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Germany Faces Challenging 2025 Amid Stagnation and Structural Woes

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Germany is bracing for a difficult year in 2025, grappling with stagnating growth, fiscal uncertainty, geopolitical risks, high energy costs, and a weakening automotive sector. Without significant reforms, Europe’s largest economy risks prolonged economic malaise.

Bleak Growth Projections

Germany’s economy has seen minimal growth since late 2019, with 2025 projections among the weakest globally. Real GDP is expected to grow by only 0.3%, according to Goldman Sachs, while the Bundesbank forecasts a mere 0.2% rise. The Kiel Institute predicts outright stagnation at 0.0%.

Weak exports, sluggish private consumption, and faltering investments underpin this stagnation. Structural pressures from decarbonization, digitalization, and demographic changes have further dimmed the outlook.

“It is unclear whether the current phase of stagnation is temporary or signals a permanent and painful adjustment,” said Timo Wollmershäuser of the ifo Institute.

Political and Fiscal Uncertainty

Germany’s early federal elections in February 2025 add to the uncertainty. Investors are keenly watching whether a new government will tap into Germany’s strong fiscal capacity to stimulate growth.

Although Germany has one of the lowest debt-to-GDP ratios among advanced economies, its constitutional “debt brake” limits public borrowing. Analysts warn that without pro-growth reforms, such as tax incentives and infrastructure spending, Germany may lag behind its European neighbors.

“Fiscal policy is set to be restrictive this year and in the next two years,” the Bundesbank noted. The Kiel Institute echoed concerns, highlighting how election-related uncertainty has already dented business confidence.

Challenges in the Automotive Sector

Germany’s automotive industry, a cornerstone of its economy, faces mounting pressures. Major players like Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz have lost market share to U.S. and Chinese competitors, particularly in electric vehicles.

China, once Germany’s top export market, has become a rival. Disappointing growth in China and trade policy uncertainties have also weighed on German automobile exports.

“The automotive sector reflects structural changes and declining export competitiveness,” the Kiel Institute stated.

Geopolitical Risks and Trade Protectionism

Germany’s export-driven economy remains vulnerable to global protectionism, particularly anticipated trade barriers under the incoming Trump administration. Analysts warn that potential U.S. tariffs could shrink Germany’s GDP by up to 1.2%, compounding economic woes.

High Energy Costs and Inflation

Elevated energy costs continue to burden German industries. The Bundesbank reported that production in energy-intensive sectors has contracted by up to 15%. Inflation, while easing from its 2022 peak, is projected to remain above pre-pandemic levels at 2.4% in 2025.

Urgent Need for Reforms

Experts stress that Germany must enact reforms to reduce corporate tax burdens, expand infrastructure, and address labor shortages. Without these measures, structural stagnation could persist.

“The German economy is not only struggling with economic headwinds but also with structural problems,” said Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel.

As Germany navigates these challenges, its economic recovery remains uncertain, with risks overshadowing potential growth opportunities.

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Ukrainian Women Lead Europe in Entrepreneurial Ambitions, New Study Finds

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A new study commissioned by Mastercard reveals that Ukrainian women have the highest entrepreneurial aspirations in Europe, despite facing war and economic uncertainty. According to the report, 66% of Ukrainian women plan to start their own businesses, a figure that rises to 83% among Gen Z women.

Women in Ukraine Defy Challenges to Pursue Entrepreneurship

The study highlights how Ukrainian women are turning to business ownership as a means of financial stability and social impact. Many cite lack of funds (76%), lack of experience (47%), and lack of confidence (38%) as barriers, yet their resilience remains strong.

Among the most popular industries for female entrepreneurs in Ukraine are online sales (22%), education (17%), agriculture (15%), and food and drink (15%).

Mastercard emphasized the role of female entrepreneurs in economic resilience and recovery, citing stories like Inna Bozhko, a businesswoman from Kharkiv. Bozhko, a mother of a child with cerebral palsy, opened Barbershop Inclusive, which includes a soundproofed area for children with sensory sensitivities. She received support from the Mastercard Center for Inclusive Growth, demonstrating how financial backing and mentorship can help women succeed.

Portugal, Poland, and Greece Lead Female Entrepreneurship in the EU

Within the European Union, Portugal, Poland, and Greece have the highest number of women aspiring to start businesses.

  • Portugal: 62% of women have considered starting a business, with 56% actively planning to do so.
  • Poland: 47% of women have shown interest, with 36% making concrete plans.
  • Greece: 46% are considering entrepreneurship, with the same percentage moving forward with their plans.

Portuguese women stand out not only for their business ambitions but also for their financial literacy. The study found that Portuguese women are twice as confident in handling finances compared to the average European woman.

Gen Z Women Are Driving Change

The study also highlights the influence of Gen Z women, who are increasingly motivated by a desire to make a positive impact.

  • 19% of Gen Z women in Europe say they want to start businesses to “do something good for the world,” compared to 13% of Millennials and 14% of Gen X.
  • Their preferred industries include education, childcare, and cosmetics, with beauty entrepreneurship being the most popular sector (26% vs. 10% European average).

Challenges and Solutions for Female Entrepreneurs

Despite their ambition, women across Europe continue to face significant barriers when starting businesses. The study identified three major concerns:

  1. Fear of failure (31%)
  2. Lack of financial resources (29%)
  3. Lack of experience (28%)

In addition, many women struggle with balancing family responsibilities, which can limit their ability to pursue business ventures.

However, Mastercard and Amazon Web Services (AWS) believe that digital technology can help bridge the gap. From AI-powered automation to e-commerce platforms, technological advancements are making it easier for women to start, manage, and scale their businesses.

Empowering the Next Generation of Female Entrepreneurs

AWS Vice President Tanuja Randery, a founder of the PowerWomen Network, emphasized the need for sponsorship, mentorship, and financial support for women entrepreneurs.

“To accelerate female entrepreneurship and enable the next unicorns in Europe, we need to ensure women have access to the right sponsors, networks, and funding,” Randery told Euronews Business.

She offered three key pieces of advice for aspiring female entrepreneurs:

  1. Have a plan – “If you don’t know where you’re going, any road will take you there.”
  2. Find sponsors, not just mentors – “Women are often over-mentored but under-sponsored.”
  3. Take risks – “Move across industries and geographies, embrace feedback, and stay true to yourself.”

As entrepreneurial ambition among women grows across Europe, particularly in Ukraine, greater financial access, mentorship, and digital tools could help unlock the full potential of female-led businesses.

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Just Eat Launches Drone Food Delivery in Dublin

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Dublin has become the latest city to embrace drone-powered food delivery as Just Eat Takeaway.com partners with Irish drone operator Manna Drones Ltd to introduce the service.

The Dutch multinational food delivery company announced that customers in select areas of the Irish capital can now receive their meals via drones, dramatically reducing delivery times. “Customers will have the choice to receive their orders from participating partners via drones, which will be deployed from local delivery hubs operated by Manna,” Just Eat Takeaway.com said in a statement.

Once an order is prepared and loaded onto a drone, it can reach customers in as little as three minutes, the company added. The collaboration marks a significant step toward integrating drone technology into mainstream food delivery, with plans to expand the service to other markets in the future.

Just Eat Takeaway.com operates in 17 countries, including Germany, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland. The move comes amid a period of transition for the company, which delisted from the London Stock Exchange in December and announced in February that it was being acquired by tech investor Prosus in a €4.1 billion all-cash deal.

The food delivery industry has been increasingly turning to automation to enhance efficiency and reduce reliance on gig economy workers, whose employment conditions have been the subject of ongoing debate. Just Eat Takeaway.com says its drone service will improve operational efficiency and provide faster deliveries, especially during peak hours.

The company joins a growing list of firms investing in drone delivery. In the United States, Walmart and Amazon have already launched similar services, while in Europe, Berlin-based Foodora Group—part of Delivery Hero—is testing deliveries using both drones and autonomous robots in Norway and Sweden. In Sweden, the firm is working with telecom provider Tele2 AB to integrate GPS-based robot home deliveries, with full-scale rollout expected across Nordic countries by 2025 and 2026.

With the introduction of drone deliveries, Just Eat Takeaway.com is positioning itself at the forefront of food delivery innovation, potentially reshaping how meals are delivered in cities worldwide.

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EU Agrees to Boost Defence Spending as Germany Pushes for Fiscal Reform

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The European Union member states have reached an agreement to increase defence spending, aligning with Germany’s push to ease fiscal constraints. The decision has had immediate financial repercussions, driving the German stock market to new highs and causing government bond yields to soar.

EU Backs Increased Defence Spending

On Thursday, all 27 EU member states unanimously approved a policy statement supporting higher defence expenditure. The move follows European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s proposal to activate a mechanism that would mobilize €800 billion in special funds for defence. The agreement also includes provisions for an additional €150 billion in special loans, underscoring the bloc’s commitment to strengthening military capabilities.

The statement suggests that defence spending could be excluded from the EU’s existing debt and deficit rules, a key point in Germany’s recent campaign for fiscal reform. This clause aligns with Berlin’s efforts to relax its self-imposed “debt brake” and boost investment in national defence. Germany has maintained strict spending discipline for over a decade following the 2009 sovereign debt crisis, but Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz has argued that increased military funding should not be constrained by traditional fiscal limits.

Earlier this week, Merz emphasized the need for Germany to take decisive action in bolstering its defence, advocating for spending beyond 1% of GDP. His CDU/CSU party and the SPD, currently negotiating a coalition agreement, have also proposed a €500 billion special fund for infrastructure investment, further signaling a shift in fiscal policy.

EU Reaffirms Support for Ukraine Despite Hungary’s Veto

Alongside the defence spending agreement, the EU issued a separate statement reaffirming its commitment to Ukraine, despite Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s opposition to additional aid. The statement declared that the EU would continue providing “enhanced political, financial, economic, humanitarian, military, and diplomatic support to Ukraine,” while also strengthening sanctions against Russia.

Financial Markets Respond to Policy Shift

The EU’s decision has had immediate economic implications, particularly in Germany. The DAX index rose 1.47% to a record high of 23,419.48, reflecting investor optimism over potential fiscal expansion. The index has surged more than 17% this year, driven in part by expectations of increased military spending. Defence sector stocks, in particular, saw a sharp uptick as markets anticipated future government contracts and spending initiatives.

In addition to stock market gains, Germany’s borrowing costs also surged. The yield on Germany’s 10-year government bond climbed to 2.88%, its highest level since October 2023. The benchmark bond yield saw a 30-basis-point jump in the previous trading session, marking the largest single-day increase since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1990. This sharp rise suggests that investors are demanding a risk premium in response to potential fiscal policy changes.

Meanwhile, the euro stabilized against the US dollar, holding steady at a four-month high near 1.08. However, inflationary concerns remain, with analysts speculating that the European Central Bank (ECB) may slow the pace of interest rate cuts. Increased military spending, coupled with geopolitical uncertainty, could further influence inflationary pressures and monetary policy adjustments.

Looking Ahead

The EU’s decision to boost defence spending marks a significant policy shift, particularly for Germany, which has long adhered to strict fiscal discipline. As the bloc moves forward with these financial and military commitments, economic and geopolitical factors will play a crucial role in shaping the future trajectory of European defence and fiscal policy.

 

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