Business
Trade Policy Uncertainty Threatens Global Growth, Oxford Economics Warns
Uncertainty surrounding global trade policies is expected to have a significant impact on business investment in major economies, with the EU and UK projected to see a 2% decline in investments this year, according to a report by Oxford Economics.
Investment Decline Amid Trade War Fears
The study warns that businesses are scaling back investment plans due to increasing trade tensions, particularly those influenced by the policies of former U.S. President Donald Trump. With global trade disputes escalating, investment across key economies such as the U.S., China, the Eurozone, and the UK is facing a notable decline.
Oxford Economics found that investment undershot by approximately 4% in the U.S. and China and around 2% in the Eurozone and UK. While this decline is not catastrophic, it poses a significant challenge to global economic stability. In 2023, business investment accounted for 22% of GDP in China, 15% in the U.S., 12% in the Eurozone, and 10% in the UK. The decline in investment could have a lasting effect on economic growth.
Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policies
Beyond the uncertainty itself, higher tariffs imposed as part of ongoing trade disputes are also negatively affecting economic growth while simultaneously driving inflation higher.
The report highlights growing trade tensions between the U.S. and the EU, particularly after Trump proposed a 200% tariff on EU alcohol imports in retaliation for the EU’s 50% duty on U.S.-made whiskey. In response, the European Commission is considering countermeasures on up to €26 billion worth of U.S. goods.
Additionally, the U.S. government is closely monitoring the EU’s digital competition regulations, which could result in substantial fines for major American tech companies such as Apple and Meta. Retaliatory measures from the U.S. remain a possibility.
Small Economies at Higher Risk
Oxford Economics’ research indicates that smaller, trade-dependent economies in the Eurozone—such as Luxembourg, Slovakia, and Bulgaria—are likely to be hit the hardest. GDP in these countries could shrink by up to 1% over the next two years due to reduced investment and trade activity.
Among larger EU economies, Belgium and Italy are expected to suffer the most. Exporters that rely on U.S. markets are particularly vulnerable, as firms hesitate to expand capacity or invest in production amid the uncertainty of shifting trade policies.
This uncertainty is also affecting the automotive industry, a key sector for EU exports. The unpredictability of U.S. tariff policies has led to hesitation in investment decisions related to hiring, research and development, and market expansion. Consumers, too, are delaying major purchases, further slowing economic activity.
Possible Outcomes for Global Trade
Oxford Economics outlines four possible scenarios for trade uncertainty and its impact on private investment and global growth.
- Rapid Decline in Uncertainty – If trade policy uncertainty dissipates by the end of the year, investment levels are expected to recover in 2026 and beyond.
- Prolonged Uncertainty Until 2028 – If uncertainty persists and is coupled with increased tariffs, global investment could suffer long-term harm, with declines of up to 10% in the U.S. and China, 6% in the Eurozone, and 4%-5% in the UK.
- Gradual Decline to a High-Level of Uncertainty – If uncertainty remains elevated for several years, it could lead to a sustained drag on global investment, reducing it by 10%-20% in major economies.
- Uncertainty Lasting Until 2029 – The worst-case scenario predicts a 20% drop in investment in China, 14% in the U.S., 10% in the Eurozone, and 7% in the UK by 2029.
The report suggests that, in such a scenario, governments would need to introduce major monetary and fiscal policy interventions to prevent prolonged global economic stagnation.
A Growing Concern for Global Markets
As trade tensions persist and global uncertainty mounts, businesses are bracing for a challenging investment climate. Without a resolution to trade disputes, economic growth could face prolonged difficulties, reinforcing a cycle of low confidence and declining investments.
The coming months will be critical in determining whether global policymakers can ease tensions and provide stability, or if prolonged uncertainty will further hinder economic recovery.
Business
Women Entrepreneurs in the UK Face Major Hurdles in Accessing Business Funding, Study Finds

A growing body of research continues to reveal the challenges women entrepreneurs in the UK face when accessing business funding, with a recent report highlighting a stark disparity between male- and female-led companies in terms of debt and investment.
The report, published by finance broker Swoop Funding, examined data from over 50,000 UK businesses and found that male-led companies collectively hold £9.5 billion in business debt, compared to just £769 million for female-led ventures. On average, businesses run by men carry £315,000 in debt, while women-run companies average just £91,000.
While debt is not inherently negative—often used to support expansion or manage operational costs—the figures point to a broader issue of inequality in financial access and confidence in seeking funding.
Andrea Reynolds, CEO of Swoop Funding, said the discrepancy stems partly from differences in approach. “The simple answer is that men ask for funding earlier in the process than women do,” she explained. “Many women bootstrap their businesses from the kitchen table and hesitate to seek loans.”
The gender investment gap extends beyond traditional loans. According to the British Business Bank, for every £1 of venture capital invested in the UK, all-female founder teams receive less than 1p. All-male teams take 89p, while mixed-gender groups receive the remaining 10p. At this rate, experts say it could take more than 25 years for all-female teams to secure even 10% of all VC deals in the UK.
A lack of awareness around available funding, limited networks, and persistent cultural biases around borrowing have also contributed to the gap. Reynolds noted that lenders could do more to market start-up loans specifically to women and to dispel misconceptions about responsible business debt.
Entrepreneurs like Stacey-Rebekka Karlsson, founder of Goho Agency, offer real-life examples of how access to credit can drive success. Karlsson used a £25,000 government Bounce Back loan during the COVID-19 pandemic, which she said helped her business expand and deliver comprehensive services to clients. “We’ve managed to grow the business every single year since,” she noted.
Experts suggest a multi-pronged approach to closing the gap, including seeking out female-focused investment groups, networking platforms like Female Founders Rise, and government support schemes such as the Women in Innovation Awards and the Prince’s Trust Women Entrepreneurs Programme.
Building financial literacy, tracking credit scores, and planning strategically how to use funding are also key to long-term success. By addressing these structural barriers and offering targeted support, advocates say the UK can help unlock the full potential of its female entrepreneurial talent.
Business
Trump Secures $200 Billion in UAE Deals, Anchored by World’s Largest AI Campus Outside U.S.

U.S. President Donald Trump has concluded his tour of the Persian Gulf with a major economic victory, announcing $200 billion (€179 billion) in agreements with the United Arab Emirates. The deals span artificial intelligence, aviation, energy, and industrial development, highlighting deepening economic ties between Washington and Abu Dhabi.
The centrepiece of the announcement is the creation of what is set to become the world’s largest AI campus outside the United States. The 10-square-mile facility will be built in Abu Dhabi by G42, a leading UAE artificial intelligence firm, in partnership with several American technology companies. With a planned capacity of 5 gigawatts, the campus will support advanced AI computing needs across the region and for developing nations in the Global South.
“The new AI campus will host American hyperscalers and large enterprises, enabling regional compute capabilities while serving the Global South,” the U.S. Department of Commerce said in a statement.
The White House confirmed the UAE may be permitted to import up to 500,000 of Nvidia’s H100 GPUs annually through 2027, with around 20% allocated to G42. While some U.S. officials have expressed concern about potential technology leaks to China, the agreements include safeguards to ensure secure access and restricted technology sharing.
“The UAE is committed to safeguarding advanced AI technologies by implementing stringent measures to prevent diversion and ensure controlled access,” the Commerce Department added.
UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan praised the agreement as “a testament to the ongoing collaboration between our countries in artificial intelligence.”
Commerce Secretary Howard W. Lutnick hailed the deals as a “major milestone in achieving President Trump’s vision for U.S. AI dominance.”
In addition to AI, the UAE committed to significant aviation and energy investments. Etihad Airways, the country’s national carrier, confirmed a $14.5 billion order for 28 widebody Boeing aircraft, including 787 and 777X models powered by GE Aerospace engines. The announcement comes just a day after Boeing signed a $96 billion agreement with Qatar Airways, driving its stock to a 52-week high.
In the energy sector, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) signed a $60 billion agreement with U.S. giants ExxonMobil, Occidental Petroleum, and EOG Resources to expand upstream oil and gas projects.
Other industrial deals include partnerships with Emirates Global Aluminum to advance aluminium smelting and gallium production.
The UAE agreements bring Trump’s total haul from the Gulf tour to $1.4 trillion, following earlier deals worth $600 billion with Saudi Arabia and $243 billion with Qatar. The trip underscored the Gulf region’s growing role in global tech and industrial investment, and the Biden administration’s strategic pivot toward economic cooperation in the Middle East.
Business
Boeing Lands Record $96 Billion Deal with Qatar Airways During Trump’s Middle East Trade Tour

Boeing shares soared to their highest level in over a year after the U.S. aerospace giant secured a landmark $96 billion agreement with Qatar Airways, marking the largest widebody aircraft order in the company’s history. The deal was unveiled during former President Donald Trump’s ongoing trade mission across the Gulf region.
The agreement was part of a broader $243.5 billion package of U.S.-Qatar deals announced by the White House during Trump’s visit to Doha. It includes the sale of 130 Boeing 787 Dreamliners and 30 777X aircraft, reinforcing Washington’s deepening commercial ties with Gulf states.
“This order represents a record for Boeing and a pivotal moment for American manufacturing,” the White House said in a statement. “These historic deals will fuel economic growth, support nearly 400,000 American jobs, and reaffirm our leadership in aerospace technology.”
Boeing’s stock rose 2% on Wednesday, hitting a 52-week high in response to the announcement. The company described the order as its largest-ever for widebody jets and the biggest single purchase by Qatar Airways to date.
Qatar Airways CEO Engr. Badr Mohammed Al-Meer called the agreement a strategic move beyond mere fleet expansion. “We are building strength to deliver unmatched customer experiences,” he said, adding that the new aircraft will help the airline enhance global connectivity with improved efficiency and comfort.
Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg, who joined Trump on the Middle East tour, hailed the deal as a major milestone for the company, which has struggled in recent years due to safety and production setbacks, particularly with its 737 MAX line. The company had also faced headwinds from U.S.-China trade tensions, which saw Beijing halt orders for Boeing jets in April.
In a related development, Boeing also secured a $4.8 billion order for 737-8 MAX aircraft from Saudi leasing firm AviLease earlier this week, further boosting its commercial prospects in the region.
Trump’s visit to Qatar follows a $600 billion investment plan signed with Saudi Arabia earlier in the week and precedes a scheduled stop in the United Arab Emirates, where additional aviation deals are anticipated.
The Boeing-Qatar agreement is one of several high-profile announcements during the former president’s tour, which also saw the finalization of an $80 billion artificial intelligence investment partnership with Saudi Arabia. These deals have not only strengthened U.S. business interests in the region but also driven gains across tech and aerospace stocks.
As geopolitical and trade dynamics continue to shift, Boeing’s historic order underscores the Gulf’s growing importance in the global aviation and technology supply chains.
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