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Germany Signals Openness to Deploy Troops in Ukraine if Peace Deal Emerges
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has indicated her government’s willingness to support initiatives for lasting peace in Ukraine, including the potential deployment of German soldiers in the event of a peace agreement. Speaking on the sidelines of a NATO meeting in Brussels on Wednesday, Baerbock emphasized that Germany would back “everything that serves peace in the future.”
The remarks come amid renewed debate over Europe’s role in Ukraine following reports that thousands of North Korean soldiers may have been sent to support Russian forces. These developments have raised questions about whether European troops might eventually be deployed to Ukraine under a peace arrangement.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas added to the discussion, stating over the weekend that no options should be ruled out, though any deployment would hinge on Ukraine’s approval.
Ongoing Conflict and Diverging Peace Visions
Despite growing dialogue about potential peace arrangements, the conflict remains far from resolution as it nears its third anniversary. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has advocated for NATO membership as a pathway to ending the “hot stage of the war,” urging that membership should extend to all territory under Kyiv’s control.
However, this proposal clashes with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demands. Putin insists that any peace deal must acknowledge Russia’s territorial gains and include security guarantees, such as Ukraine abandoning aspirations to join NATO.
Zelenskyy hinted at a possible diplomatic solution earlier this week, telling Japan’s Kyodo News that Ukraine’s military lacks the capacity to fully reclaim all Russian-occupied territories.
Potential Shift in German Policy
To date, Germany has refrained from committing troops to Ukraine, focusing instead on financial and military support. During a surprise visit to Kyiv on Monday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced an additional €650 million in military aid, underscoring Berlin’s commitment to supporting Ukraine.
However, Germany’s stance could evolve after snap federal elections scheduled for February 23. The centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Friedrich Merz, currently leads in the polls and has criticized Scholz’s hesitance to provide Ukraine with Taurus missiles. Merz has advocated a more assertive approach, suggesting that allowing Ukraine access to such weapons could increase pressure on Russia.
As NATO allies prepare for the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump in January, uncertainty looms over how his administration might influence the war. Trump has pledged to secure peace but has yet to outline a detailed plan. Reports suggest his team may propose deploying European troops to establish a buffer zone as part of a potential peace agreement.
The evolving geopolitical dynamics and domestic political shifts could significantly shape Germany’s role in Ukraine in the months ahead.
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Russia Demands SWIFT Reconnection as Condition to Revive Black Sea Initiative
Russia has set forth a key demand for the restoration of the Black Sea Initiative—reconnecting its Agricultural Bank, Rosselkhozbank, to the SWIFT financial system. This request, which falls under the jurisdiction of the European Union (EU), comes amid ongoing negotiations between global powers on the war in Ukraine.
Partial Ceasefire and Black Sea Security Agreement
Following recent talks in Saudi Arabia, the United States announced that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to a partial ceasefire specifically covering energy facilities. While this fell short of the broader ceasefire pushed by former President Donald Trump, the parties also agreed on measures to ensure the safe navigation of commercial vessels in the Black Sea and to prevent their use for military purposes.
However, the Kremlin quickly detailed additional conditions, demanding the lifting of sanctions on food exports, fertilizers, agricultural machinery, and cargo insurance. Most notably, Russia is insisting that Rosselkhozbank and other financial institutions involved in agricultural trade be reinstated on SWIFT, a global messaging system that facilitates secure financial transactions.
EU’s Role and Sanctions History
SWIFT, headquartered in Belgium, falls under EU regulations. In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU removed several Russian banks from SWIFT in 2022, including Sberbank, Credit Bank of Moscow, and Rosselkhozbank. The exclusion was a significant blow to Russia’s financial system, as it restricted the country’s ability to conduct international transactions.
Rosselkhozbank, a state-owned institution, plays a critical role in facilitating payments for Russia’s agricultural exports, a major revenue source through the global sale of wheat, barley, and corn. While the EU has not directly sanctioned Russian agricultural exports, the banking restrictions have complicated payments for these transactions, leading to the collapse of the initial Black Sea Initiative brokered by Turkey and the United Nations.
Diplomatic Tensions and Uncertain Outcomes
The demand to reinstate Rosselkhozbank puts the EU in a difficult position. Granting this request could signal a willingness to make concessions, potentially encouraging Russia to seek further sanctions relief. However, refusing it could provoke tensions with the Trump administration, which is eager to secure a ceasefire.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has consistently opposed easing sanctions, arguing that they must remain in place until Russia ends its military aggression. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen echoed this stance, stating that sanctions would only be lifted after Russia takes concrete steps toward peace.
As EU sanctions require unanimous renewal every six months, any member state could disrupt the process. Hungary, which has previously expressed opposition to sanctions, could leverage this situation to push for changes when restrictions are up for review on July 31.
Future of SWIFT and Global Financial Pressures
While the EU holds the power to reinstate Rosselkhozbank’s SWIFT access, the U.S. could signal leniency by ensuring that those engaging with the bank avoid legal repercussions. Analysts suggest that Russia’s demand may be a strategic move to test both Washington and Brussels, pressuring the EU to reconsider its stance on financial restrictions.
For now, the EU remains firm in its approach. France has indicated that sanctions should remain unless Russia agrees to a full ceasefire, reparations, and security guarantees for Ukraine. However, with negotiations ongoing and international pressure mounting, the debate over SWIFT and broader sanctions relief is unlikely to fade anytime soon.
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