Despite providing military and economic support to its allies in recent years, Iran found itself isolated during its own time of crisis, as key BRICS members failed to offer tangible assistance amid Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iranian targets.
While Iran has supplied Russia with drones and missiles for use in Ukraine, and sold discounted oil to China, both Moscow and Beijing stopped short of aiding Tehran when its nuclear facilities came under attack. Instead, they issued statements of condemnation but offered no military or financial support.
The developments have raised questions about the strength of the informal alliance among Iran, Russia, China, and North Korea. Though often grouped together in opposition to the U.S. and its allies, analysts say the bloc lacks meaningful coordination or a unified strategic doctrine.
“These countries don’t have the same institutional structures or values that bind U.S.-led alliances,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “They are pacifist toward each other’s wars and prioritize national interests.”
Among the group, only Russia and North Korea have a formal mutual defense agreement. Pyongyang has even deployed troops to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In contrast, Iran received little more than words during its confrontation with Israel.
China’s stance, in particular, underscores its desire to maintain neutrality in Middle East conflicts. President Xi Jinping condemned U.S. military actions and called for calm, but refrained from backing Iran. Beijing’s priority appears to be protecting its oil ties with regional powers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE — Iran’s longtime rivals.
This approach mirrors China’s broader diplomatic strategy. In March 2023, it brokered a détente between Iran and Saudi Arabia, positioning itself as a neutral actor in regional affairs. Analysts believe China is carefully watching the evolving balance of power in the Middle East, especially following Iran’s weakened posture and the collapse of its ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Russia, too, appears reluctant to jeopardize its relationships with other Middle Eastern countries, including Israel and Arab states. “Putin will sacrifice Iran if it serves his interests,” said Cold War historian Sergey Radchenko. “And Tehran knows it.”
While the shared anti-American stance remains a common thread, the lack of unified military support has exposed the limitations of the so-called BRICS axis. “This is still an alliance, even if it lacks a mutual defense pact,” said Yun Sun, a researcher at the Stimson Center. “But cooperation is strategic, not sacrificial.”
Observers agree that Iran’s theocratic leadership complicates deeper alliances. Both China and Russia, with secular governments, view Islamic fundamentalism with caution. Chinese leaders, in particular, remain wary of Iran’s unpredictability and dependence.
As Tehran reassesses its foreign policy, the recent conflict may serve as a sobering reminder of the limits of its alliances — and the realities of a world increasingly shaped by transactional geopolitics rather than ideological loyalty.