With just over two months remaining before the US midterm elections, Democrats are facing a political challenge that extends beyond their efforts to oppose President Donald Trump. The party is divided over its policy direction, with progressives and moderates offering competing ideas about how Democrats can regain support.

The divide has become increasingly visible during this year’s primary elections. Progressive candidates have secured several notable victories, raising hopes among the party’s left wing. Moderates, however, are warning that candidates associated with the progressive movement could struggle in competitive districts and Republican-leaning states.

Both factions say the 2024 election defeat exposed weaknesses in the party, but they draw different lessons from it.

Progressives argue Democrats were too cautious and failed to offer voters a strong economic alternative. They want the party to focus on issues such as lower healthcare costs, higher wages, stronger unions and greater restrictions on corporate power.

Moderates say Democrats need to avoid positions that Republicans can portray as extreme. They believe candidates must appeal to independent and conservative-leaning voters, particularly in closely contested states.

Recent primary results have intensified the debate. In Florida, democratic socialist Angie Nixon defeated moderate Alex Vindman in the Democratic Senate primary. In Michigan, progressive Abdul El-Sayed defeated establishment-backed Haley Stevens, while in California, Aisha Wahab won a special congressional election after facing substantial spending from outside groups.

Progressives view the results as evidence that Democratic voters are becoming less interested in traditional party leadership.

However, winning a primary does not guarantee success in November. Florida presents a major test for Nixon because the state has shifted strongly toward Republicans in recent elections. Her nomination has already prompted debate among Democrats over whether the party should embrace the democratic socialist label.

At the same time, Democrats in Florida selected former Republican David Jolly as their candidate for governor, highlighting the ideological range within the party.

Polling suggests many voters support economic policies associated with progressives, including higher taxes on corporations and wealthy individuals, government-supported healthcare, paid family leave and a higher federal minimum wage. Yet support for these policies does not necessarily mean voters will choose candidates who identify as progressive.

Democratic voters can hold moderate political identities while supporting populist economic measures. Some cultural issues associated with the left have attracted less support among swing voters.

This creates an opportunity for Democrats to build an economic message centred on affordability and corporate power while avoiding divisive cultural battles.

Trump remains another major factor. Republicans are using progressive primary victories to argue that Democrats are moving toward socialism, while Democrats have an incentive to keep attention on Trump’s record and economic concerns.

The November results could shape the party’s direction well beyond the midterms. A strong Democratic performance could strengthen either moderates or progressives, depending on which candidates succeed.

The outcome may also influence the 2028 presidential race. For now, Democrats face a shared objective: defeating Republicans in November while managing a growing dispute over what the party should become.