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Fragile Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Holds Amid Violations
A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, brokered on November 27, has held for over a month despite repeated violations and slow progress on its terms. Analysts suggest the truce is likely to persist, offering relief to thousands displaced by the conflict, even as challenges remain ahead of the January deadline.
The agreement required Hezbollah to cease hostilities in southern Lebanon and Israel to withdraw from the region, transferring control to the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers within 60 days. While Hezbollah has largely halted rocket attacks, Israel has withdrawn from only two of approximately 60 towns it occupies in southern Lebanon. Israeli forces continue targeted strikes, citing Hezbollah’s alleged attempts to move weapons and prepare rocket launches.
Ceasefire Implementation and Violations
Both sides have accused the other of violating the truce. Lebanon filed a complaint with the UN Security Council, reporting 816 Israeli attacks between November 27 and December 22. Meanwhile, Israel alleges Hezbollah has committed hundreds of violations, including moving ammunition and launching rockets.
The ambiguity in the ceasefire terms has contributed to its durability, according to Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. “The agreement’s flexibility allows it to adapt to changing circumstances,” he noted.
Challenges in Withdrawal
Israel’s withdrawal has been slower than expected, with military officials citing the lack of sufficient Lebanese forces to take over. Lebanon disputes this, arguing it is awaiting Israel’s withdrawal before deploying troops. Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, an Israeli spokesperson, emphasized security concerns as the priority.
The 60-day deadline for Israel’s withdrawal is not seen as rigid. Experts, including Harel Chorev of Tel Aviv University, suggest Lebanon will need to mobilize significantly more troops before a full transfer can occur.
Hezbollah’s Position and Future Risks
Weakened by 14 months of conflict and the loss of key supply routes following the ousting of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, Hezbollah appears reluctant to resume hostilities. Its Secretary General, Naim Kassem, recently stated the group is refraining from action to allow the Lebanese state to enforce the agreement.
Despite this, former Lebanese army General Hassan Jouni warned that if Israeli forces remain beyond the deadline, guerrilla-style attacks by Hezbollah or other groups could occur. Even if Israel withdraws ground troops, sporadic airstrikes may continue, similar to its operations in Syria.
As the ceasefire approaches its January deadline, its durability will depend on the ability of both sides to navigate the complex terms of the agreement and avoid further escalation.
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Russia Demands SWIFT Reconnection as Condition to Revive Black Sea Initiative
Russia has set forth a key demand for the restoration of the Black Sea Initiative—reconnecting its Agricultural Bank, Rosselkhozbank, to the SWIFT financial system. This request, which falls under the jurisdiction of the European Union (EU), comes amid ongoing negotiations between global powers on the war in Ukraine.
Partial Ceasefire and Black Sea Security Agreement
Following recent talks in Saudi Arabia, the United States announced that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to a partial ceasefire specifically covering energy facilities. While this fell short of the broader ceasefire pushed by former President Donald Trump, the parties also agreed on measures to ensure the safe navigation of commercial vessels in the Black Sea and to prevent their use for military purposes.
However, the Kremlin quickly detailed additional conditions, demanding the lifting of sanctions on food exports, fertilizers, agricultural machinery, and cargo insurance. Most notably, Russia is insisting that Rosselkhozbank and other financial institutions involved in agricultural trade be reinstated on SWIFT, a global messaging system that facilitates secure financial transactions.
EU’s Role and Sanctions History
SWIFT, headquartered in Belgium, falls under EU regulations. In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU removed several Russian banks from SWIFT in 2022, including Sberbank, Credit Bank of Moscow, and Rosselkhozbank. The exclusion was a significant blow to Russia’s financial system, as it restricted the country’s ability to conduct international transactions.
Rosselkhozbank, a state-owned institution, plays a critical role in facilitating payments for Russia’s agricultural exports, a major revenue source through the global sale of wheat, barley, and corn. While the EU has not directly sanctioned Russian agricultural exports, the banking restrictions have complicated payments for these transactions, leading to the collapse of the initial Black Sea Initiative brokered by Turkey and the United Nations.
Diplomatic Tensions and Uncertain Outcomes
The demand to reinstate Rosselkhozbank puts the EU in a difficult position. Granting this request could signal a willingness to make concessions, potentially encouraging Russia to seek further sanctions relief. However, refusing it could provoke tensions with the Trump administration, which is eager to secure a ceasefire.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has consistently opposed easing sanctions, arguing that they must remain in place until Russia ends its military aggression. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen echoed this stance, stating that sanctions would only be lifted after Russia takes concrete steps toward peace.
As EU sanctions require unanimous renewal every six months, any member state could disrupt the process. Hungary, which has previously expressed opposition to sanctions, could leverage this situation to push for changes when restrictions are up for review on July 31.
Future of SWIFT and Global Financial Pressures
While the EU holds the power to reinstate Rosselkhozbank’s SWIFT access, the U.S. could signal leniency by ensuring that those engaging with the bank avoid legal repercussions. Analysts suggest that Russia’s demand may be a strategic move to test both Washington and Brussels, pressuring the EU to reconsider its stance on financial restrictions.
For now, the EU remains firm in its approach. France has indicated that sanctions should remain unless Russia agrees to a full ceasefire, reparations, and security guarantees for Ukraine. However, with negotiations ongoing and international pressure mounting, the debate over SWIFT and broader sanctions relief is unlikely to fade anytime soon.
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