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Eurozone Business Activity Declines Sharply in November Amid Service Sector Slump

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Business activity across the eurozone contracted sharply in November, with the services sector joining manufacturing in a downturn that signals the region’s steepest economic decline since January.

The Flash Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a key indicator of economic health, dropped to 48.1 from October’s neutral 50.0. This unexpected contraction underscores mounting economic challenges, defying market forecasts of an unchanged reading.

Services Join Manufacturing in Contraction

The services sector, long a pillar of eurozone resilience, fell into contraction for the first time in 10 months. Its PMI dropped to 49.2 from 51.6 in October, while manufacturing continued its prolonged slump, with its PMI falling to 45.2. This marked 20 consecutive months of declining production.

“The eurozone’s manufacturing sector is sinking deeper into recession, and now the services sector is starting to falter,” said Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. He attributed the struggles to ongoing political uncertainty in the bloc’s largest economies.

Declining new orders, which fell for the sixth straight month, further pressured businesses. Export demand also weakened significantly, leading some firms to cut employment slightly.

Inflation Resurfaces, Complicating ECB’s Path

Despite the slowdown in activity, inflationary pressures intensified. Input cost inflation hit a three-month high, driven by rising service-sector costs, even as manufacturing costs declined.

Output prices accelerated compared to October, creating a challenging environment for the European Central Bank (ECB).

“The eurozone is in a stagflationary environment—activity is declining, yet prices are rising,” de la Rubia explained. He noted that surging service sector prices could complicate the ECB’s monetary policy decisions, with some policymakers potentially advocating for rate cuts in December.

Germany and France Show Deeper Weakness

The eurozone’s largest economies, Germany and France, reported sharper-than-expected contractions in November.

France’s services PMI dropped to 45.7 from 49.2, marking its worst performance since January. Domestic political uncertainty continued to weigh heavily on its economy.

Germany’s services PMI fell to 49.4 from 51.6, its first contraction in nine months. Rising costs, especially wages, compounded challenges for companies.

Market Reaction: Euro, Equities, and Banks Fall

The unexpected economic contraction sent ripples through financial markets. The euro tumbled over 1% against the dollar to $1.04, its lowest since November 2022, as investors anticipated accelerated ECB rate cuts.

Eurozone bond yields also declined, with Germany’s 10-year Bund yield falling eight basis points to 2.25%. Equities followed suit, with the Euro STOXX 50 index dropping 0.7%.

Banks bore the brunt of the selloff, with shares of major lenders such as Deutsche Bank, Societe Generale, and Unicredit falling by 2.5% to 4%. Conversely, defensive sectors like utilities gained, reflecting a shift in investor preference amid economic uncertainty.

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Beijing Warns of Retaliation Over US-Led Trade Deals as Tensions Escalate

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China has issued a strong warning to countries negotiating trade agreements with the United States that come at Beijing’s expense, vowing to take countermeasures to defend its economic interests. The statement follows reports that the Trump administration is pressing US trading partners to distance themselves from China during ongoing tariff negotiations.

In a statement released by the Ministry of Commerce, Beijing said it respects efforts by other countries to resolve trade disputes with Washington through “equal consultation.” However, it emphasized that China would “respond resolutely and reciprocally” to any deals that harm its national interests, adding that it will not tolerate being sidelined in global trade talks.

China accused the US of engaging in “unilateral bullying,” warning that if international trade descends into a system where the strong dominate the weak, “all countries will become victims.” The remarks came amid growing concern that secondary tariffs could be imposed on nations maintaining close trade ties with China.

Last week, reports surfaced that the US is exploring such penalties as part of its broader strategy to isolate China economically. In response, Chinese President Xi Jinping made a high-profile tour of Southeast Asia, visiting Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia. The visits were widely interpreted as a move to solidify regional partnerships and push back against growing US protectionism.

Meanwhile, the tariff battle between Washington and Beijing appears to have plateaued. The US currently imposes 145% duties on Chinese imports, while China has retaliated with 125% tariffs on US goods. Both countries have suggested they are unlikely to raise tariffs further. However, tensions have shifted to non-tariff measures.

Beijing recently introduced export restrictions on a variety of critical minerals essential to US industries. In response, President Trump signed an executive order to investigate mineral imports, calling the resources “essential for economic and national security.” Additionally, the US imposed new fees on Chinese-built vessels docking at American ports, following an investigation launched under the Biden administration.

Despite Trump’s repeated assertions that China will return to the table for a deal, there is little sign from Beijing that negotiations are moving forward.

Markets React to Rising Trade Tensions

Global markets showed clear signs of unease as tensions escalated. During early Asian trading hours on Monday, haven assets surged amid widespread risk aversion. Gold futures jumped 1.8% to a record $3,389 per ounce, while spot prices reached $3,376 per ounce. The euro also strengthened significantly, surpassing $1.50 against the US dollar for the first time since 2021. The Japanese yen and Swiss franc also gained as investors sought safe havens, while US stock futures extended their decline.

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Global Markets Brace for Economic Data and Big Tech Earnings Amid Shortened Trading Week

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Investors are preparing for a pivotal week marked by crucial economic indicators and high-profile earnings reports, even as global financial markets experience a shortened trading schedule due to Easter holidays in the United States and Europe.

Attention will center on fresh economic data from the manufacturing and services sectors, with S&P Global scheduled to release preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) for April on Wednesday. These indices, which reflect business activity based on orders, employment, and confidence, are seen as early indicators of economic trends. Readings above 50 suggest expansion, while those below indicate contraction.

Europe: Slowing Momentum Expected

In the eurozone, business activity showed signs of stabilizing in March, with the manufacturing PMI improving to 48.6—its best reading since early 2023. Germany and France both reported notable gains. However, geopolitical tensions and cautious spending continue to weigh on sentiment.

April forecasts suggest a modest pullback, with the eurozone manufacturing PMI expected to dip to 47.4. Germany and France are projected to post similar declines at 47.5 and 47.9, respectively. Meanwhile, services activity is expected to expand for a fifth consecutive month, though at a slower pace. The eurozone services PMI is forecast to ease to 50.4.

Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index, due Thursday, will provide additional insight into Europe’s largest economy. The index rose to 86.7 in March, buoyed by major fiscal reforms, but is expected to edge lower amid uncertainty over new US tariffs.

UK Outlook: Manufacturing Under Pressure

In the UK, manufacturing remains a point of concern. March’s PMI fell to 44.9—its weakest in 17 months—and April is forecast to decline further to 44.0. The services sector fared better, with March’s revised PMI at 52.5, though April is projected to moderate to 51.4 as cost-of-living pressures and geopolitical risks weigh on sentiment.

US Forecasts Mixed Ahead of Earnings Season

In the United States, March data revealed a sharp drop in manufacturing PMI to 50.2, with expectations of a return to contraction in April at 49.3. Meanwhile, services activity remains robust, though the PMI is projected to dip from 54.4 to 52.9. Business confidence has also weakened, reflecting concerns over federal policy changes and trade tensions.

All Eyes on Big Tech

Adding to the week’s significance, major US tech firms—including Tesla, Microsoft, and Alphabet—are set to release first-quarter earnings. These results could be pivotal for markets, particularly amid growing concern over the impact of newly imposed US tariffs on global supply chains.

Tesla, in particular, faces scrutiny. While revenue is expected to grow 2.6% year-on-year, earnings per share are forecast to decline, partly due to factory retooling and a slowdown in demand, exacerbated by CEO Elon Musk’s recent political interventions.

As market participants digest a busy week of data and earnings, uncertainty surrounding trade policies and global economic conditions is expected to keep volatility elevated.

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DHL Express to Suspend High-Value Consumer Shipments to U.S. Amid Regulatory Changes

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DHL Express, the international courier division of Germany’s Deutsche Post, announced it will temporarily suspend global business-to-consumer (B2C) shipments valued over $800 to individuals in the United States starting April 21. The move comes in response to new U.S. customs regulations that have extended clearance times for incoming goods.

According to a notice published on the company’s website, the suspension affects only shipments above the $800 threshold sent to private individuals. Business-to-business (B2B) shipments will continue but may experience delays due to the new processing requirements. Shipments under $800, whether destined for individuals or businesses, remain unaffected.

The change follows an April 5 update to U.S. customs rules, which now require formal entry processing for all imports valued over $800. Previously, this threshold stood at $2,500. DHL cited the revised policy as the reason for the temporary suspension, as the additional paperwork and procedural requirements have significantly slowed customs clearance.

“This is a temporary measure,” the company stated, without specifying when services might resume.

While the announcement was undated, online metadata indicates it was compiled on Saturday. The update marks a significant shift for international logistics companies that rely on streamlined processes to handle high-volume e-commerce shipments.

DHL’s decision comes amid rising trade tensions and shifting import policies in the United States, particularly concerning packages from China and Hong Kong. Last week, Hongkong Post suspended sea mail services to the U.S., accusing Washington of “bullying” after the United States revoked duty-free trade provisions for packages from the region.

In response to earlier inquiries from Reuters, DHL emphasized its commitment to compliance, saying it would continue processing shipments from Hong Kong “in accordance with the applicable customs rules and regulations.” The company also said it is working with customers to help them adapt to the upcoming changes, particularly those set to take effect on May 2.

Industry analysts say the new U.S. customs policy could have a wide-reaching impact on cross-border e-commerce, as formal entry requirements typically involve additional documentation, processing fees, and longer delivery times. Retailers and logistics firms alike are now reassessing their operations to minimize disruption for customers.

DHL has not provided a specific date for when high-value B2C shipments to the U.S. will resume but indicated that the pause is a precautionary response to the evolving regulatory environment.

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