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Eurozone Inflation Rises to 2.5% in January as Markets React to US Tariff Threats

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Eurozone inflation exceeded expectations in January, rising to 2.5% from 2.4% in December, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat. Despite the increase, the euro weakened, and European stock markets tumbled, as investor concerns over potential US tariffs overshadowed expectations of a more aggressive monetary policy response from the European Central Bank (ECB).

Inflation Surpasses Forecasts

Economists had forecast inflation to remain steady at 2.4%, but the latest figures mark the highest rate since July 2024. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, held firm at 2.7%, defying predictions of a slight dip to 2.6%.

Among the key inflation components:

  • Services recorded the highest annual price growth at 3.9%, down slightly from 4.0% in December.
  • Food, alcohol, and tobacco prices rose 2.3%, a slowdown from 2.6% the previous month.
  • Energy prices surged to 1.8%, rebounding sharply from 0.1% in December.
  • Non-energy industrial goods inflation remained unchanged at 0.5%.

Among Eurozone member states, Croatia posted the highest annual inflation rate at 5.0%, followed by Belgium (4.4%) and Slovakia (4.1%). Ireland (1.5%), Finland (1.6%), and Italy (1.7%) recorded the lowest inflation rates.

Markets React: Euro Under Pressure

Despite the stronger-than-expected inflation data, the euro remained under pressure, falling 1.2% on the day against the US dollar and briefly finding support at 1.0230. Earlier in January, the currency hit 1.0175, its lowest level since November 2022.

The weakness came amid renewed fears of US tariffs on European goods. US President Donald Trump reiterated threats to impose tariffs on the European Union, warning they could be implemented “pretty soon.” The US has already enforced 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods and 10% on Chinese imports, sparking fears that Europe could be next.

“Tariffs will continue to dominate the markets, and some traders still believe they could be reversed,” said BBVA’s Alejandro Cuadrado, warning that the full impact is not yet priced into FX markets.

ING’s Francesco Pesole also noted that the prospect of a global trade war remains a key downside risk for the euro, adding that an upcoming US trade report in April could keep EUR/USD under selling pressure.

European Stocks Tumble, Auto Sector Hit Hardest

European stock markets saw sharp declines, with the Euro STOXX 50 falling 1.9% and Germany’s DAX index dropping 2%. The auto sector suffered the steepest losses as fears of US tariffs on European cars rattled investors:

  • Volkswagen shares fell over 6%
  • Mercedes-Benz declined 4.9%
  • BMW lost 4.5%
  • Stellantis dropped 7% in Milan trading
  • Pirelli shares slid 5.5%

Investors Flock to Bonds Amid Uncertainty

The uncertainty surrounding US trade policy led investors to seek refuge in sovereign bonds, pushing yields lower across Europe.

  • German Bund yields fell 8 basis points to 2.40%
  • French OAT yields declined 6 basis points to 3.15%

As markets digest the latest inflation data and trade tensions escalate, all eyes remain on the ECB’s response and the US administration’s next move regarding tariffs on Europe.

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Global Markets in Turmoil as U.S. Tariffs Trigger Trade War Fears

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Global financial markets plunged into turmoil on Monday following U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose sweeping tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, escalating fears of an all-out trade war.

Trump Moves Ahead with Tariffs Despite Global Concerns

On Saturday, President Trump signed an executive order imposing 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports and 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, set to take effect Tuesday. To mitigate potential spikes in energy costs, Canadian energy imports will face a reduced 10% tariff.

In response, Canada, Mexico, and China have all signaled retaliatory measures, further raising economic uncertainty. Trump warned that any countermeasures could prompt higher or expanded tariffs on their exports.

Market Fallout: Euro Plunges, Stocks Tumble

Global markets reacted sharply to the announcement, with major currencies and equities sliding amid heightened trade tensions.

  • The Canadian dollar fell to its lowest level in over two decades against the U.S. dollar.
  • The Mexican peso dropped to a four-year low.
  • The euro slumped over 1%, hitting its weakest level in more than two years.
  • Commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars also saw steep declines of around 2% against the U.S. dollar.

In commodities trading, crude oil prices surged 4%, initially reacting to potential supply disruptions before retreating due to the lower tariff on Canadian energy. Meanwhile, gold, silver, and copper prices declined as a strengthening U.S. dollar weighed on metal markets.

Cryptocurrencies also suffered amid broader market turmoil. Bitcoin fell from $101,000 (€99,000) over the weekend to just above $94,000 (€92,000) by early Monday morning.

Stocks Hit Hard, Auto Industry Faces Pressure

Equity markets in Asia, Europe, and North America opened lower, while U.S. and European stock futures tumbled. The hardest-hit sector was automobiles, particularly European car manufacturers with production in Mexico.

  • BMW, Volkswagen, and Mercedes-Benz saw pre-market declines amid concerns over U.S. tariffs on Mexican-made vehicles.
  • Stellantis and Renault also faced selling pressure, with investors fearing prolonged trade disruptions.

Analysts warned that risk-off sentiment would likely dominate the week.
“This week, investors are likely to go risk-off—particularly as Trump has said he is unfazed by the market reaction,” said Josh Gilbert, a market analyst at eToro Australia.

Government Bonds and Inflation Risks

Government bonds—typically seen as safe-haven assets—were in focus as investors sought stability. However, Trump’s tariffs and the potential for retaliation raised concerns about global inflation, complicating monetary policy decisions for central banks in the U.S. and the EU.

Canada, Mexico, and China Prepare Countermeasures

In response to the U.S. tariffs, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced 25% tariffs on $155 billion (€102.8 billion) worth of U.S. goods, targeting alcohol, agriculture, consumer products, and raw materials.

  • Tariffs on $30 billion (€19.9 billion) worth of goods will take effect immediately on Tuesday.
  • Analysts warn that the economic blow could push Canada into a recession, marking its first economic contraction since the pandemic.

Meanwhile, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said Mexico was preparing a “Plan B” involving tariff and non-tariff measures to protect its economy. Details are expected to be announced later Monday.

In China, the Ministry of Commerce strongly condemned the U.S. decision, calling it a “serious violation of WTO rules.”

  • Beijing plans to file a complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO) while keeping diplomatic channels open for negotiations.
  • A government spokesperson urged the U.S. to “correct its wrongful actions” and “work with China” to de-escalate tensions.

As trade tensions escalate, global markets brace for more volatility, with investors watching for further U.S. policy moves and retaliatory measures from affected nations.

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Global Job Market to See Major Shifts by 2030, Report Reveals

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A new report from the World Economic Forum (WEF) highlights significant changes in the global job market, with technological advancements, demographic shifts, and economic uncertainty reshaping employment opportunities. While 92 million jobs are expected to be displaced by 2030, an estimated 170 million new positions will emerge, resulting in a net gain of 78 million jobs.

Tech-Driven Roles Dominate Fastest-Growing Jobs

According to the WEF’s “Future of Jobs Report 2025,” jobs related to artificial intelligence (AI), financial technology, and data analytics will see the highest growth rates over the next five years.

The demand for Big Data Specialists is projected to rise by 113%, followed closely by FinTech Engineers (93%) and AI & Machine Learning Specialists (82%). Other high-growth roles include:

  • Software and Applications Developers (+57%)
  • Security Management Specialists (+53%)
  • Data Warehousing Specialists (+49%)
  • Autonomous & Electric Vehicle Specialists (+48%)
  • UI & UX Designers (+48%)
  • Internet of Things (IoT) Specialists (+42%)
  • Data Analysts & Scientists (+41%)

Clerical and Administrative Roles in Decline

Conversely, clerical jobs are among the most at-risk, as automation and AI continue to streamline business operations. By 2030, nearly one-third of postal service clerks (-34%) and bank tellers (-31%) will be displaced.

Other declining roles include:

  • Data Entry Clerks (-26%)
  • Administrative Assistants & Executive Secretaries (-20%)
  • Cashiers & Ticket Clerks (-20%)
  • Accounting & Payroll Clerks (-18%)

AI-powered automation is a primary driver of these declines, with businesses increasingly adopting digital processes to reduce reliance on manual labor.

Agriculture and Delivery Industries Experience Job Boom

Despite automation, agriculture remains a crucial source of employment. The report predicts 49 million new farming jobs by 2030, offset by 14.1 million job losses, resulting in a net increase of 34.9 million jobs—accounting for 45% of global net job growth.

Similarly, the rise of e-commerce and online food delivery services will drive demand for light truck and delivery drivers (+9.8 million jobs) and food processing workers (+4.3 million jobs).

Healthcare and Education Show Steady Growth

Unlike other sectors, nursing professionals (+3.1 million jobs) and personal care workers (+1.6 million jobs) are expected to see only job growth, with no anticipated losses.

Education remains another area of expansion, with university and higher education teachers (+1.9 million jobs) and secondary school teachers (+1.6 million jobs) ranking among the fastest-growing professions.

Skills Evolution: A Workforce in Transition

Beyond job creation and losses, the report emphasizes the changing skill landscape. By 2030, 39% of current workforce skills will be obsolete, requiring significant reskilling and upskilling efforts.

As AI and automation continue transforming industries, professionals will need to adapt to emerging technologies to remain competitive in the evolving job market.

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Minimum Wages in the EU Rise Faster Than Inflation, Boosting Real Incomes

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Brussels, Belgium – Minimum wages across the European Union (EU) and candidate countries have increased at a faster pace than inflation, leading to real wage growth for workers in most nations, according to the latest data from Eurostat. However, significant regional disparities remain in both nominal wages and purchasing power.

Minimum Wage Disparities Across Europe

As of January 2025, monthly gross minimum wages in the EU range from €551 in Bulgaria to €2,638 in Luxembourg. Among candidate countries, Moldova has the lowest minimum wage at €285.

The EU’s 22 countries with statutory minimum wages fall into three categories:

  • Group 1: Above €1,500 per month
    • Luxembourg (€2,638), Ireland (€2,282), Netherlands (€2,193), Germany (€2,161), Belgium (€2,070), and France (€1,802).
    • Notably, Germany overtook Belgium due to its latest wage increase.
  • Group 2: Between €1,000 and €1,500 per month
    • Spain (€1,323), Slovenia (€1,254), Poland (€1,091), Lithuania (€1,038), Portugal (€1,015), and Cyprus (€1,000).
    • This group has expanded significantly since July 2024, when it included only two countries.
  • Group 3: Below €1,000 per month
    • Includes 10 EU nations and all candidate countries.
    • Croatia (€970), Greece (€968), Malta (€961), Estonia (€886), Czechia (€826), Slovakia (€816), Romania (€814), Hungary (€707), and Bulgaria (€551) are in this category.
    • Among candidate nations, Turkey leads with €708, surpassing Hungary and Bulgaria.

Purchasing Power Adjustments Narrow Wage Gap

While nominal wages vary widely, the gap shrinks when adjusted for purchasing power standards (PPS), which accounts for cost-of-living differences.

  • In nominal terms, Luxembourg’s minimum wage is 4.8 times higher than Bulgaria’s.
  • In PPS terms, Germany ranks highest (€1,992), while Estonia has the lowest (€878), reducing the gap to 2.3 times.
  • Countries like Romania (17th to 9th) and Montenegro (18th to 12th) improve significantly in PPS rankings, while Ireland (2nd to 5th) and Estonia (14th to 21st) drop due to higher living costs.

Inflation vs. Wage Growth: Winners and Losers

In most countries, minimum wage increases outpaced inflation, but four nations saw real wages decline:

  • Turkey was hit hardest, with inflation at 44.4%, while its minimum wage rose by only 30%.
  • Cyprus, Albania, and Belgium also experienced slight real-term declines.

Conversely, Montenegro led real wage growth, with a 25.9% wage hike against just 2.6% inflation, significantly boosting purchasing power. Other strong performers included Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia, and Lithuania.

EU Minimum Wage Directive Drives Up Pay

The EU Minimum Wage Directive aims to set statutory minimum wages at 60% of a country’s median wage. In 2022, only three EU nations met this threshold, but rising wages are now bringing more countries in line with the directive.

“The directive may play a role in driving substantial increases to minimum wages from now on,” wrote Christine Aumayr-Pintar and Carlos Vacas-Soriano of Eurofound.

With minimum wages continuing to rise, policymakers will be watching closely to see if the trend sustains real income growth across Europe.

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