Business
Eurozone Retail Trade Stagnates as Economic Challenges Persist
Retailers in the eurozone ended 2024 on a subdued note, with data signaling limited growth and a challenging outlook for 2025. According to Eurostat figures released Thursday, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade in the euro area rose by a mere 0.1% in November compared to October.
The modest uptick followed declines of 0.3% in October and a 0.5% gain in September, underscoring the sector’s struggles. Across the European Union, retail trade fared slightly better with a 0.2% increase in November, after a 0.1% dip in October and a 0.4% rise in September.
Despite these figures, retail sales remain well below their November 2021 peak and the pre-pandemic trend, said Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics. He characterized the post-pandemic recovery as “disappointing,” attributing sluggish growth to lingering effects of COVID-19 disruptions and the war in Ukraine.
The eurozone grappled with an inflationary peak in 2022, driven by supply chain disruptions and energy price shocks. Although inflation has eased and the European Central Bank (ECB) has embarked on a rate-cutting trajectory, tighter fiscal conditions continue to weigh on consumer spending.
Key Trends in November
November’s modest growth was supported by a 0.8% rise in automotive fuel trade and a 0.1% increase in food, drink, and tobacco sales. However, sales of non-food products (excluding fuel) declined by 0.6%, highlighting uneven performance across sectors.
Among member states, Cyprus recorded the strongest monthly retail trade growth at 2.3%, followed by Bulgaria (1.3%), and Denmark and Latvia (both 1.1%). Conversely, Belgium experienced the steepest decline at -2.4%, with Germany and Spain both reporting -0.6%, and Poland and Finland recording -0.2%. France saw a modest 0.3% rise.
Challenges and Outlook for 2025
Looking ahead, economists predict a modest recovery rather than a robust rebound in retail trade. Rising real incomes, moderate employment growth, and falling interest rates are expected to provide some support for consumption. However, the pace of real income growth is projected to slow in 2025, dampening prospects for a strong recovery.
“November’s weaker retail sales are more due to less willingness to spend than a lack of purchasing power,” said Peter Vanden Houte, chief economist at ING Belgium. He attributed the cautious consumer behavior to fears of higher unemployment and geopolitical uncertainties.
The outlook remains clouded by political challenges in France and Germany, as well as potential policy shifts under the new U.S. administration. Economists agree that meaningful acceleration in retail trade is unlikely before the second half of 2025, as restructuring and layoffs in European manufacturing continue to weigh on confidence.
For now, eurozone retailers face a slow path to recovery, with significant headwinds still in play.
Business
Global Markets Rise as US–Iran Talks Ease Sentiment, but Oil and Geopolitical Risks Persist
Global financial markets advanced on Friday as investors reacted cautiously to signs of progress in US–Iran negotiations, though ongoing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and elevated oil prices kept risk sentiment fragile.
European equities opened higher across the board. The DAX gained 0.64%, supported by a 3.61% rise in Deutsche Post AG shares. France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.65%, led by a 3.43% jump in STMicroelectronics. In London, the FTSE 100 rose 0.38%, with gains in financial stocks including 3i Group, while the Euro Stoxx 50 added 0.88%.
Currency markets were relatively steady, with the euro trading at $1.161 and the British pound at $1.342 in early European trading. Sentiment was also lifted by better-than-expected economic data from Germany, where first-quarter growth came in at 0.4% year on year and consumer confidence improved heading into June, offering cautious optimism for Europe’s largest economy.
Asian markets followed the upward trend. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 2.7% to 63,339 after data showed inflation easing to a four-year low of 1.4% in April. Taiwan’s Taiex rose 2.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s Shanghai Composite each gained 0.9%. South Korea, Australia, and India also posted modest increases, reflecting broad regional strength.
Wall Street had earlier closed slightly higher. The S&P 500 added 0.2%, the Dow Jones rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq edged up 0.1%. However, technology stocks showed mixed signals, with Nvidia falling 1.8% despite strong quarterly results, as investors weighed valuations against broader market uncertainty.
Oil markets remained the key source of volatility. Brent crude climbed 2.3% to $104.97 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate rose 1.8% to $98.10. Prices remain significantly above pre-conflict levels, driven by continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil flows pass.
Shipping through the strategic waterway remains constrained, with limited signs of recovery as diplomatic negotiations continue without resolution. Analysts say markets are highly sensitive to developments in talks between Washington and Tehran, with ING commodities strategists noting that optimism exists but uncertainty dominates trading conditions.
Geopolitical tensions also weighed on policy discussions in Washington, where a planned congressional vote on war powers legislation was postponed amid insufficient support.
In bond markets, US Treasury yields eased slightly to 4.57% after earlier spikes driven by inflation concerns linked to energy prices. The movement reflected ongoing caution among investors balancing growth expectations with persistent geopolitical risk.
Corporate earnings added a bright spot in Asia, where Lenovo Group surged more than 20% after reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly revenue of $21.6 billion, driven by robust performance in its PC and smart devices division.
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