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Global Myopia Rates in Children and Adolescents Expected to Surge to 740 Million by 2050, Study Finds
A new study has revealed that the number of children and adolescents affected by myopia, or short-sightedness, is set to surpass 740 million globally by 2050. The comprehensive analysis, published in the British Journal of Ophthalmology, highlights the rapid increase in the prevalence of the eye disorder, particularly among teenagers.
The research, conducted by scientists at Sun Yat-Sen University in Guangzhou, China, examined data from 311 studies across 50 countries, involving over 5.4 million participants. The findings showed that since 1990, myopia in children and adolescents has grown from affecting around a quarter of this population to one-third today. This increase makes the current global prevalence of myopia “substantial.”
Projections suggest a 9% rise in global myopia rates between 2023 and 2050, with adolescents aged 13 to 19 at higher risk than children aged 6 to 12. By mid-century, more than half of adolescents and over a quarter of children are expected to be myopic.
“This is a very worrying prediction, and it falls in line with previous data but gives us a more precise and up-to-date estimate,” said Imran Jawaid, a pediatric ophthalmologist at Moorfields Eye Hospital Dubai. He added that developing myopia at a younger age increases the risk of long-term complications, such as retinal detachments and myopic macular degeneration, which can lead to irreversible vision loss.
The study noted that while myopia has long been regarded as a vision disorder, it is now recognized as a significant eye disease with potential lifelong consequences. A report released by the U.S. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine recently called for myopia to be classified as a disease requiring medical diagnosis.
Regional Disparities and Risk Factors
The analysis also revealed stark regional differences in myopia prevalence. East Asia, particularly Japan, has the highest rates, while Paraguay had the lowest. The study found that people living in urban areas, especially in East Asia, and females were more likely to develop myopia. Factors like less time spent outdoors and more “near work” on screens or reading were also linked to the rise in short-sightedness.
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was another concern, with lockdowns potentially reducing outdoor activity, though evidence of this was limited. The study predicts that by 2050, the prevalence of myopia in Asia could reach 69%.
Experts recommend simple preventive measures such as encouraging children to spend at least one to two hours outdoors daily and limiting screen time. Authorities are also urged to reduce homework burdens to help ease the growing myopia crisis.
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