Connect with us

Business

Germany’s Economic Sentiment Hits 2-Year High as Eurozone Trade Surplus Shrinks

Published

on

Germany’s economic sentiment reached its highest level in two years, but the eurozone’s trade surplus saw a sharp decline, according to economic data released on Tuesday. While EU exports to the US surged ahead of potential tariffs from former US President Donald Trump, the trade deficit with China widened significantly.

The latest trade figures indicate that European and US businesses are accelerating shipments to mitigate the impact of possible tariff hikes, driving a sharp increase in transatlantic trade volumes.

German Economic Sentiment Soars

Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment index surged to 51.6 points in March 2025, up from 26 points in January, surpassing market expectations of 48.1. This marks the highest level of economic optimism since January 2023.

“Economic expectations are improving considerably again in March, with a strongly increasing ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment,” said ZEW President Achim Wambach. “The brighter mood is likely due to positive signals regarding future German fiscal policy, including the agreement on the multi-billion-euro financial package for the federal budget. In particular, prospects for metal and steel manufacturers, as well as the mechanical engineering sector, have improved. Last but not least, the European Central Bank’s sixth consecutive interest rate cut means favorable financing conditions for private households and companies.”

The broader eurozone ZEW economic sentiment index also rose, climbing 15.6 points to 39.8, reaching its highest level in eight months.

Germany’s Fiscal Expansion Plan

Earlier this month, Germany announced a major fiscal expansion to strengthen its defense capabilities and stimulate economic growth, marking a shift from its traditional fiscal conservatism. The initiative includes a €500 billion infrastructure fund over 12 years, with €100 billion allocated to climate and economic transformation projects. Additionally, Germany plans to ease its constitutionally mandated debt brake to allow increased borrowing, particularly for defense spending. These measures are expected to receive approval from the Bundestag this week.

Eurozone Trade Surplus Declines Sharply

The eurozone’s trade surplus in goods plummeted to just €1 billion in January 2025, a drastic decline from €10.6 billion in the same period last year, according to Eurostat data. The figure also marked a significant drop from December’s €15.4 billion surplus.

The downturn was driven by weaker performance in machinery, vehicles, and other manufactured goods. The surplus in machinery and vehicles fell from €16.5 billion in December to €7.4 billion in January, while other manufactured goods shifted from a €1.2 billion surplus to a €4.6 billion deficit. The European Union as a whole also saw its trade balance turn negative, moving from a €15.9 billion surplus in December 2024 to a €5.4 billion deficit in January 2025.

EU Trade with US Surges Ahead of Tariff Threats

A key highlight in the trade data was a sharp rise in European exports to the United States. EU exports to the US reached €46.7 billion in January, marking a 16% year-on-year increase, while imports from the US also grew by 7.5% to €30.5 billion. The surge suggests that businesses are frontloading shipments ahead of proposed US tariff hikes.

The Trump administration has announced plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on all major trading partners starting April 2, 2025. Additionally, Trump has specifically threatened to impose a 200% tariff on European wines and other alcoholic beverages unless the EU removes its existing 50% tariff on American whiskey.

EU’s Trade Deficit with China Widens

While trade with the US showed resilience, the EU’s trade relationship with China continued to deteriorate. Imports from China surged by 19.2% year-on-year to €44.8 billion, while exports to the country fell by 13.3% to €14 billion.

The growing trade imbalance with China raises concerns about the EU’s dependence on Chinese goods and the competitiveness of European exports in the region. As economic conditions fluctuate, policymakers will need to navigate these challenges while maintaining stability within the eurozone’s trade landscape.

Business

Novo Nordisk Shares Rise Despite 2025 Outlook Downgrade Amid Weight-Loss Drug Market Pressures

Published

on

Shares in Novo Nordisk surged on Wednesday after the Danish pharmaceutical giant posted stronger-than-expected first-quarter earnings, even as it lowered its growth outlook for 2025 due to mounting competition in the weight-loss drug market.

The company, best known for its diabetes and obesity treatments, reported a 20% year-on-year rise in net profit to 38.8 billion Danish kroner (€5.2 billion), with net sales up 18% to 78.1 billion kroner (€10.5 billion). Both figures exceeded analyst expectations, driven by robust demand for obesity and diabetes medications.

Despite the upbeat results, Novo Nordisk cut its full-year guidance. The firm now expects 2025 sales growth of 13–21%, down from its earlier projection, and operating profit growth between 16–24% at constant exchange rates—both lowered by several percentage points.

We have reduced our full-year outlook due to lower-than-planned branded GLP-1 penetration, which is impacted by the rapid expansion of compounding in the US,” CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen said in a statement. “We are actively focused on preventing unlawful and unsafe compounding and on efforts to expand patient access to our GLP-1 treatments.”

Still, shares rose 4.4% at the opening of European trading, though the stock remains down 26% since the start of the year. In contrast, main U.S. competitor Eli Lilly has seen a more stable stock performance in 2025.

A key pressure point for Novo Nordisk is the U.S. market, where demand for GLP-1-based weight-loss treatments like Wegovy has outpaced supply. Under FDA policy, compounding pharmacies were permitted to produce alternative versions of drugs in short supply, allowing smaller rivals to offer cheaper options. Although the FDA declared shortages over earlier this year, it granted a grace period until May 22 for compounded versions to remain in circulation.

In response, Novo Nordisk slashed Wegovy’s price by more than half on its online platform, NovoCare, mirroring similar price cuts by Eli Lilly.

In its outlook, Novo Nordisk highlighted the continued global rollout of Wegovy, noting there are an estimated one billion people living with obesity worldwide, yet only a fraction are receiving treatment. CFO Karsten Munk Knudsen said he expects Wegovy sales to pick up further in the third quarter.

Meanwhile, the company announced the completion of its REDEFINE 2 trial for its next-generation drug, CagriSema, which showed a 15.7% weight reduction. While the results fell short of the 25% reduction some had hoped for, Novo Nordisk aims to file for regulatory approval early next year.

The company also said it has filed for U.S. approval of a new oral formulation of semaglutide, which could become the first oral GLP-1 drug for obesity treatment.

Despite market headwinds, Novo Nordisk remains optimistic about future growth in a highly competitive but fast-expanding global obesity market.

Continue Reading

Business

European Countries Compete to Attract Wealthy Expats with Tax Perks Amid Budget Pressures

Published

on

As European governments face mounting budgetary pressures from slow economic growth, aging populations, and increased defense spending, many are turning to a new source of relief: wealthy foreigners. In a bid to boost investment and tax revenues, several countries are rolling out attractive fiscal incentives designed to lure high-net-worth individuals to their shores.

Italy: A Flat Tax for the Ultra-Wealthy

Italy remains a popular destination, not only for its rich culture and Mediterranean climate, but also for its lucrative flat tax regime. Under this program, foreign residents can opt to pay a flat annual tax of €200,000 on all income earned abroad, regardless of the amount. The incentive is available for up to 15 years and targets individuals who haven’t lived in Italy for at least nine of the last ten years.

This system eliminates the need for complex tax planning,” said tax advisor David Lesperance, noting that some wealthy individuals see the lump sum as equivalent to what they already spend annually on accounting fees.

Switzerland: Expense-Based Taxation

Switzerland offers a similar scheme, known as the forfait fiscal, which calculates tax based on an individual’s living expenses rather than income. Though only a small portion of taxpayers qualify, those eligible — typically wealthy foreigners with no Swiss business activities — can benefit from lower effective tax rates. Minimum thresholds apply, such as tax based on at least seven times annual rent or CHF 429,100 (€455,000), whichever is higher.

Portugal: A Revised Regime with Limits

Portugal’s tax benefits for expats have stirred domestic controversy, especially amid rising living costs. After criticism and international pressure, the country has revamped its Non-Habitual Residence program. The new version, NHR 2.0, grants a 20% income tax rate to highly qualified professionals for 10 years but excludes foreign pensions, which are now taxed at standard rates.

Shell Companies and Loopholes

The use of shell companies remains a common tactic for the wealthy to minimize taxes. By routing personal income through corporate entities, individuals can shelter wealth in jurisdictions with low corporate tax rates — such as Hungary (9%), Bulgaria (10%), and Ireland (12.5%). While more than 140 countries have agreed to a 15% global minimum tax on large corporations, its implementation is still ongoing.

Balancing Benefits and Backlash

Experts caution that tax planning is complex and must consider broader fiscal factors including inheritance, wealth, and capital gains taxes. While tax incentives can boost property markets and local spending, they also raise questions about fairness and long-term sustainability.

Countries wouldn’t offer these perks if they didn’t believe the benefits outweighed the costs,” said Jason Porter of Blevins Franks Financial Management. “But the political debate over these trade-offs is far from over.”

Continue Reading

Business

Ford Withdraws 2025 Outlook Amid Tariff Uncertainty, Braces for $1.5 Billion Hit

Published

on

Ford Motor Co. has pulled its full-year financial forecast and warned of a potential $1.5 billion (€1.39 billion) blow to its profits this year due to escalating trade tariffs and uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.

In its first-quarter earnings report released Monday, the automaker cited unpredictable market conditions stemming from the Trump administration’s evolving tariff regime as the key reason for suspending its guidance. While Ford is less exposed than some competitors thanks to its strong U.S. manufacturing base, the company acknowledged that the threat to supply chains remains significant.

Given the potential range of outcomes, updating full-year guidance is challenging right now,” the company said in a statement. Ford had previously projected earnings before interest and taxes between $7 billion and $8.5 billion (€6.2–7.5 billion) for 2025.

CEO Jim Farley emphasized the advantage of domestic production, noting that Ford’s U.S.-focused footprint places it in a stronger position relative to global rivals. “Automakers with the largest U.S. footprint will have a big advantage, and, boy, that is true for Ford,” Farley said during an earnings call. “But it’s too early to gauge the full impact of industry-wide supply chain disruptions.”

Chief Operating Officer Kumar Galhotra pointed to rare earth materials from China as a growing area of concern, noting that “it would take only a few parts to potentially cause some disruption to our production.”

Despite the growing challenges, Ford’s first-quarter results beat analyst expectations. Net income fell sharply to $471 million (€417 million), a drop of nearly two-thirds from $1.33 billion (€1.17 billion) a year earlier. Revenue declined by 5% to $40.7 billion (€35.9 billion), driven by planned plant shutdowns tied to new product rollouts and inventory adjustments.

The automaker’s results surpassed projections by analysts surveyed by FactSet, who had estimated quarterly revenue of $38 billion (€33.5 billion).

Ford’s relatively limited exposure to tariffs contrasts with peers such as General Motors, which last week warned of a potential $5 billion (€4.4 billion) hit from similar trade actions. Tesla and Ford, with larger U.S.-based production operations, are considered better insulated.

Still, Ford does anticipate modest price increases of 1% to 1.5% in the U.S. auto market during the second half of the year as a result of higher costs for imported cars and parts.

The company plans to provide updated financial guidance when it releases its second-quarter earnings later this year.

Continue Reading

Trending