Business
Eurozone Business Activity Declines Sharply in November Amid Service Sector Slump
Business activity across the eurozone contracted sharply in November, with the services sector joining manufacturing in a downturn that signals the region’s steepest economic decline since January.
The Flash Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a key indicator of economic health, dropped to 48.1 from October’s neutral 50.0. This unexpected contraction underscores mounting economic challenges, defying market forecasts of an unchanged reading.
Services Join Manufacturing in Contraction
The services sector, long a pillar of eurozone resilience, fell into contraction for the first time in 10 months. Its PMI dropped to 49.2 from 51.6 in October, while manufacturing continued its prolonged slump, with its PMI falling to 45.2. This marked 20 consecutive months of declining production.
“The eurozone’s manufacturing sector is sinking deeper into recession, and now the services sector is starting to falter,” said Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. He attributed the struggles to ongoing political uncertainty in the bloc’s largest economies.
Declining new orders, which fell for the sixth straight month, further pressured businesses. Export demand also weakened significantly, leading some firms to cut employment slightly.
Inflation Resurfaces, Complicating ECB’s Path
Despite the slowdown in activity, inflationary pressures intensified. Input cost inflation hit a three-month high, driven by rising service-sector costs, even as manufacturing costs declined.
Output prices accelerated compared to October, creating a challenging environment for the European Central Bank (ECB).
“The eurozone is in a stagflationary environment—activity is declining, yet prices are rising,” de la Rubia explained. He noted that surging service sector prices could complicate the ECB’s monetary policy decisions, with some policymakers potentially advocating for rate cuts in December.
Germany and France Show Deeper Weakness
The eurozone’s largest economies, Germany and France, reported sharper-than-expected contractions in November.
France’s services PMI dropped to 45.7 from 49.2, marking its worst performance since January. Domestic political uncertainty continued to weigh heavily on its economy.
Germany’s services PMI fell to 49.4 from 51.6, its first contraction in nine months. Rising costs, especially wages, compounded challenges for companies.
Market Reaction: Euro, Equities, and Banks Fall
The unexpected economic contraction sent ripples through financial markets. The euro tumbled over 1% against the dollar to $1.04, its lowest since November 2022, as investors anticipated accelerated ECB rate cuts.
Eurozone bond yields also declined, with Germany’s 10-year Bund yield falling eight basis points to 2.25%. Equities followed suit, with the Euro STOXX 50 index dropping 0.7%.
Banks bore the brunt of the selloff, with shares of major lenders such as Deutsche Bank, Societe Generale, and Unicredit falling by 2.5% to 4%. Conversely, defensive sectors like utilities gained, reflecting a shift in investor preference amid economic uncertainty.
Business
ExxonMobil in Talks to Collaborate with Eni and Total on Cyprus Gas Development
ExxonMobil is exploring a potential partnership with Eni of Italy and Total of France to jointly develop significant natural gas deposits located off the southern coast of Cyprus, Cypriot Energy Minister George Papanastasiou announced on Friday.
The collaboration would center on gas fields discovered in close proximity by the companies in Cyprus’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ). According to Papanastasiou, ExxonMobil’s ongoing discussions with the Eni-Total consortium aim to expedite the monetization of these deposits.
Boost from New Exploratory Drilling
The prospect of collaboration could hinge on the success of ExxonMobil’s exploratory drilling at a site dubbed “Pegasus,” set to commence early next year. The well is located near the company’s Glaucus deposit, estimated to contain between 5 and 8 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas. Glaucus is situated within Block 10, an area jointly held by ExxonMobil and Qatar Petroleum.
Adjacent to this area, in Block 6, the Eni-Total consortium has identified the Cronos deposit, which holds an estimated 2.5 tcf of gas. Papanastasiou suggested that if the Pegasus well yields substantial reserves, infrastructure could potentially link Glaucus to Pegasus for efficient resource development.
In addition, ExxonMobil plans to drill another exploratory well, Electra, in January 2024 in Block 5, located north of Block 10 and west of Block 6. An assessment of these wells is expected by mid-2024, which could determine development strategies for the resources.
Strategic Energy Role
Cypriot officials have highlighted offshore gas as a critical component of Europe’s efforts to diversify energy sources amid the geopolitical fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine. Following talks with ExxonMobil Vice President for Global Exploration John Ardill, Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides reiterated the country’s commitment to leveraging its energy potential.
Papanastasiou stated that development options under consideration include converting the gas into liquefied natural gas (LNG) using offshore installations or transferring it to onshore facilities in Cyprus for domestic use and export.
Broader Energy Landscape
Currently, ExxonMobil and Qatar Petroleum hold exploration licenses for two blocks in Cyprus’s EEZ, while the Eni-Total consortium operates in seven blocks. A Chevron-Shell partnership controls one additional block.
President Christodoulides also revealed that Cyprus is in preliminary talks with energy firms from Persian Gulf states regarding potential exploration licenses in its offshore territory.
With new drilling operations and potential international partnerships, Cyprus is positioning itself as a significant player in the global energy market, contributing to regional and European energy security.
Business
German Producer Prices Decline for 16th Consecutive Month in October
Germany’s producer prices fell for the 16th straight month in October, marking a 1.1% decline compared to the same month last year, according to the Federal Statistical Office. The drop, in line with analysts’ expectations, was slightly smaller than the 1.4% decrease recorded in September.
The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for goods and services, was primarily affected by a sharp drop in energy prices. Energy costs fell by 5.6% in October from the previous month.
Light heating oil prices saw the steepest decline, plummeting 22.7%, while prices for mineral oil products and natural gas decreased by 12.9% and 10.1%, respectively. Fuel prices dropped 12.1%, and electricity prices were down by 7.3%.
Excluding energy, producer prices rose by 1.3% in October. Prices for capital goods increased by 2%, driven by a 1.4% rise in motor vehicles and parts, and a 2% increase in machinery costs. Durable goods prices edged up 0.9%, while consumer goods prices rose by 1.9%. Intermediate goods prices also saw a slight rise of 0.4%.
On a month-on-month basis, the PPI grew by 0.2% in October, rebounding from a 0.5% decline in September and meeting market forecasts.
Economic Recovery Hopes Amidst Slowing Activity
Despite the drop in producer prices, Germany’s economy remains under pressure due to weakened industrial output and reduced consumer spending, driven by high interest rates and rising living costs.
In its latest forecast, the European Commission projected a 0.1% contraction in Germany’s economy for 2024. “High uncertainty has been weighing on consumption and investment, while the trade outlook has worsened as global demand for industrial goods declined,” the Commission noted.
However, the report highlighted expectations for an economic recovery starting in 2025, with GDP growth projected to rise to 0.7% that year and 1.3% in 2026. The recovery is anticipated to be supported by increases in real wages, bolstering domestic demand.
Inflation in Germany is expected to moderate, averaging 2.4% in 2024 before easing to 2.1% in 2025 and further declining to 1.9% in 2026. Meanwhile, the government deficit is forecast to decrease, and the national debt ratio is expected to stabilize at around 63% of GDP.
The ongoing decline in producer prices offers some relief to businesses, but it underscores the broader challenges facing Germany’s economy as it seeks to rebound from prolonged industrial slowdowns and global trade uncertainties.
Business
Thyssenkrupp Writes Down Steel Business Value Amid Decarbonization Challenges
Thyssenkrupp has announced a further €1 billion write-down of its steel business, citing weak earnings projections and the costly demands of transitioning to greener operations. The German industrial conglomerate reported a net loss of €1.4 billion for the fiscal year, primarily driven by the asset impairment. This loss is an improvement over the €2 billion deficit reported last year.
The latest devaluation marks the second major impairment for Thyssenkrupp’s steel division in two years, following a €2.1 billion write-down in November 2023.
Strategic Decisions Ahead for Steel and Naval Units
“In respect of our main strategic issues, the current fiscal year will be a year of decisions — especially for Steel Europe and Marine Systems,” CEO Miguel Lopez stated on Tuesday.
Thyssenkrupp’s steel unit, Germany’s largest, has faced sustained challenges, including higher energy costs, competition from cheaper Asian producers, and the financial burden of decarbonization. The transition to green operations has triggered internal disputes, contributing to leadership turnover and uncertainty about the unit’s future.
The company is in discussions with Czech billionaire Daniel Křetínský, who currently owns 20% of Thyssenkrupp’s steel business. There is speculation that his stake could increase to 30%, but no confirmation has been made.
Leadership Shake-Up and Restructuring Concerns
The decarbonization effort and restructuring plans have led to significant departures. Bernhard Osburg, CEO of Thyssenkrupp’s steel unit, and Sigmar Gabriel, head of the supervisory board, resigned earlier this year, alongside other executives and board members.
Concerns about the steel unit’s potential spinoff with inadequate financial backing have also been raised. “The fear is that we will be given as little dowry as possible, so that at the end of the day the insolvency administrator will be at our door,” warned Ali Güzel, chairman of the Works Council at the Duisburg/Beeckerwerth site, in August.
Marine Systems IPO in the Pipeline
Thyssenkrupp is also seeking to offload its naval shipbuilding subsidiary, Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems. After US private equity firm Carlyle withdrew its bid last month, the company is now planning an initial public offering (IPO) for the unit.
Financial Outlook and Market Response
Despite the setbacks, the company offered some optimism in its earnings forecast. Adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) for the current fiscal year are projected to rise to between €600 million and €1 billion, up from €567 million in the previous year.
Thyssenkrupp shares saw a 6% increase in daily trading on Tuesday, signaling cautious optimism from investors amid ongoing challenges.
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