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Israel-Iran Tensions Flare as Israel Launches Targeted Airstrikes, Iran Downplays Impact
In the wake of Israel’s recent airstrikes against multiple Iranian military sites early Saturday, sources within Iran are dismissing the operation as ineffective. According to Israeli officials, the strikes successfully targeted around 20 Iranian military locations as part of a three-phase operation. Israeli sources indicate that the strikes came in response to recent attacks allegedly backed by Tehran, yet Iranian media and officials connected with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have portrayed Israel’s retaliation as exaggerated.
Iranian government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani provided limited details on the strikes, downplaying their effect as “limited” and assuring citizens that “the situation is normal.” Iran’s IRGC has further sought to control the narrative by issuing a public notice warning citizens against sharing images or information with foreign media under threat of severe punishment.
Despite these warnings, images and videos of the attacks circulated widely on social media, hinting at potential breaches in Iran’s information restrictions. The IRGC’s Organised Crime Investigation Centre reinforced these restrictions with a statement on Saturday warning of a 10-year prison sentence for individuals who provide visuals or information to foreign or opposition-affiliated media sources.
The attacks also follow diplomatic intervention by the United States, urging Israel to limit its response to conventional military targets. While Israel was reportedly considering more extensive attacks on critical infrastructure, including nuclear facilities and oil refineries, the U.S. discouraged actions that could lead to severe escalation. Israeli leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have been under pressure from Washington to avoid a wider confrontation. The Biden administration has stated that it expects the airstrikes to conclude the recent exchange of hostilities.
For Israel, the strikes were a direct response to Tehran’s activities, while Iranian state media has painted them as merely a propaganda move by Israeli leaders, who, according to Tehran, are operating from secure bunkers out of concern for possible retaliatory strikes. Observers note that Israel’s strikes were restrained, focusing on missile storage and drone facilities, rather than on economic or nuclear sites, potentially to avoid provoking a more aggressive Iranian response. The New York Times reported that Iranian officials previously stated they would retaliate only if Israeli strikes inflicted severe damage.
The regional situation remains tense, with hardline factions within Iran pushing for a stronger response, even as the government signals restraint. With just days remaining before the U.S. presidential election, some analysts speculate that Iran may choose to avoid further escalation, aiming instead to project stability in sensitive areas like Lebanon and Gaza.
Both nations have complex domestic pressures, with factions within Iran’s leadership seeking confrontation, while other officials work to maintain stability amid mounting international scrutiny. Whether tensions will continue to simmer or ease following the recent strikes remains to be seen, as both Iran and Israel navigate their respective internal and international challenges.
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Russia Demands SWIFT Reconnection as Condition to Revive Black Sea Initiative
Russia has set forth a key demand for the restoration of the Black Sea Initiative—reconnecting its Agricultural Bank, Rosselkhozbank, to the SWIFT financial system. This request, which falls under the jurisdiction of the European Union (EU), comes amid ongoing negotiations between global powers on the war in Ukraine.
Partial Ceasefire and Black Sea Security Agreement
Following recent talks in Saudi Arabia, the United States announced that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to a partial ceasefire specifically covering energy facilities. While this fell short of the broader ceasefire pushed by former President Donald Trump, the parties also agreed on measures to ensure the safe navigation of commercial vessels in the Black Sea and to prevent their use for military purposes.
However, the Kremlin quickly detailed additional conditions, demanding the lifting of sanctions on food exports, fertilizers, agricultural machinery, and cargo insurance. Most notably, Russia is insisting that Rosselkhozbank and other financial institutions involved in agricultural trade be reinstated on SWIFT, a global messaging system that facilitates secure financial transactions.
EU’s Role and Sanctions History
SWIFT, headquartered in Belgium, falls under EU regulations. In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU removed several Russian banks from SWIFT in 2022, including Sberbank, Credit Bank of Moscow, and Rosselkhozbank. The exclusion was a significant blow to Russia’s financial system, as it restricted the country’s ability to conduct international transactions.
Rosselkhozbank, a state-owned institution, plays a critical role in facilitating payments for Russia’s agricultural exports, a major revenue source through the global sale of wheat, barley, and corn. While the EU has not directly sanctioned Russian agricultural exports, the banking restrictions have complicated payments for these transactions, leading to the collapse of the initial Black Sea Initiative brokered by Turkey and the United Nations.
Diplomatic Tensions and Uncertain Outcomes
The demand to reinstate Rosselkhozbank puts the EU in a difficult position. Granting this request could signal a willingness to make concessions, potentially encouraging Russia to seek further sanctions relief. However, refusing it could provoke tensions with the Trump administration, which is eager to secure a ceasefire.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has consistently opposed easing sanctions, arguing that they must remain in place until Russia ends its military aggression. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen echoed this stance, stating that sanctions would only be lifted after Russia takes concrete steps toward peace.
As EU sanctions require unanimous renewal every six months, any member state could disrupt the process. Hungary, which has previously expressed opposition to sanctions, could leverage this situation to push for changes when restrictions are up for review on July 31.
Future of SWIFT and Global Financial Pressures
While the EU holds the power to reinstate Rosselkhozbank’s SWIFT access, the U.S. could signal leniency by ensuring that those engaging with the bank avoid legal repercussions. Analysts suggest that Russia’s demand may be a strategic move to test both Washington and Brussels, pressuring the EU to reconsider its stance on financial restrictions.
For now, the EU remains firm in its approach. France has indicated that sanctions should remain unless Russia agrees to a full ceasefire, reparations, and security guarantees for Ukraine. However, with negotiations ongoing and international pressure mounting, the debate over SWIFT and broader sanctions relief is unlikely to fade anytime soon.
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