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Majority of Europeans Support Increased Defence Spending, but Doubt Autonomy from U.S., Survey Finds
A majority of Europeans support boosting national defence budgets, but remain sceptical about achieving independence from the United States on security matters within the next five years, according to a new survey released ahead of a key NATO summit.
The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) surveyed more than 16,000 people across 12 European countries, finding broad support for increased defence spending amid escalating global tensions and concerns about waning U.S. commitment to European security.
Clear majorities in countries such as Poland, Denmark, the United Kingdom, Estonia, and Portugal backed raising defence budgets. In several others — including France, Germany, Spain, and Romania — pluralities also favoured increased military spending. Italy was the only country where a majority (57%) opposed such increases.
However, when it comes to reducing reliance on U.S. military support, Europeans are far more cautious. Only in Denmark and Portugal did a majority of respondents express confidence that the EU could achieve strategic autonomy before the end of the decade. Most respondents in Poland, Estonia, and Spain believed that such independence would be either “very difficult” or “practically impossible” to achieve. Italian and Hungarian respondents were particularly doubtful, with over half in each country expressing strong scepticism.
Despite uncertainty over European self-reliance, the survey revealed a strong consensus on continued support for Ukraine. Majorities or pluralities in 11 out of the 12 countries surveyed rejected the idea of withdrawing military support, lifting sanctions against Russia, or pressuring Ukraine to surrender occupied territory — even if the U.S. shifts its stance.
The results come at a politically sensitive moment, as NATO leaders prepare to meet in The Hague this week. A major point of discussion will be a proposal to increase the alliance’s defence spending target. While former U.S. President Donald Trump has pushed for a dramatic rise to 5% of GDP, NATO members are currently considering a more modest increase to 3.5%, with an additional 1.5% dedicated to defence-related infrastructure, cybersecurity, and broader security initiatives.
Not all NATO members are aligned. Spain, in particular, has expressed reservations, with Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez warning that a 5% spending target would be “unreasonable” and “counterproductive,” potentially diverting resources from broader EU defence integration efforts.
Meanwhile, the EU is advancing its own plans to strengthen defence capabilities. A new initiative aims to mobilise €800 billion in defence investments over four years, partly by easing fiscal rules for member states and offering low-interest loans through a scheme known as SAFE.
Defence and strategic autonomy are also expected to feature prominently at the upcoming EU leaders’ summit in Brussels on Thursday.
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EU Must End ‘Naivety’ on Trade and Confront China’s Industrial Strategy, Says French Minister
France’s Minister for Foreign Trade, Nicolas Forissier, has called on the European Union to abandon what he described as “naivety” in its approach to global trade, urging a tougher stance on countries accused of distorting markets through industrial policy and trade practices.
Speaking in an interview with Euronews’ 12 Minutes With programme, Forissier said Europe must respond more firmly to what he described as the weaponisation of trade dependencies, warning that China in particular could damage its own long-term interests by undermining European industry.
“The Chinese have to understand that they won’t win anything if they destroy the European industry and then the European market, which is an essential market for them,” he said. “We must no longer be naive.”
His comments come as the European Commission prepares to hold an “orientation debate” next week on how to respond to a surge of low-cost Chinese imports. The discussion is expected to shape possible new trade defence measures, with further talks likely when EU leaders meet in Brussels in mid-June.
Forissier said the shift in thinking was not limited to China alone but applied to any country using commercial leverage to gain strategic advantage. “It is not only China,” he said. “It is all the countries that weaponise trade.”
Among the proposals under consideration is a requirement for EU companies to diversify supply chains, sourcing components from at least three different suppliers in order to reduce dependency on any single foreign market. Asked whether he supported such a measure, Forissier replied: “Yes, we have to.”
Other options include targeted tariffs on sensitive industries such as chemicals, alongside stronger use of anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tools to counter imports priced below domestic market levels. These measures are designed to address concerns over overcapacity in China’s industrial sector and its impact on European manufacturers.
The debate is taking place against a backdrop of widening trade imbalances. EU goods imports from China exceeded exports by €359.3 billion in 2025, marking an increase of nearly 20% compared with the previous year.
China has already warned it could retaliate if the bloc imposes new restrictions, raising concerns about potential escalation in trade tensions between two of the world’s largest economies.
France has repeatedly pushed for a more assertive European trade policy, arguing that state subsidies, export controls on raw materials and industrial overproduction in major economies are distorting global markets.
Forissier stressed that Europe must maintain open dialogue with Beijing while defending its own industrial base. “We try to respect the Chinese,” he said. “The Chinese have to respect us, and this is the message European institutions have to send.”
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