A section of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is expected to collide with the Moon on Aug. 5 in an unplanned impact that has drawn the attention of astronomers and space agencies. While scientists are closely tracking the event, they say the chances of seeing the collision from Earth remain slim.

The rocket stage dates back to a Falcon 9 mission launched in January 2025, when SpaceX sent two lunar landers toward the Moon. Since completing its task, the upper stage has remained in space, following a trajectory that researchers now believe will end with an impact on the Moon’s surface.

US astronomer Bill Gray, creator of the Project Pluto Guide astronomy software, first calculated the potential collision in September last year. His software, widely used by amateur and professional astronomers to track objects in space, predicts the rocket stage will strike the Moon on Aug. 5, 2026. Earlier estimates had suggested a possible impact in March before updated calculations refined the expected date.

NASA has also been monitoring the object. The agency recently discussed the expected collision during a panel organized by its Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute. Lunar observer Brian Day said the Moon is constantly changing as natural impacts regularly alter its surface, making such events an important subject for scientific observation.

According to Space.com, the Falcon 9 upper stage weighs about four tonnes and is traveling at more than two kilometers per second. If it reaches the Moon as predicted, it is expected to create a fresh crater and send a cloud of dust into space.

Scientists are uncertain whether the impact will be visible from Earth. Current projections suggest the rocket stage may strike near the edge of the Moon’s visible surface. If the resulting dust plume catches sunlight at the right angle, telescopes on Earth could potentially detect it.

NASA officials, however, believe that outcome is unlikely. William Cooke, a manager at the US space agency, said it would be “very, very hard to see, if not impossible,” according to the German news agency dpa.

Researchers stress that the event poses no danger to Earth or to future lunar missions. Still, it has renewed attention on the growing amount of space debris left behind after missions.

A similar impact was recorded in 2022, when NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter photographed a newly formed crater believed to have been caused by discarded rocket hardware. At the time, scientists suggested an old Chinese rocket stage was responsible, although China denied the claim.

Unlike deliberate crashes used in scientific experiments, the expected Aug. 5 impact was not planned. SpaceX has not publicly commented on the predicted collision.

Belarus has shifted the focus of irregular migration towards Latvia’s border, prompting Riga to seek additional support from neighbouring countries as the Baltic state prepares for parliamentary elections in October.

Lithuania is also considering temporary border controls to deal with a sharp increase in migrants travelling onward from Latvia after entering the European Union, adding to concerns about pressure on the bloc’s eastern frontier.

Latvian authorities say the latest increase is part of a wider campaign by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s government to use migration as a political tool against the EU. Latvia, Lithuania and Poland have faced irregular crossings from Belarus for several years, but officials now say the pressure has moved increasingly towards Latvia.

The scale of the change was highlighted by border figures. Latvia, which shares a 173-kilometre frontier with Belarus, recorded 111 attempted illegal crossings in one day last week. Lithuania, whose border with Belarus stretches 679 kilometres, recorded two attempts on the same day, while Poland reported no attempted crossings the previous day.

“Today Latvia’s border has become the main target,” Latvian Interior Minister Janis Dombrava said.

Latvian officials argue that Russia’s war against Ukraine and Belarus’ support for Moscow have increased security risks across the region. They say Minsk has facilitated migration towards EU borders to put pressure on neighbouring governments and stretch their security resources.

The latest situation has led Latvia to seek assistance from its Baltic neighbours. Lithuania has sent nine border guards and two service dogs to support patrols along the Latvian-Belarusian border. Estonia previously deployed two teams of 12 border guards to Latvia.

Officials from the three countries say cooperation is necessary because the Latvian-Belarusian frontier is also an external border of both the EU and NATO.

At the same time, Lithuania is dealing with a growing number of migrants entering the country from Latvia. Lithuanian border authorities say secondary migration has increased more than fourfold compared with the first half of last year.

The increase has prompted discussion about temporary checks on Lithuania’s border with Latvia. Interior Minister Martynas Katelynas has not ruled out the measure if other steps fail to control the flow.

For now, however, Latvia says the priority is strengthening the EU’s external border rather than restricting movement between the Baltic states. Riga and Vilnius have agreed to deepen cooperation between their law enforcement agencies and increase the exchange of border personnel.

Officials in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia accuse Belarus of organising migration flows to create political pressure. They say migrants are often brought to Belarus legally before being transported towards EU borders, with some allegedly receiving assistance from Belarusian security forces.

Lithuanian officials said the nationalities of migrants have changed over time, with people arriving from countries including Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Iran and Somalia.

Baltic authorities insist the latest migration pressure is part of a state-backed operation aimed at undermining border security and creating instability across the region.

The European Commission has proposed expanding the European Union’s carbon market to cover more international flights arriving in Europe, bringing thousands of routes under emissions trading from 2029 as part of a wider overhaul of the bloc’s Emissions Trading System (ETS).

Under the proposal announced on Friday, flights arriving in Europe from destinations within 5,000 kilometres would be required to pay for their carbon dioxide emissions. Routes such as Frankfurt to Dubai and Frankfurt to Istanbul would fall under the scheme, while longer journeys including Frankfurt to Tokyo would remain outside its scope. Flights arriving from the United States and China would also be exempt.

The proposal keeps existing exemptions for domestic flights serving the EU’s outermost regions, including connections between mainland Spain and the Canary Islands, until the end of 2035.

European officials said the changes are intended to create fairer competition for EU airlines, arguing that some non-EU carriers, particularly those operating through Gulf hubs, currently benefit from an uneven regulatory environment.

Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said aviation remains the only major sector where emissions continue to increase. He added that extending the ETS would help address competitive concerns while supporting the EU’s climate objectives. Hoekstra also confirmed that private jets departing from and arriving in Europe would be covered under the revised rules.

The Commission is legally required to assess whether international aviation should face broader carbon pricing beyond flights operating within the European Economic Area. The current ETS has covered intra-European flights since 2012, while most international aviation emissions are managed through the International Civil Aviation Organization’s Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA).

EU officials said that if international efforts fail to deliver sufficient emissions reductions by 2032, Brussels may be required to propose extending the ETS to all departing international flights from Europe, although they acknowledged such a move would be politically challenging.

The revised package also proposes significant changes for industrial companies receiving free carbon allowances. Under the plan, firms would receive 80% of their free allocations after publishing board-approved decarbonisation investment plans, while the remaining 20% would only be released after those investments and emissions reductions have been completed.

Commission officials said the approach is designed to encourage investment in cleaner technologies while maintaining Europe’s industrial competitiveness. They also want at least half of national ETS revenues to be reinvested in sectors covered by the carbon market, including aviation, maritime transport and energy-intensive industries.

The proposal has drawn mixed reactions. German lawmaker Peter Liese called for additional free allowances tied to investments within Europe to protect jobs during the transition. Meanwhile, environmental group Transport & Environment warned against weakening the ETS, arguing that the carbon market has already helped cut emissions substantially since 2005 and remains essential for financing future clean technologies.

The proposal will now move to the European Parliament and EU member states, with negotiations expected to begin after the summer break.