Business

Trump’s Tariff Plans Take Shape, Raising Questions About Economic Impact

Published

1 day ago

January 28, 2025

RTX

President Donald Trump has outlined a clearer vision for his long-discussed tariff strategy, signaling plans to impose taxes on key imports such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and steel. Speaking to House Republicans on Monday, Trump emphasized the importance of reshoring manufacturing to avoid tariffs, stating, “If you want to stop paying taxes or tariffs, build here in America.”

Trump’s tariff proposals, which have ranged from 10% to 60% on various imports, aim to target high-profile industries first and expand over time. Pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and steel are among the initial targets, reflecting the administration’s intent to apply pressure on foreign manufacturers and encourage domestic production.

The move is part of Trump’s broader effort to prioritize American industry, though the timing and specifics of the plan remain uncertain. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has reportedly proposed a more gradual approach, starting tariffs at 2.5% and increasing them incrementally. However, Trump rejected this suggestion, telling reporters aboard Air Force One that he prefers a “much, much bigger” starting point.

Economic Implications
Pharmaceuticals and medical supplies, among the largest U.S. import categories, are at the forefront of Trump’s plan. Federal trade data from the Commerce Department shows that the U.S. imported $229 billion worth of pharmaceuticals in 2022, with Ireland, China, and Mexico among the top exporters. Tariffs on these products could complicate Trump’s promise to lower prescription drug prices while potentially increasing costs for American consumers.

The U.S. also imported $126 billion worth of semiconductors and electronic components last year, with Taiwan accounting for over a quarter of the total. As semiconductors are essential for products like computers, smartphones, and vehicles, tariffs on these goods could raise prices across numerous consumer markets.

Steel, another target, has been a recurring focus of U.S. trade policy. Despite tariffs imposed during Trump’s first administration and continued under President Joe Biden, the domestic steel industry has struggled to regain its former prominence. In 2022, the U.S. imported $32 billion worth of iron, steel, and ferroalloys, with Canada, Brazil, and Mexico leading exports.

Mixed Signals and Uncertainty
While Trump has set February 1 as a potential date for implementing tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China, his past actions suggest uncertainty remains. Previous threats, such as a brief tariff spat with Colombia, highlight Trump’s use of tariffs as a negotiating tool rather than a guaranteed policy measure.

Critics argue that tariffs primarily affect American consumers, as importers often pass the costs on to customers. Trump’s rhetoric, however, frames tariffs as a patriotic measure to strengthen domestic industry and reduce reliance on foreign production.

As the February 1 deadline approaches, businesses and consumers alike are bracing for potential changes that could reshape global trade relationships and impact prices at home. Whether Trump’s bold plans will materialize or serve as leverage in negotiations remains to be seen.

Business

ASML Reports Strong Q4 Results Amid Semiconductor Market Turmoil

Published

14 hours ago

January 29, 2025

RTX

Dutch semiconductor giant ASML has reported robust fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings, highlighting strong demand in the artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductor industries despite rising competition from China’s DeepSeek.

Steady Revenue Growth Despite Market Challenges

ASML’s total net sales for 2024 reached €28.3 billion, marking an increase from €27.6 billion in 2023. The company attributed this growth to rapid advancements in AI, which have fueled higher semiconductor demand. However, net income declined slightly to €7.6 billion from €7.8 billion the previous year. Following the earnings report, ASML’s stock surged 10.45% on Wednesday morning.

Surge in Net Bookings

A key highlight of ASML’s performance was the surge in net bookings, which rose to €7.1 billion in Q4 2024, up from €2.6 billion in the previous quarter. This increase was primarily driven by strong demand from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). Bookings for extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) technology, which is essential for producing smaller and more powerful chips, accounted for €3 billion of the total. ASML remains the only company capable of producing EUV systems.

However, net bookings for the full year declined to €18.9 billion from €20 billion in 2023, reflecting uncertainties in the global semiconductor market.

Optimistic Outlook for 2025

Looking ahead, ASML forecasts first-quarter 2025 net sales between €7.5 billion and €8 billion, with a gross margin between 52% and 53%. For the full year, ASML expects total net sales to range between €30 billion and €35 billion, with gross margins between 51% and 53%.

CEO Christophe Fouquet emphasized AI’s role in driving the industry’s growth: “The growth in artificial intelligence is the key driver for our industry. It has created a shift in market dynamics, presenting both opportunities and risks.”

Analyst Reactions: Confidence in ASML’s Future

Analysts reacted positively to ASML’s results. Ben Barringer, technology analyst at Quilter Cheviot, described the earnings as “impressive,” noting that revenue exceeded forecasts by 2.5%, and profits surpassed expectations by 8%. ASML is forecasting 15% growth in 2025, which Barringer believes underscores confidence in semiconductor demand.

Despite concerns over China’s DeepSeek and declining sales in the Chinese market—which dropped from 47% to 27% quarter-over-quarter—ASML has offset losses with strong demand from South Korea and the US.

DeepSeek’s Disruptive Impact on the AI and Semiconductor Market

The rise of DeepSeek, a Chinese AI-powered chatbot, has intensified market concerns. Since its January 20 release, the app has become the most downloaded free app on the US Apple Store, surpassing OpenAI. DeepSeek claims its AI models match or outperform US rivals in tasks like coding and mathematics while being significantly cheaper and more efficient in semiconductor use.

This development has raised fears for industry leaders like Nvidia, which recently suffered the largest single-day loss in US stock market history, losing nearly $600 billion in market value. Additionally, DeepSeek’s emergence has reignited concerns over the US’s inability to curb China’s AI advancements.

Waiting to See the Long-Term Impact

While ASML’s Q4 results have helped alleviate concerns in the semiconductor market, uncertainty remains regarding how DeepSeek’s rise will shape future demand. Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, acknowledged ASML’s strong earnings performance but warned that AI innovation from China could disrupt industry demand by 2026.

“While ASML is positive about its 2025 outlook, it will take time to see if DeepSeek’s impact will alter demand for advanced chips. If AI development becomes cheaper and more efficient, it could pose challenges for ASML and other semiconductor firms.”

Despite these uncertainties, ASML’s solid order book and strategic positioning in advanced semiconductor manufacturing suggest resilience in a rapidly evolving industry. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether ASML can sustain its momentum amid shifting market dynamics.

Business

Mediobanca Rejects €7 Billion Takeover Bid from MPS, Citing Value Destruction

Published

1 day ago

January 28, 2025

RTX

Milan-based Mediobanca has turned down a €7 billion all-share takeover bid from Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS), calling the offer “destructive of value” and dismissing it as lacking industrial and financial rationale. The decision sets the stage for one of Italy’s most contentious banking disputes in recent years.

In a statement released Tuesday, Mediobanca’s Board of Directors warned that the proposed merger would erode shareholder value, alienate top-tier clients, and undermine its independent advisory model. “The Board finds that the Offer is devoid of industrial and financial rationale and is therefore destructive for Mediobanca,” the statement read.

Mediobanca has carved out a niche in Italy’s banking sector, focusing on high-margin businesses such as investment banking and wealth management, which generate steady revenues. The bank expressed concern that merging with MPS, which relies heavily on retail banking, would weaken its business model and strategic independence.

Diverging Strategies at Play
The clash between the two institutions highlights contrasting visions for the future. Mediobanca has pivoted away from traditional lending, emphasizing advisory services and wealth management. Its reputation as an independent financial advisor is a key asset, which it fears would be compromised by MPS’s retail-oriented approach.

MPS, the world’s oldest bank, sees the merger as a chance to create a more competitive banking group capable of achieving €700 million in annual cost synergies. However, Mediobanca dismissed these claims, arguing that the two banks’ differing distribution networks would limit cost-cutting opportunities.

MPS’s recent history of financial instability has also raised concerns. Following a €2.5 billion state bailout in 2017, the Siena-based bank remains focused on retail and SME banking, sectors Mediobanca views as less profitable and more vulnerable to economic fluctuations.

Market Reactions and Bid Details
Last Friday, MPS launched its surprise all-share offer, proposing 23 MPS shares for every 10 Mediobanca shares. The deal valued Mediobanca’s stock at €15.99 per share, representing a 5% premium to its closing price on January 23.

Despite the premium, Mediobanca pointed out that the bid implied a 3% discount to its pre-announcement stock price—a rare scenario in takeover offers, where bidders typically provide a significant premium to win shareholder approval.

Investor sentiment reflects skepticism about MPS’s ability to execute the deal. Since the bid was announced, MPS shares have dropped nearly 10%, while Mediobanca shares initially rose 8% before slipping 3.5% on Tuesday after the rejection was confirmed.

Looking Ahead
The failed bid underscores the strategic divide between the two banks and raises questions about the future direction of Italy’s banking sector. While MPS seeks growth through consolidation, Mediobanca remains focused on protecting its niche business model, prioritizing independence over scale.

Business

Novo Nordisk Reports Promising Trial Results for Next-Gen Obesity Drug, Shares Surge

Published

3 days ago

January 27, 2025

RTX

Novo Nordisk, Europe’s largest pharmaceutical company, announced encouraging trial results for its next-generation obesity drug, amycretin, propelling its shares to a 7.13% gain in Copenhagen on Friday.

Key Trial Findings

The trial revealed that patients on the highest dose of 20 milligrams of amycretin achieved an estimated weight loss of 22% over 36 weeks. This result closely rivals Eli Lilly’s obesity drug Zepbound, which achieved a 22.5% weight loss over 72 weeks, and Lilly’s next-generation treatment, retatrutide, which reported a 24.4% weight reduction over 48 weeks.

Novo Nordisk’s amycretin is seen as a major contender in the competitive weight-loss drug market, particularly as the patent for its blockbuster treatment Wegovy is set to expire in the early 2030s.

Advancements in Treatment

Amycretin represents a significant step forward in weight-loss therapies, combining the effects of two hormones, glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) and amylin. This dual action enhances satiety and regulates blood sugar levels, providing a more comprehensive approach compared to Wegovy, which focuses solely on GLP-1.

The trials tested once-weekly injections of amycretin in 125 participants, showing:

9.7% weight loss with a 1.25-milligram dose over 20 weeks.
16.2% weight loss with 5 milligrams over 28 weeks.
22.1% weight loss with 20 milligrams over 36 weeks.

Most side effects were gastrointestinal and mild to moderate in severity. Novo Nordisk plans to advance amycretin into further clinical trials for adults with obesity or overweight conditions.

Market Impact and Competition

Following the announcement, Novo Nordisk’s shares saw a significant surge, recovering from a 14% decline over the past year. Meanwhile, Eli Lilly, a key competitor, experienced a brief 1.2% dip in U.S. markets before closing 2.45% higher.

Eli Lilly is also making strides with its oral weight-loss pill, orforglipron, which demonstrated a 14.7% weight loss over 36 weeks in a mid-stage trial. Oral treatments are gaining traction due to their convenience and cost-effectiveness compared to injectable therapies.

Novo Nordisk is developing an oral version of amycretin, showing a 13.1% weight reduction in trials, although this formulation presented more side effects. Its oral semaglutide trials reported a 15% weight loss over 68 weeks.

Outlook

With amycretin’s promising results and Wegovy’s robust sales, which rose 79% year-on-year in Q3, Novo Nordisk is poised for growth in the weight-loss drug market. The company’s fourth-quarter and full-year earnings are set to be released on February 5, offering further insights into its performance amid intensifying competition.