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Kevin Warsh Begins Fed Tenure as Markets Watch for Clues on Future Rate Path

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The US Federal Reserve enters a new phase on Wednesday as Kevin Warsh presides over his first policy meeting as chair, marking a closely watched leadership transition in American monetary policy. While economists broadly expect interest rates to remain unchanged, investors are focused on signals that could define the central bank’s direction under new leadership.

The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to keep the benchmark interest rate within the 3.50% to 3.75% range, extending a steady policy stance for a fourth consecutive meeting. The last adjustment came in December 2025, when rates were reduced by 25 basis points.

Although no immediate policy shift is anticipated, attention is centred on the language of the Fed’s statement and Chair Warsh’s first press conference. Analysts say even subtle changes in wording could indicate whether policymakers are leaning toward holding rates higher for longer or considering future increases if inflation remains persistent.

Warsh assumes leadership during a more complex economic environment than when he was previously associated with calls for lower interest rates. At that time, he aligned with arguments suggesting artificial intelligence-driven productivity gains could help ease inflation pressures. However, economists now point to continued inflationary risks tied to investment cycles in technology sectors, which have contributed to demand pressures across the economy.

Inflation has risen since the outbreak of the Iran conflict in February, reaching 4.2%, its highest level in three years, largely driven by higher energy costs. Although a US-backed framework for a peace deal has been announced, uncertainty remains over its durability, and analysts warn that any relief in fuel prices could take months to filter through to broader inflation measures.

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The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge has remained above its 2% target for more than five years. At the same time, the labour market continues to show resilience, with 172,000 jobs added in May, marking the third consecutive month of solid employment growth. This stability has reduced pressure for further rate cuts that were previously projected earlier in the year.

Because interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, market attention has shifted to the Fed’s updated Summary of Economic Projections and the “dot plot”, which outlines policymakers’ expectations for future rate movements. Some economists, including those at Bank of America, anticipate that the projections may indicate no rate cuts through 2026, with a minority of officials even signalling potential rate increases.

Communication strategy is also expected to be a key focus under Warsh. He has previously argued that the Fed should reduce the frequency of public commentary to avoid constraining policy flexibility. One possible change could involve returning to fewer press conferences, a model last used under former Chair Ben Bernanke.

However, analysts caution that reduced communication could unsettle financial markets that have grown reliant on clear forward guidance from the central bank.

Adding to the complexity, former chair Jerome Powell remains on the Fed’s board as a governor and is expected to participate in Wednesday’s vote, maintaining influence over policy decisions during the transition period.

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OPEC+ Approves Modest August Oil Output Increase as Crude Prices Retreat

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Seven members of the OPEC+ alliance have agreed to increase their combined oil production by 188,000 barrels per day in August, adopting a cautious approach as global crude prices continue to fall back to levels seen before the conflict involving Iran disrupted energy markets.

The producers announced the decision on Sunday, saying the output adjustment reflects current market conditions while reaffirming their commitment to maintaining stability in global oil markets.

“The countries will continue to monitor and assess market conditions, and in their continuous efforts to support market stability, they reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach,” the group said in a statement.

The increase comes after oil prices retreated sharply following months of heightened volatility linked to the conflict in the Middle East. Brent crude, the international benchmark, was trading below $72 per barrel as markets opened on Sunday evening, returning to levels recorded before military action involving Iran earlier this year. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading at around $68 per barrel.

Oil prices had surged during the height of the conflict, with Brent approaching $120 per barrel amid concerns over disruptions to supplies from the Gulf region. Prices have eased in recent weeks as tensions cooled and shipping activity gradually resumed.

Market sentiment has improved after Iran agreed under an interim understanding to allow commercial vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, while the United States eased restrictions affecting Iranian ports. Even so, negotiations aimed at reaching a broader settlement remain ongoing, and authorities in Tehran have warned that vessels departing from approved routes could face military action.

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The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes, carrying roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies before the conflict. Although commercial traffic has resumed, shipping volumes have yet to return to normal levels.

During the conflict, many OPEC+ production increases existed largely on paper rather than in actual exports. Limited access through the Strait of Hormuz forced several Gulf producers to reduce physical shipments as storage facilities filled with unsold crude, leaving actual production below official quotas.

As maritime routes gradually reopen, stored oil is returning to international markets, adding to supply and contributing to downward pressure on prices beyond the announced production increase.

Despite improving conditions, analysts believe a full recovery in Gulf oil production will take time. S&P Global Energy has projected that output may not return completely to pre-conflict levels until at least the first quarter of 2027. Industry observers also expect the effects of the disruption on fuel prices and broader inflation to continue even after any permanent political settlement is reached.

The seven OPEC+ producers said they remain prepared to suspend or reverse future output increases if market conditions deteriorate. The alliance is scheduled to meet again on August 2 to review supply levels and assess developments in the global energy market before deciding on production plans for the following month.

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Uzbekistan Accelerates Energy Expansion With Renewables, Grid Upgrades and First Nuclear Plant

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Uzbekistan is embarking on a major expansion of its electricity sector, aiming to increase annual power generation from 82 billion kilowatt-hours to more than 120 billion kilowatt-hours over the next five years as the country responds to rising demand from industry, population growth and emerging digital industries.

The ambitious target highlights the government’s drive to strengthen energy security while gradually reducing dependence on fossil fuels. Officials see the power sector as a key area for investment, with renewable energy, electricity transmission and nuclear power expected to play central roles in the country’s long-term strategy.

Speaking at the Tashkent International Investment Forum, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev said renewable sources are expected to generate 54% of Uzbekistan’s electricity by 2030. He noted that the country has already attracted nearly $6 billion in foreign investment for green energy projects and plans to invest another $4 billion in modernising electricity transmission networks.

Mirziyoyev also encouraged investment in solar and wind farms, battery energy storage systems, upgraded power grids and green-powered data centres, linking energy development with Uzbekistan’s industrial and digital transformation goals.

International financial institutions are already backing several major projects. In 2025, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) invested nearly $2 billion across 120 projects in Central Asia and Mongolia, with more than $1 billion directed toward Uzbekistan. More than half of the bank’s regional investments were classified as green initiatives, while about one-third supported sustainable infrastructure.

Among its projects in Uzbekistan is a $142 million financing package for a combined one-gigawatt solar photovoltaic plant and a battery storage system with a capacity of 1,336 megawatt-hours, developed alongside ACWA Power. The EBRD has also arranged financing of up to $195.5 million for a 300-megawatt solar facility and a 75-megawatt-hour battery storage project being developed by Masdar in the Kashkadarya region.

See also  ECB Holds Interest Rates as Energy Prices Surge Amid Middle East Tensions

EBRD Managing Director for Central Asia and Mongolia Huseyin Ozhan said expanding energy capacity requires both financial investment and policy reforms. He said governments across the region have adopted long-term decarbonisation plans, with international institutions helping develop roadmaps to reduce reliance on fossil fuels.

Ozhan said renewable energy remains the primary pathway for lowering carbon emissions while meeting growing electricity demand. He added that modern energy systems require not only new power plants but also battery storage, stronger grid connections and supportive regulations to attract private investment.

Alongside renewable energy, Uzbekistan has begun developing its first nuclear power project. Construction started in June in the Jizzakh region, where the planned facility will feature two large reactors with capacities of about 1,000 megawatts each, along with two small modular reactors of around 55 megawatts.

World Nuclear Association Director General Sama Bilbao y León said the project reflects a broader trend among rapidly growing economies seeking dependable low-carbon electricity. She noted that about 75% of Uzbekistan’s electricity currently comes from natural gas and said nuclear power will help diversify the country’s energy mix while allowing greater use of natural gas in other sectors of the economy.

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Big Tech Giants Lose $2.3 Trillion in June as Investors Shift Beyond AI Leaders

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The world’s largest technology companies endured their weakest monthly performance in years during June, as investors pulled back from the artificial intelligence-driven rally that had dominated global markets and shifted their attention toward a broader range of companies.

The so-called “Magnificent Seven” — Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Tesla — collectively lost about $2.3 trillion in market value during the month, marking a sharp reversal after leading Wall Street’s gains for more than three years.

Microsoft recorded one of the steepest declines, falling about 17 percent, its worst monthly performance since December 2000. Amazon dropped roughly 12 percent, Meta lost around 11 percent, while Nvidia and Alphabet declined by more than 5 percent each.

Apple reached a record closing price of $315.20 early in June before retreating more than 10 percent from its peak by month-end. Tesla experienced a volatile month, falling more than 6 percent during the first week before recovering most of those losses to finish the month nearly unchanged.

The decline comes as investors question whether the enormous spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure will generate sufficient returns. Major technology firms have committed hundreds of billions of dollars to expanding AI data centres and purchasing advanced semiconductors, driving up costs across the industry.

The world’s largest technology companies remain the biggest buyers of high-performance memory chips used in AI systems, contributing to supply shortages and soaring prices. Memory chip manufacturer Micron Technology recently reported earnings per share of $24.67 for its latest quarter, compared with $1.68 a year earlier, reflecting strong demand across the sector.

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Industry data also showed prices for DRAM memory chips, widely used in computers, smartphones and AI servers, surged by as much as 98 percent during the first quarter, increasing operating costs for companies investing heavily in artificial intelligence.

While the largest technology stocks struggled, much of the broader market continued to perform strongly. According to market analysts, companies outside the Magnificent Seven posted earnings growth of 17.5 percent during the first quarter, supported in part by semiconductor manufacturers and other technology suppliers benefiting from AI demand.

Analysts expect earnings growth among the remaining S&P 500 companies to exceed 20 percent in the second quarter, while forecasts for the Magnificent Seven have moderated. By the end of June, the S&P 493 Index, which excludes the seven technology giants, had gained 13.7 percent for the year, compared with a 6.6 percent decline for the Magnificent Seven. The broader S&P 500 Index advanced 7.4 percent over the same period.

Market observers say investors are becoming more selective, shifting their focus from AI infrastructure providers to companies expected to benefit from the technology’s wider adoption.

Despite the recent sell-off, the Magnificent Seven continue to deliver strong financial results, with estimated first-quarter earnings growth of about 29 percent. Analysts believe the group will remain influential in the technology sector, although investors are increasingly demanding clearer evidence that massive AI investments will translate into sustained profits.

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