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Oxford Economics Warns US-Iran Peace Deal Will Shape Global Economy in Second Half of Year

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The outlook for the global economy during the remainder of the year will depend largely on whether the fragile peace agreement between the United States and Iran survives, according to a new analysis by Oxford Economics, which says the deal could determine the direction of inflation, energy prices and financial markets.

After a first half marked by conflict in the Middle East, volatile oil prices and rapid growth in artificial intelligence investments, the consultancy believes the next six months will be influenced by a series of interconnected risks, with the US-Iran truce standing at the center.

Chief Global Economist Ryan Sweet said the durability of the agreement would determine whether the global economy benefits from lower energy costs or faces another oil-price shock.

Oxford Economics forecasts global annualized economic growth of 3.1 percent during the second half of the year, compared with an estimated 1.6 percent in the first six months. The projection assumes oil prices remain relatively stable, supporting consumer spending and easing inflationary pressures. However, Sweet described the chances of the peace agreement holding as no better than “a coin flip.”

The report expects Brent crude to average in the low $70s per barrel if the agreement remains intact. A breakdown, however, could trigger higher inflation, tighter financial conditions and renewed pressure on global supply chains.

Those concerns intensified after fresh military exchanges on Wednesday. The United States launched strikes against Iran following allegations that Tehran had attacked three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded with strikes targeting Bahrain and Kuwait, raising fears that the ceasefire could unravel.

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Oil markets reacted quickly, with Brent crude climbing above $78 a barrel after rising more than six percent during trading.

Oxford Economics said any disruption would extend well beyond energy markets. Higher oil prices could increase production costs for technology companies, disrupt semiconductor supply chains across Asia, complicate central bank policy decisions and influence political developments, including upcoming elections in the United States and Israel.

The consultancy’s outlook differs from several other major forecasts. Morgan Stanley expects crude prices to approach $90 a barrel by year-end, while the World Bank projects Brent crude to average around $94 this year and anticipates global economic growth slowing to 2.5 percent in 2026.

Oxford Economics identified shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz as one of the clearest indicators of whether the peace agreement is holding. The report said a sustained recovery in vessel traffic by mid-July would strengthen confidence in the deal.

Beyond geopolitics, the report highlighted growing risks surrounding the artificial intelligence sector. The Bank for International Settlements recently warned that rapid expansion in AI investment has become increasingly dependent on private credit and complex financing arrangements outside the traditional banking system.

Oxford Economics also modeled a scenario in which US technology stocks fall by 25 percent over one year. According to Sweet, such a correction would bring US economic growth close to a standstill and reduce global growth by more than one percentage point.

Despite these risks, the consultancy said stronger AI-driven productivity and resilient economic activity in Europe could provide support if geopolitical tensions ease and energy markets stabilize during the second half of the year.

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TotalEnergies Expands European Renewable Portfolio with Shell Deal and KKR Partnership

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French energy company TotalEnergies has agreed to acquire Shell’s onshore renewable energy business in Europe, strengthening its position in the region’s fast-growing clean energy market while also announcing the partial sale of another renewable portfolio to US investment firm KKR.

The company said it had reached an agreement to purchase Shell’s European onshore renewable assets for an undisclosed amount. The acquisition includes about four gigawatts of electricity generation capacity, made up largely of solar and wind projects that are either operating or under construction in Italy and the Netherlands. The package also includes a pipeline of solar, wind and battery storage developments in Italy, Britain and Spain.

Although neither company disclosed the purchase price, a source familiar with the transaction told AFP the deal is valued at several hundred million euros.

The acquisition is expected to expand TotalEnergies’ renewable energy footprint across Europe as governments continue investing in cleaner energy sources and utilities increase their focus on reducing carbon emissions.

At the same time, TotalEnergies announced a separate transaction involving part of its existing renewable portfolio. The company will sell a 50 percent stake in a collection of wind and solar assets located in Germany, Spain, France and Poland to US investment firm KKR.

The agreement values that portfolio at approximately €1.8 billion ($2.1 billion). The assets included in the sale represent around 1.2 gigawatts of electricity production capacity.

Stephane Michel, President for Gas, Renewables and Power at TotalEnergies, said the two transactions support the company’s long-term strategy by balancing investment with capital management.

“These two transactions enable us to optimise our capital allocation in renewables while continuing to deploy our Integrated Power strategy,” Michel said in a statement.

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The latest deals reflect a broader trend among major energy companies as they reshape their portfolios to meet growing demand for renewable electricity while maintaining financial flexibility.

Following the acquisition of Shell’s renewable operations, TotalEnergies said it will have close to 10 gigawatts of renewable electricity production either already operating or under construction across Europe. The company also reported having an additional 27 gigawatts of renewable projects currently under development.

The expansion comes as Europe continues to accelerate investment in renewable energy infrastructure to strengthen energy security and meet climate targets. Solar, wind and battery storage projects have become central to the region’s transition away from fossil fuels, attracting increased interest from both energy companies and institutional investors.

With the Shell acquisition and the KKR partnership, TotalEnergies is positioning itself to expand its renewable generation capacity while sharing investment costs on selected assets, allowing it to continue growing its clean energy business across key European markets.

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European Minimum Wage Rankings Shift When Purchasing Power Is Taken Into Account

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Minimum wage levels across Europe present a different picture when adjusted for purchasing power, with the latest figures showing that workers in several countries have seen their earnings lose value as inflation outpaced wage increases during the first half of 2026.

New data released by Eurostat for July 2026 show that only eight of 29 European countries raised their statutory minimum wages between January and July. During the same period, consumer inflation across the eurozone reached 3.2 per cent, reducing the real value of wages in many countries where minimum pay remained unchanged.

In nominal terms, Luxembourg continues to offer the highest gross monthly minimum wage in Europe at €2,771. It is followed by Ireland (€2,391), Germany (€2,343), the Netherlands (€2,338) and Belgium (€2,234). France ranks just below this group with a monthly minimum wage of €1,867.

At the opposite end of the scale, Bulgaria has the lowest statutory minimum wage among European Union member states at €620 per month. When EU candidate countries are included, Ukraine records the lowest monthly minimum wage at €169, followed by Moldova at €313.

More than half of the countries included in the data have minimum wages below €1,000 per month, although seven of those nations are EU candidates.

The rankings change noticeably after adjusting for purchasing power standards (PPS), which measure how much goods and services workers can actually afford in their home countries.

Germany moves to the top position with a minimum wage valued at 2,164 PPS, ahead of Luxembourg at 2,108 PPS, the Netherlands at 2,023 PPS, Belgium at 1,922 PPS and Ireland at 1,756 PPS.

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Within the European Union, Estonia records the lowest minimum wage in purchasing power terms at 935 PPS, narrowly below Latvia’s 938 PPS. Bulgaria and Turkey also remain below the 1,000 PPS mark.

Several countries improve significantly when living costs are considered. Romania records the largest rise, moving from 20th place in nominal rankings to 12th in purchasing power terms. North Macedonia climbs from 24th to 16th, while Serbia, Croatia and Bulgaria also move higher in the adjusted rankings.

By contrast, Estonia experiences the biggest decline, dropping from 16th place in nominal terms to 26th after purchasing power adjustments. Latvia, Czechia and Cyprus also fall several positions.

Only eight countries increased minimum wages during the first half of 2026. North Macedonia recorded the largest increase at 6.9 per cent, followed closely by Romania and Estonia, both at 6.8 per cent. Belgium raised minimum wages by 5.8 per cent, Greece by 4.5 per cent, Luxembourg by 2.5 per cent, France by 2.4 per cent and the Netherlands by 1.9 per cent.

Countries that did not adjust minimum wages faced greater pressure from inflation. Malta recorded inflation of 8.2 per cent during the period, followed by Cyprus at 5.4 per cent and the Netherlands at 4.7 per cent.

Turkey remains a notable case, with inflation reaching 17.8 per cent between December 2025 and June 2026. Because the country now updates its minimum wage only once each year, many low-income workers have experienced a sharp decline in purchasing power despite substantial increases introduced in recent years. Nearly 40 per cent of Turkish workers earn the minimum wage, one of the highest proportions in Europe.

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Five European Union countries — Italy, Denmark, Sweden, Austria and Finland — continue to operate without a statutory national minimum wage, relying instead on collective bargaining agreements to determine pay levels across different sectors.

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Greek Workers Spend Longest Time Earning the Cost of an Ice Cream Scoop, European Comparison Finds

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A comparison of ice cream prices across 10 European countries has found that workers in Greece need to spend the longest time earning enough to buy a single scoop, highlighting differences in purchasing power across the continent despite recent signs that ice cream inflation is easing.

The study, based on prices gathered by Euronews journalists and market surveys, showed that the cost of a scoop ranged from about €1.15 to €4.10, depending on the country. While the United Kingdom recorded the highest indicative price in the comparison, Türkiye had the lowest.

Prices varied widely depending on factors including location, shop type, portion size and flavour. Exchange rate movements also influenced comparisons where local currencies were converted into euros.

Tourist destinations often recorded significantly higher prices than ordinary neighbourhood shops. In Greece, where a scoop typically costs around €2.60, prices on popular holiday islands can reach between €4 and €6.

Türkiye also showed notable differences between everyday prices and those in tourist areas. While a scoop in Istanbul averaged around TL62.50, prices in major holiday resorts climbed to between TL100 and TL120, equivalent to roughly €1.85 to €2.20.

In the United Kingdom, researchers noted that direct comparisons were less straightforward because many consumers purchase soft-serve cones or packaged ice creams from mobile vendors rather than individual scoops from traditional parlours. A recent survey commissioned by Aldi found parents paid an average of £2.65, or approximately €3.10, for an ice cream bought from a van.

To assess affordability rather than price alone, researchers compared the cost of a scoop with average take-home earnings and working hours. Annual net income data for European Union countries came from Eurostat, while figures for the UK and Türkiye were drawn from the OECD. Working-hour data was used to estimate how many minutes an average worker would need to earn enough for one scoop.

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Germany recorded the shortest working time at approximately 7.4 minutes. Workers in the United Kingdom needed around 9.3 minutes, while Belgium followed at 11.4 minutes. Italy required an estimated 13.2 minutes and France 14.5 minutes.

Türkiye, Poland and Spain were grouped at around 15 minutes, while Portugal reached 16.6 minutes. Greece ranked last, with workers needing an estimated 20.9 minutes of net earnings to afford a scoop, almost three times longer than workers in Germany.

Industry representatives in Greece said ice cream prices have risen by around 20% since 2020, largely because of higher energy costs. They noted that production expenses have remained relatively stable during 2026 after significant increases last year. Premium ingredients such as pistachios continue to add to costs, while rents and shop locations also influence retail prices.

Recent Eurostat data suggests price pressures have eased across much of Europe. The harmonised price index for ice cream and related products fell by 0.4% across the European Union in the year to June 2026, with notable declines in Portugal, Sweden, Denmark, Luxembourg, Greece and Belgium. However, prices continued to rise in several countries, including Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Austria, showing that inflation trends remain uneven across the region.

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