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Brent Crude Climbs Above $108 as Hormuz Strike and Saudi Pipeline Shutdown Raise Supply Fears

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Brent crude prices climbed above $108 a barrel on Monday as growing disruption around the Strait of Hormuz raised fresh concerns about global oil supplies.

Brent crude for October and November deliveries rose by more than 3% during morning trading, extending gains from the previous week when prices moved back above the $100 mark. US West Texas Intermediate crude for October delivery also advanced, rising about 2.3% to around $102 a barrel.

The latest increase followed Saudi Arabia’s announcement that its East-West oil pipeline had been temporarily shut after drone attacks. The pipeline transports crude across Saudi Arabia to ports on the Red Sea, providing an alternative route that allows exports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

The closure comes as shipping through the strategic waterway faces growing risks. An unnamed merchant vessel was struck in the strait on Sunday, killing one crew member and injuring three others, according to Iranian authorities.

Shipping conditions have changed significantly since the conflict began. Vessels are required to obtain permission from Iran to pass through the waterway, while Tehran is also considering a system for charging transit service fees. Ships that do not comply have faced attacks, while US forces have carried out periodic strikes along Iran’s coastline.

Diplomatic efforts to address the situation have also suffered a setback. Oman postponed planned talks between Iran and Gulf states concerning the future of the waterway, which is one of the world’s most important routes for seaborne oil shipments.

The disruption is already affecting fuel markets beyond the Gulf. In the United States, the national average price of diesel surpassed $6 a gallon on Friday for the first time, rising from about $5.85 a week earlier and roughly 60% above the $3.71 recorded a year ago.

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US petrol prices have also reached record levels, averaging about $4.22 a gallon after rising over the Labor Day weekend.

President Donald Trump has blamed Ukraine for part of the diesel supply pressure, saying Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy should stop targeting Russian diesel infrastructure. Ukraine has attacked more than 20 Russian refinery targets this summer, while Russia responded by banning diesel exports.

According to Lipow Oil Associates, Russia’s export restrictions have removed about 800,000 barrels per day of diesel supply, while disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz have affected around 1.2 million barrels per day.

The broader impact on crude supplies is even greater. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen from about 20 million barrels per day before the war to roughly 7 million. The conflicts have also disrupted refineries representing about 5 million barrels per day of capacity, adding to pressure on global fuel markets.

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Google Plans €13 Billion Investment in Finland Data Centres

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Google is set to invest at least €13 billion in data centres and digital infrastructure in Finland over the next two years, marking the company’s largest single investment in Europe as it expands its capacity for artificial intelligence and other digital services.

The investment will support data centres and related infrastructure in the Finnish municipalities of Hamina, Kajaani, Muhos and Vaala. Google also plans to fund clean energy projects as well as initiatives focused on biodiversity, education, research and workforce development.

The company said the decision reflects Finland’s strong position in developing energy-efficient infrastructure for artificial intelligence. The new facilities will support a range of Google services, including its Gemini chatbot.

Construction is expected to take place during 2027 and 2028. Google estimates the investment could contribute around €3.6 billion annually to Finland’s gross domestic product and support more than 37,000 jobs. About 16,000 of those positions are expected to be linked directly to construction work.

Once construction is completed, Google expects its facilities and related economic activity to support around 7,000 jobs each year. These positions are expected to include technical and facility roles, equipment suppliers and workers in nearby shops, restaurants and other services.

Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo welcomed the announcement, saying the investment demonstrated the country’s strengths and could generate benefits beyond the immediate spending.

“The value of the data economy extends far beyond direct investment into spurring innovation, research and development,” Orpo said. He added that closer cooperation with Google could produce long-term benefits for both sides.

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Why Finland is attracting data centres

Finland’s climate and energy supply are major factors behind its appeal to technology companies. Data centres consume large amounts of electricity and produce substantial heat, making cooling a major operational cost.

The country’s cold climate can help reduce cooling requirements, while its energy system includes nuclear power, wind and hydropower. The combination of relatively stable electricity supplies and favourable conditions for cooling has encouraged a growing number of data centre projects across Finland.

Google has maintained a presence in the country since 2009, when it acquired a former paper mill in the coastal city of Hamina and converted the site into a data centre. The company has expanded the facility over the years.

The latest investment comes as Finland faces weak economic growth and record unemployment. For Orpo’s government, attracting major technology investments has become an important economic priority.

With the country’s data economy offering prospects for investment, employment and research, Google’s announcement is expected to strengthen Finland’s position as a major European hub for digital infrastructure and artificial intelligence.

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ECB Expected to Raise Rates as Energy-Driven Inflation Complicates Decision

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The European Central Bank is widely expected to raise interest rates on Thursday, with financial markets placing the probability of a quarter-point increase close to 100%. The move would lift the ECB’s deposit rate from 2.25% to 2.5%.

The decision comes as eurozone inflation has climbed sharply, although much of the increase has been driven by energy costs rather than broad price pressures. This has created a difficult policy choice for the central bank as underlying inflation continues to ease.

The ECB raised rates on June 11 for the first time in three years, increasing the deposit rate from 2% to 2.25% following an energy shock linked to the Iran war. Policymakers then kept rates unchanged in July, while ECB President Christine Lagarde signalled that September could bring another increase.

August inflation figures strengthened expectations for action. Eurozone inflation reached 3.3%, up from 2.9% in July and its highest level since September 2023. Energy inflation surged to 14.3%, compared with 10.3% the previous month.

However, measures that exclude volatile components showed a different picture.

Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, fell to 2.4% from 2.5%. Services inflation also declined, dropping to 3% from 3.3%. The figures suggest that higher energy prices have not yet generated widespread increases in other prices.

This distinction is important for the ECB because policymakers closely watch so-called second-round effects, in which an initial energy shock spreads through wages, services and other parts of the economy.

ECB economists said in a research paper published Tuesday that adverse energy supply factors linked to geopolitical tensions accounted for about 90% of the increase in energy inflation between January and May.

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The current situation differs from the 2021-22 inflation surge, when both supply disruptions and strong demand contributed to rapidly rising prices.

Inflation has also varied considerably across major eurozone economies. August inflation reached 4.5% in Spain, compared with 2.9% in Germany and 2.7% in France, despite the countries facing the same broad energy shock.

Economic growth adds another complication. The eurozone economy has performed better than expected, supported partly by fiscal measures and changes in international trade conditions. ING analysts described the expected ECB move as an insurance increase that would keep the deposit rate within the range considered broadly neutral.

The global policy environment is also shifting. The US Federal Reserve is due to meet on September 15 and 16, while the Bank of Japan will meet on September 17 and 18. The Bank of England is expected to keep its rate at 3.75% on September 17.

A US rate increase could strengthen the dollar against the euro, potentially making European exports more competitive but increasing the cost of dollar-priced energy imports.

The ECB therefore faces a difficult balance: raising borrowing costs to contain inflation that is largely being driven by energy, while avoiding unnecessary pressure on an economy that may still require support.

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China Export Growth Accelerates to 25% in August on Strong Tech Demand

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China’s exports surged 25% in August from a year earlier, supported by strong overseas demand for automobiles, semiconductors and other high-tech products, according to the country’s customs agency.

The latest figures showed exports accelerating from the 23.9% annual increase recorded in July. Imports also grew strongly, rising 28.2% in August compared with a year earlier, up from 27.5% growth in July.

The stronger import figures reduced the gap between export and import growth but still left China with a trade surplus of $119.1 billion in August. That was an increase from the $112.5 billion surplus recorded in July.

The figures were released ahead of an expected meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month. Beijing has not yet confirmed the exact date of Xi’s visit, but trade is expected to be among the main issues discussed by the two leaders.

China’s strong export performance has been supported by growing shipments of electric vehicles, industrial machinery and advanced technology products.

“China is very competitive in its tech goods exports,” said Chi Lo, senior market strategist for Asia Pacific at BNP Paribas Asset Management.

He said China had moved higher up the value chain in recent years and had become an important supplier of artificial intelligence infrastructure and industrial automation equipment.

Chinese exporters have also benefited from stronger trade with markets outside the United States. Rising shipments to Southeast Asia, Latin America and Africa have helped offset some of the pressure created by higher US tariffs.

The strength of China’s trade surplus has raised concerns in both the US and Europe. China’s annual trade surplus reached a record $1.2 trillion last year, prompting calls for greater access to the Chinese market and more balanced trade.

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Lo said the strategic tensions between Beijing and Washington were likely to continue, particularly over sensitive goods. The US has restricted China’s access to some advanced technology, while Beijing has tightened controls on exports of certain rare-earth materials.

China and the European Union are also preparing for ministerial-level trade discussions later this year. The EU is seeking to reduce its trade deficit with China, which has reached roughly €1 billion a day.

European authorities have already introduced measures to protect domestic industries, including new restrictions affecting Chinese steel and tax treatment for small e-commerce parcels.

Despite the strong export figures, China’s domestic economy remains under pressure. Consumer spending and investment have been sluggish following years of weakness in the property sector.

Beijing announced on Sunday that it would inject around $54 billion into state banks and insurers as part of efforts to support economic growth.

The combination of strong overseas demand and weaker domestic activity is likely to keep China’s trade performance at the centre of economic and diplomatic discussions in the months ahead.

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