-tracking company Kpler estimated crude exports from the region excluding Iran at between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day during the final week of September, compared with a pre-war regional average of about 18 million barrels per day.
Iran’s currency has also come under severe pressure. The euro rose above 300,000 tomans on the informal market, while the US dollar reached 270,000 tomans, more than double its level of about 135,000 tomans at the beginning of the year. One toman is equal to 10 rials.
The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported at least one attack each day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2.
Araghchi told foreign ambassadors in Tehran that the conflict could not be resolved militarily and called for negotiations based on fairness. He warned that any renewed military confrontation would trigger a stronger Iranian response.
Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Tehran had received US proposals through intermediaries but rejected what he described as one-sided demands.
He said the Strait would remain closed until Iran’s seven conditions, based on the Islamabad memorandum, were met.
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