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EU Holds Steady on €650 Billion Defence Spending Estimate Amid Mixed Member State Response

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The European Commission is maintaining its projection that EU member states could invest up to €650 billion in defence over the next four years, despite fewer than half of the bloc’s governments formally requesting the fiscal leeway needed to ramp up spending.

The estimate, initially presented in March as part of the Commission’s “Readiness 2030” defence strategy, was designed to support the temporary activation of the “national escape clause” in the EU’s Stability and Growth Pact. This mechanism allows member states to exceed the usual 3% of GDP deficit threshold without penalty, provided the extra spending is directed toward defence in light of the current geopolitical climate.

By Friday, only 13 out of 27 EU member states had submitted formal requests to use the clause. These include Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, and Slovenia. The Commission had asked for coordinated submissions by April 30, but clarified that this was a “soft deadline,” and late applications would still be considered ahead of its Spring Semester Package report due June 4.

Speaking to reporters, Commission spokesperson Balazs Ujvari acknowledged that the €650 billion figure was a “ballpark estimate” based on assumptions made before knowing how many member states would participate. “We wanted to give an order of magnitude of the fiscal space that could be made available,” he explained, adding that a more accurate estimate will only be possible next year after 2025 defence expenditure data is collected.

To gain approval, member states must demonstrate exceptional circumstances justifying the deviation, show that the deviation does not threaten medium-term fiscal sustainability, and prove that their spending is linked directly to defence.

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Some of the requesting states, including Belgium, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia, are already under Excessive Deficit Procedures due to deficits exceeding the 3% cap. In such cases, the Commission said it would factor in the flexibility provided by the escape clause during its assessments.

Separately, the Commission is also preparing to launch the SAFE programme, offering up to €150 billion in loans for defence spending through jointly procured, EU-made weapons systems. These funds, unlike national budgets, will be centrally raised and distributed, aiming to foster defence industry cooperation across the bloc.

The SAFE initiative is still under review by the Council, with an application window expected to open six months after its formal adoption.

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Romania Shoots Down Third Drone in Three Days as Shahed-Type Aircraft Linked to Russia

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Romania has shot down a third drone in three days as the country faces a growing number of unmanned aircraft incidents linked to the war in neighbouring Ukraine.

Romanian President Nicușor Dan said an F-16 fighter jet intercepted and destroyed a drone over Romania’s territorial waters on Sunday morning. The incident occurred at about 10:13 a.m. in the Sulina-Chilia area of the Danube Delta, close to the Ukrainian border.

“I would like to congratulate the Romanian pilots and ground crews on the professionalism, courage and efficiency with which they carry out their missions,” Dan wrote on social media.

Romanian authorities had reported another drone being shot down by an F-16 on Saturday. The aircraft was intercepted around 10 kilometres west of the village of Sfântu Gheorghe in eastern Romania.

The Defence Ministry said two fighter jets had been sent to identify and intercept the target. The drone was then destroyed in an unpopulated area near the border.

A third drone was shot down by a Romanian F-16 at around 11 a.m. on Friday.

Romania’s Prosecutor General’s Office has determined that the drone destroyed on Friday was a Shahed-type aircraft used by Russian forces in their war against Ukraine. Investigations into the drones shot down on Saturday and Sunday remain ongoing.

Dan said it was “intolerable” for Russia to continue violating Romanian airspace.

“Such actions are unacceptable and we are treating them with the utmost seriousness, alongside our allies,” he said.

Romania, a NATO member on the alliance’s eastern flank, has faced growing security concerns because of its position along the Black Sea and its border with Ukraine. The country has reported an increasing number of drone incidents since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

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In May, a Russian drone carrying explosives crashed into an apartment building in Galați, causing a fire on the roof and injuring two people.

A month later, a Ukrainian sea drone exploded in the Romanian port of Constanta. Ukraine’s military said the vessel had veered off course after Russian electronic warfare interference.

The repeated incidents have increased concerns in Bucharest over the possibility of the war spilling across national borders, even as Romania and its NATO allies continue to strengthen surveillance and air defence measures in the region.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has described such incidents as a direct consequence of Russia’s war against Ukraine.

The latest drone activity has placed further pressure on Romanian authorities to monitor the country’s airspace and territorial waters as fighting continues across the border.

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Chickenpox Outbreak Spreads Through Gaza Camps as Overcrowding and Vaccine Gaps Raise Alarm

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A chickenpox outbreak is spreading rapidly through displacement camps in Gaza, with around 9,300 cases recorded across more than 130 health facilities in just two weeks.

Doctors and health workers say the actual number of infections is likely much higher because many patients are treated in tents or local clinics and never reach hospitals. The UN health cluster attributed the rise to severe overcrowding, high summer temperatures and worsening access to clean water.

More than half of the reported cases were recorded in Khan Younis governorate. Health teams also registered more than 18,000 new cases of infectious skin diseases across Gaza during the same week, including scabies, head lice and impetigo.

Isolation, which is recommended for children with chickenpox, is nearly impossible in many displacement camps. Families of six or more often live together in tents measuring only a few square metres, while in some locations multiple families share a single tent.

Hamada Abu Ghali, who is displaced in Nuseirat, said doctors told his daughter to stay apart from other family members after she was diagnosed with chickenpox. But the family had no space to follow the advice.

“Before the war we had a house and rooms, but today all of us are in one tent,” he said.

Ahmed Abu Hussein, displaced in Deir al-Balah, said children continued to play together because families could not keep them inside cramped shelters.

“We can’t control them or keep them inside the tent, so the infection ends up spreading to the whole family,” he said.

At Al-Rantisi Children’s Hospital, paediatric consultant Dr Sharif Mattar said official figures probably represented only a fraction of the outbreak. Many children are treated in displacement sites and primary healthcare centres, leaving their cases out of hospital statistics.

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Nurse Sheimaa Hajji said health centres were seeing more children with widespread rashes. Treatment has largely focused on easing itching and preventing secondary bacterial infections, but supplies are running short.

The outbreak is being worsened by a vaccination crisis. Bassam Zaqout, director of Medical Relief in Gaza, said thousands of children born during the war had been unable to complete routine vaccination schedules. Restrictions on vaccine deliveries have also limited efforts to improve community protection.

Health officials have warned that chickenpox can pose additional risks to pregnant women, while maternity services in Gaza remain severely limited.

The World Health Organisation said the health system continues to operate with restricted capacity because of damaged facilities, shortages of medicines and a lack of medical staff.

UN field teams have also reported unsafe water supplies and sewage flowing around displacement sites.

The UN health cluster has increased the distribution of fever medicines, anti-itch treatments and antibiotics for bacterial complications. Health education teams have also been deployed.

Aid agencies warn that these efforts will not be enough without a major increase in medical supplies, clean water and hygiene materials reaching Gaza.

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Wildfires Force Mass Evacuations in France and Spain as Southern Europe Battles Record Heat

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Wildfires continued to spread across parts of France and Spain on Friday, forcing thousands of people to leave their homes as emergency services struggled to contain blazes fuelled by extreme heat and dry conditions.

French authorities ordered residents in three suburbs of Bordeaux to evacuate as a major fire continued to burn across the Gironde department. People in Le Haillan, Eysines and Mérignac were told to leave immediately using designated evacuation routes.

The fire, described by officials as unprecedented, has burned around 19,000 hectares since it began near Saumos on Tuesday. Around 110,000 people have been evacuated as the flames moved towards Le Porge and Lège-Cap-Ferret before spreading east towards the Bordeaux metropolitan area.

Smoke from the fires was visible across the Arcachon Basin. Bordeaux authorities opened the Parc des Expositions exhibition centre to accommodate people forced from their homes.

Two firefighters died while battling the blaze in Mérignac on Tuesday. French President Emmanuel Macron paid tribute to the firefighters and expressed condolences to their families and colleagues.

France has requested international assistance through the European Union’s civil protection mechanism. The EU said aircraft and helicopters from Portugal, Croatia, the Czech Republic and Slovakia would be sent to help tackle the fires. Sweden also announced plans to send firefighting aircraft.

The crisis has placed additional pressure on emergency services already dealing with widespread fires across southern Europe.

In Spain, wildfires continued to burn in the Madrid region and the province of Ávila, forcing thousands of people to flee. The Spanish government declared a national emergency as fires threatened communities.

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Isabel Díaz Ayuso, president of the Community of Madrid, described the blaze affecting the region as the worst in its local history.

Spain’s Civil Guard said 650 officers, 60 vehicles and two helicopters had been deployed to support evacuation operations and emergency efforts.

The fires have also caused disruption in other areas near the capital, with residents forced to leave as flames approached towns and villages.

According to figures from the European Union, 1,254 fires have burned approximately 254,388 hectares across Europe since the start of the year. The scale of the destruction has raised renewed concerns about the impact of extreme heat, drought and increasingly dangerous wildfire conditions across the continent.

Emergency crews in France and Spain continue to battle the fires, while authorities have warned residents to follow evacuation orders as changing winds and high temperatures could cause the flames to spread rapidly.

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