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Eurozone Inflation Rises to 2.5% in January as Markets React to US Tariff Threats

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Eurozone inflation exceeded expectations in January, rising to 2.5% from 2.4% in December, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat. Despite the increase, the euro weakened, and European stock markets tumbled, as investor concerns over potential US tariffs overshadowed expectations of a more aggressive monetary policy response from the European Central Bank (ECB).

Inflation Surpasses Forecasts

Economists had forecast inflation to remain steady at 2.4%, but the latest figures mark the highest rate since July 2024. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, held firm at 2.7%, defying predictions of a slight dip to 2.6%.

Among the key inflation components:

  • Services recorded the highest annual price growth at 3.9%, down slightly from 4.0% in December.
  • Food, alcohol, and tobacco prices rose 2.3%, a slowdown from 2.6% the previous month.
  • Energy prices surged to 1.8%, rebounding sharply from 0.1% in December.
  • Non-energy industrial goods inflation remained unchanged at 0.5%.

Among Eurozone member states, Croatia posted the highest annual inflation rate at 5.0%, followed by Belgium (4.4%) and Slovakia (4.1%). Ireland (1.5%), Finland (1.6%), and Italy (1.7%) recorded the lowest inflation rates.

Markets React: Euro Under Pressure

Despite the stronger-than-expected inflation data, the euro remained under pressure, falling 1.2% on the day against the US dollar and briefly finding support at 1.0230. Earlier in January, the currency hit 1.0175, its lowest level since November 2022.

The weakness came amid renewed fears of US tariffs on European goods. US President Donald Trump reiterated threats to impose tariffs on the European Union, warning they could be implemented “pretty soon.” The US has already enforced 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods and 10% on Chinese imports, sparking fears that Europe could be next.

“Tariffs will continue to dominate the markets, and some traders still believe they could be reversed,” said BBVA’s Alejandro Cuadrado, warning that the full impact is not yet priced into FX markets.

ING’s Francesco Pesole also noted that the prospect of a global trade war remains a key downside risk for the euro, adding that an upcoming US trade report in April could keep EUR/USD under selling pressure.

European Stocks Tumble, Auto Sector Hit Hardest

European stock markets saw sharp declines, with the Euro STOXX 50 falling 1.9% and Germany’s DAX index dropping 2%. The auto sector suffered the steepest losses as fears of US tariffs on European cars rattled investors:

  • Volkswagen shares fell over 6%
  • Mercedes-Benz declined 4.9%
  • BMW lost 4.5%
  • Stellantis dropped 7% in Milan trading
  • Pirelli shares slid 5.5%

Investors Flock to Bonds Amid Uncertainty

The uncertainty surrounding US trade policy led investors to seek refuge in sovereign bonds, pushing yields lower across Europe.

  • German Bund yields fell 8 basis points to 2.40%
  • French OAT yields declined 6 basis points to 3.15%

As markets digest the latest inflation data and trade tensions escalate, all eyes remain on the ECB’s response and the US administration’s next move regarding tariffs on Europe.

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Amazon Expands Job Creation in Europe’s High-Unemployment Regions, Invests Billions in Cloud and Infrastructure

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Amazon has announced significant investments aimed at driving job growth across Europe’s high-unemployment regions, as part of its broader economic impact strategy. The announcement coincides with the release of the company’s 2024 Europe Impact Report, which revealed Amazon contributed over €41 billion to Europe’s GDP, including €29 billion to the EU27 alone.

The figure is comparable to the entire GDP of Latvia, underscoring Amazon’s growing footprint across the continent. “Our economic impact in Europe goes far beyond the numbers,” said Mariangela Marseglia, Vice President of Amazon Stores EU. “We’re creating opportunities where they’re needed most, supporting local economies, and helping to revitalize communities across the continent.”

Amazon currently employs over 150,000 people across the EU, with more than 90,000 jobs located in areas suffering from above-average unemployment, according to Eurostat. One of the most striking examples is in France’s Hauts-de-France region, where unemployment is 8.7%. There, Amazon has created over 6,000 jobs in the past decade, including 2,600 permanent roles at its Lauwin-Planque fulfillment center.

A recent survey revealed 71% of locals view Amazon’s presence positively, and 94% highlight job creation as a key benefit. Research by Ipsos further supports this trend, showing that 81% of residents near Amazon logistics centers have seen job opportunities increase. More than half report financial improvements that influence long-term life decisions like homeownership or starting a family.

Amazon has also confirmed it does not use zero-hour contracts in any European countries where they are legally permitted, maintaining consistent employment standards across the region.

In terms of long-term investments, Amazon poured over €55 billion into infrastructure and workforce development across Europe in 2024 alone, with €38 billion going to EU member states. Since 2010, total investment has surpassed €320 billion.

Future plans heavily involve Amazon Web Services (AWS), which continues to expand across major European tech hubs. In Germany, Amazon plans to invest €8.8 billion in Frankfurt through 2026, supporting 15,200 jobs and contributing €15.4 billion to the country’s GDP. In the UK, an £8 billion (€9.5 billion) investment will support 14,000 jobs annually through 2028. France is set to benefit from €6 billion in cloud infrastructure investment by 2031, projected to generate €16.8 billion in GDP and support over 5,200 jobs annually.

As Amazon diversifies its European operations, these strategic investments aim to foster employment, boost regional economies, and solidify its presence as a key driver of growth and innovation across the continent.

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European Steel Stocks Slide as Trump Tariff Hike Boosts U.S. Rivals

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Shares of leading European steel producers dipped on Tuesday as markets reacted to former U.S. President Donald Trump’s plans to double tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, escalating concerns of renewed global trade tensions.

Trump’s proposal, which would increase existing tariffs from 25% to 50%, is set to take effect on June 4. The move has already jolted steel markets, sending European steel stocks lower while fueling gains among American producers. Trump defended the decision on his social media platform, Truth Social, declaring the measure a boost for U.S. industry: “Our steel and aluminum industries are coming back like never before. This will be yet another BIG jolt of great news for our wonderful steel and aluminum workers.”

European investors appeared less optimistic. German steelmaker Thyssenkrupp saw its shares fall 0.5% on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange on Tuesday, while Salzgitter AG slipped 0.4%. ArcelorMittal, one of the world’s largest steel manufacturers, dropped 1.1% on the Euronext Amsterdam. Austria’s Voestalpine AG also registered a 0.8% decline in Vienna.

Conversely, U.S. steel stocks rallied sharply following the announcement. Cleveland-Cliffs surged 23.2%, while Nucor and Steel Dynamics rose 10.1% and 10.3% respectively by Monday’s close, as investors bet on improved prospects for domestic producers shielded from international competition.

Despite the short-term boost for U.S. steel firms, the tariff hike has sparked fresh concerns about the broader economic consequences. Economists warn that the protectionist approach could backfire, raising costs for U.S. industries that rely heavily on imported aluminium and steel — particularly in the automotive and construction sectors.

Felix Tintelnot, professor of economics at Duke University, said the uncertainty surrounding such policy shifts makes long-term investment risky. “We’re talking about expansion of capacity of heavy industry that comes with significant upfront investments, and no business leader should take heavy upfront investments if they don’t believe that the same policy [will be] there two, three, or four years from now,” he told TIME.

Tintelnot further cautioned against setting trade policies unilaterally, emphasizing the need for a predictable economic framework. “Regardless of whether you’re in favour [of] or against these tariffs, you don’t want the President to just set tax rates arbitrarily, sort of by Executive Order all the time,” he said.

As global markets assess the potential fallout, the European steel industry may be bracing for more volatility, while U.S. manufacturers weigh the longer-term impact of a possibly inflationary policy shift.

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European Markets Slide as U.S.-China Tariff Tensions Escalate

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European stock markets slipped on Monday afternoon as renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China unsettled investors, reigniting fears of a prolonged global trade dispute.

By 13:05 CEST, all major European indexes were trading in negative territory. The EURO STOXX 50 had dropped 0.68%, Germany’s DAX was down 0.48%, and France’s CAC 40 had fallen by 0.63%.

The downturn followed comments from Beijing accusing the United States of “severely violating” the terms of their recent trade agreement, prompting concerns of a fresh round of retaliatory measures. Investors were also reacting to U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement that tariffs on steel and aluminium imports would be doubled from 25% to 50% starting Wednesday.

“Donald Trump has upset markets once again,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, in a note shared with Euronews. “Doubling import taxes on steel and aluminium, and aggravating China once again, mean we face a situation where uncertainty prevails. Trump’s continuous moving of the goalposts is frustrating for businesses, governments, consumers, and investors.”

Market sentiment soured across Europe and Asia, with futures suggesting a similarly weak open for Wall Street later in the day. In response to rising uncertainty, investors turned to safe-haven assets, giving gold a boost.

U.S. Market Outlook Mixed

While U.S. equity markets ended May relatively flat, major indices posted solid gains over the month, lifted by earlier optimism around easing trade tensions. However, that sentiment is now under pressure.

“The latest broadsides from the White House were primarily directed at China and the EU, with both threatening a response in kind to any further tariff hikes,” said Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor.

Still, there were some encouraging economic signals. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, came in lower than expected, while consumer sentiment surprised on the upside. Analysts caution, however, that these may be temporary reprieves.

Looking ahead, attention is turning to U.S. non-farm payroll data due at the end of the week. Economists forecast 130,000 new jobs added in May, down from 177,000 the previous month, with unemployment expected to hold at 4.2%.

Despite recent gains, U.S. markets remain fragile. Year-to-date, the Dow Jones is down 0.6%, the Nasdaq 1%, while the S&P 500 has managed a modest 0.5% rise, bolstered in part by strength in large-cap tech stocks.

Asian Markets Also Weigh Trade and Geopolitics

Asian markets also came under pressure. The Hang Seng index fell amid renewed concerns over U.S. tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty stemming from ongoing Russia-Ukraine tensions.

Mainland China’s markets were closed for a public holiday, but investors expect potential losses upon reopening, particularly after recent data showed further contraction in factory activity.

With trade tensions heating up again, global markets are bracing for a volatile start to June.

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