China’s exports posted their first year-on-year growth since March, rising by 5.8% in June to $325 billion, according to figures released by the General Administration of Customs on Monday. The rebound signals a shift in momentum for the world’s second-largest economy as it looks to strengthen trade ties beyond the United States.
The June figure surpassed May’s 4.8% growth and marked a notable improvement from April’s 8.1% decline. Imports also showed signs of recovery, rising 1.1% year-on-year in June, reversing a 3.4% drop in May.
Despite the broader rebound, exports to the United States continued to decline, falling by 16.1% in June. However, the drop was less severe than May’s sharp 34.5% fall, reflecting a slightly easing trade slowdown with Washington. Over the first six months of the year, exports to the US declined by 9.9% in yuan terms, while imports dropped 7.7%.
In contrast, China increased its shipments to other global markets amid growing efforts to diversify its trade portfolio during a time of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Trade with Africa, Latin America, the European Union, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) saw noticeable gains in the first half of the year. Analysts say these alternative trade relationships are becoming increasingly important as Beijing tries to reduce its reliance on the American market.
The trade data comes on the heels of a new agreement between the US and China reached in late June, following mutual decisions in May to reduce tariffs. However, tensions remain high as new levies loom on the horizon. US President Donald Trump is expected to implement “reciprocal” tariffs starting August 1, including a 20% duty on Vietnamese exports and a 40% duty on goods suspected to be re-routed Chinese products. These measures are aimed at curbing transshipment practices and could directly impact Chinese trade.
Adding to the strain, the US last week announced a 50% tariff on copper imports, in addition to existing duties on cars, aluminium, and steel. Further sector-specific tariffs are reportedly in the pipeline.
China, meanwhile, is counting on export strength to support its economy amid weak domestic demand and an ongoing property sector downturn. The second-quarter GDP figures, due on Tuesday, are expected to hover around the government’s 5% annual growth target.
As global trade dynamics shift, China’s evolving export strategy and its response to escalating US tariffs will be key in determining its economic resilience in the second half of the year.