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Fed’s Hawkish Stance Sparks Market Sell-Off

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Wall Street experienced a sharp decline as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell adopted a hawkish tone during the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The dollar surged to a two-year high, Treasury yields spiked, and Bitcoin tumbled following Powell’s warning of inflation risks and cautious approach to future rate cuts.

The FOMC, as expected, announced a 25-basis-point rate cut, bringing the target range to 4.25%-4.50%. However, the updated economic projections dampened investor sentiment, indicating only two rate cuts in 2025, a significant shift from the four cuts projected in September.

Powell Signals “New Phase” for Monetary Policy

In a press conference, Powell highlighted the Fed’s cautious stance moving forward. “From here, it’s a new phase, and we’re going to be cautious about further cuts,” he said, adding that interest rates are nearing neutral levels—neither stimulating nor restricting economic growth.

While emphasizing the resilience of the U.S. economy, Powell downplayed recession risks. “Most forecasters have been predicting a slowdown in growth for a very long time, and it keeps not happening,” he stated.

Fresh inflation projections fueled the Fed’s recalibrated stance. Headline inflation for 2025 is now expected to hit 2.5%, up from 2.1%, while core inflation is also forecasted at 2.5%, up from 2.2%. Powell reiterated the Fed’s commitment to achieving its 2% inflation target, though he acknowledged it could take “another year or two.”

Market Reaction: Stocks Plunge, Dollar and Yields Surge

The Fed’s stance triggered a broad market sell-off. The S&P 500 fell 3.03% to 5,866.80, the Nasdaq 100 sank 3.74%, and the Dow Jones dropped 1,103 points (-2.54%). Tesla Inc. led the tech sector’s decline, plummeting 8.1%. The CBOE Volatility Index, a measure of market fear, spiked nearly 60%, reflecting heightened investor anxiety.

The dollar index (DXY) climbed 1.22% to 108.265, its highest level in two years, while the euro slid 1.33% to $1.03518, its weakest point since November 2022. Commodities were not spared, with gold dropping 2.3% to $2,584 and silver tumbling 3.9% to a five-week low. Treasury yields surged as investors reassessed rate-cut expectations, with the 10-year yield rising 12 basis points to 4.52%, the highest since late May.

Bitcoin Falls as Powell Rejects Crypto Reserve Tool

Cryptocurrency markets faced additional pressure as Powell dismissed the idea of a U.S. government-backed Bitcoin reserve. “We’re not allowed to own Bitcoin,” Powell clarified, citing legal constraints. Bitcoin fell over 5%, dropping to approximately $100,000, further straining the market.

As the Fed signaled a cautious path forward, concerns over restrictive monetary policy, inflation, and broader economic challenges have fueled investor unease, setting the stage for continued market volatility.

 

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China Raises Tariffs to 125% in Retaliation Against US Trade Measures

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China announced it will raise tariffs on all US imports to 125%, effective Saturday, in direct response to the United States’ latest hike in levies. The move intensifies the ongoing trade standoff between the world’s two largest economies, deepening uncertainty across global markets.

The decision follows US President Donald Trump’s announcement earlier this week to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%, citing Beijing’s “lack of respect for the world’s markets.” While China has now matched the US with its own 125% tariff, officials in Beijing stated that they will not raise duties any further — for now.

“Even if the US continues to impose higher tariffs, it will no longer make economic sense and will become a joke in the history of the world economy,” said China’s Ministry of Finance in a sharply worded statement. “At the current tariff level, there is no market acceptance for US goods exported to China.”

The ministry added that while Beijing would no longer engage in what it called a “tariff numbers game,” it would not hesitate to “resolutely counterattack and fight to the end” if Washington continued to infringe on Chinese interests.

The tariff escalation is the latest development in a tense trade dispute that saw Trump initially announce a sweeping set of “reciprocal” tariffs on April 2. However, earlier this week, the president partially paused most of these levies for 90 days — sparing countries such as Canada, Japan, and Germany. China was notably excluded from the exemption.

“Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the world’s markets, I am hereby raising the tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately,” Trump declared in a social media post.

The ongoing tit-for-tat has rattled financial markets. In early trading Friday, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both fell, extending a week of volatility. The US dollar also slipped nearly 2% against the euro following China’s announcement, further reflecting investor unease.

Analysts warn that Trump’s aggressive trade measures could be undermining investor confidence in US assets, particularly government bonds. Long considered a safe haven, US Treasuries have seen a sharp sell-off, driving yields higher and potentially raising government borrowing costs.

China remains the second-largest foreign holder of US debt, with around $759 billion in Treasury securities. As tensions rise, some speculate that Beijing could consider reducing its exposure to US bonds as a retaliatory measure.

Meanwhile, Chinese Premier Li Qiang has reached out to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in a bid to build a broader coalition against Trump’s tariffs. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stressed the need for international support, stating, “A just cause receives support from many. The US cannot win the support of the people and will end in failure.”

Despite China’s outreach, it remains uncertain whether other nations — some of which have their own disputes with Beijing — will rally behind it. In 2024, the value of trade in goods between the US and China reached nearly $700 billion, underscoring the high stakes in the ongoing economic battle.

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Euro Hits Three-Year High as Investors Abandon US Assets Amid Tariff Turmoil

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The euro surged to a three-year high against the US dollar on Friday, as growing global market volatility and uncertainty surrounding US trade policies drove investors to offload American assets and seek refuge in traditional safe-haven currencies.

During the Asian trading session, the euro climbed sharply, with the EUR/USD pair reaching 1.1387, its highest level since early 2022. The rise follows a broader flight from the dollar sparked by US President Donald Trump’s erratic tariff decisions, which included a sharp hike to 145% on Chinese imports, while pausing reciprocal tariffs for other nations.

Other major currencies, particularly traditional safe havens like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen, also strengthened. The USD/CHF pair dipped below 0.82 — a level not seen since January 2015, when the Swiss National Bank removed its euro peg. Similarly, the USD/JPY fell to just above 143, its weakest point since September 2024. The US Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of major currencies, dropped below the key 100 level for the first time since July 2023.

Despite President Trump’s optimistic tone — claiming on Thursday that “in the end it’s going to be a beautiful thing” — markets reacted with continued sell-offs in US equities and Treasuries. Wall Street saw another sharp drop, with the S&P 500 shedding 3.46%, the Nasdaq falling 4.31%, and the Dow Jones declining 2.5%.

The broader sell-off extended to US government bonds. Yields on the 10-year and 30-year Treasuries rose by 11 and 21 basis points, respectively, as investors demanded higher returns to offset growing economic risks. Typically considered safe investments, US bonds are now under pressure amid fears of a slowing economy and continued inflationary shocks.

Meanwhile, gold soared to new record highs as investors turned to the precious metal for security. Spot gold prices jumped to $3,218 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures hit $3,238 per ounce. Since Wednesday, gold has risen 8%, reversing losses from earlier in the week. According to Bloomberg, Chinese investors poured over $1 billion into gold-backed ETFs following Trump’s tariff announcement. The World Gold Council also reported that global gold ETF holdings reached $345 billion in March — a new monthly high.

Despite the negative sentiment in US and Asian markets, European equities appeared resilient. Futures indicated a positive opening across major indices. As of early Friday morning, the Euro Stoxx 50 was up 0.57%, Germany’s DAX rose 0.61%, and London’s FTSE 100 gained 0.49%.

With growing investor distrust in the dollar and renewed confidence in European stability, the euro’s resurgence is reshaping global capital flows — but persistent geopolitical and trade tensions could continue to unsettle markets in the weeks ahead.

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Markets Soar as Trump Pauses Tariffs and Sparks Controversy with Financial Post

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Global stock markets staged a dramatic rebound Wednesday after former President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on most of his administration’s “reciprocal” tariffs, reversing course amid mounting economic turmoil. The move came just hours after Trump posted on his social media platform, Truth Social, encouraging followers to invest — prompting both market euphoria and ethical scrutiny.

THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT,” Trump wrote at 9:37 a.m. Eastern Time, as major U.S. indices hovered between gains and losses. By the afternoon, Trump declared a pause on nearly all tariffs for three months. Investors responded swiftly: the Nasdaq surged 12.2%, the S&P 500 jumped 9.5%, and the Dow Jones rose 7.9%, recouping roughly $4 trillion in value that had been lost in just four days.

While Wall Street cheered, ethics experts raised red flags over the timing and potential implications of Trump’s online post. Richard Painter, a former White House ethics lawyer, warned that the post could trigger legal concerns if the tariff decision had already been made.

“He’s loving this — this control over markets — but he better be careful,” Painter said. “The people who bought when they saw that post made a lot of money.”

Asked about the timing of the tariff decision, Trump offered a vague explanation: “I would say this morning… Over the last few days, I’ve been thinking about it.” A White House spokesperson later declined to clarify, stating only that Trump’s post was part of his responsibility to “reassure the markets.”

Adding to the controversy was Trump’s use of his initials, “DJT,” at the end of the post. While sometimes used to signify personal authorship, the initials are also the stock symbol for Trump Media and Technology Group — the parent company of Truth Social. The ambiguity triggered a buying frenzy for Trump Media shares, which skyrocketed 22.7% by the close, outperforming broader indices. The company, which reported $400 million in losses last year, has limited connection to trade policy, raising further questions about the surge.

Trump holds a 53% stake in Trump Media via a trust managed by his son, Donald Trump Jr. Wednesday’s rally boosted the value of that stake by an estimated $415 million.

Meanwhile, Tesla — another stock favored by the Trump administration — edged out Trump Media with a 22.9% jump. The electric vehicle maker benefited from recent praise by Trump at a White House news conference and an endorsement from his Commerce Secretary during a television appearance. The surge added $20 billion to Elon Musk’s personal fortune.

While the market rejoiced, legal experts like Kathleen Clark of Washington University said the incident highlights a worrying trend. “He’s sending the message that he can manipulate the market with impunity,” she said. “As in: watch this space for future stock tips.”

The tariff pause is expected to spark further negotiations and market shifts in the weeks ahead. But for now, Trump’s online post and its ripple effects have ignited a fresh debate about ethics, influence, and economic power in the digital age.

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