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Eurozone Business Activity Declines Sharply in November Amid Service Sector Slump

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Business activity across the eurozone contracted sharply in November, with the services sector joining manufacturing in a downturn that signals the region’s steepest economic decline since January.

The Flash Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a key indicator of economic health, dropped to 48.1 from October’s neutral 50.0. This unexpected contraction underscores mounting economic challenges, defying market forecasts of an unchanged reading.

Services Join Manufacturing in Contraction

The services sector, long a pillar of eurozone resilience, fell into contraction for the first time in 10 months. Its PMI dropped to 49.2 from 51.6 in October, while manufacturing continued its prolonged slump, with its PMI falling to 45.2. This marked 20 consecutive months of declining production.

“The eurozone’s manufacturing sector is sinking deeper into recession, and now the services sector is starting to falter,” said Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. He attributed the struggles to ongoing political uncertainty in the bloc’s largest economies.

Declining new orders, which fell for the sixth straight month, further pressured businesses. Export demand also weakened significantly, leading some firms to cut employment slightly.

Inflation Resurfaces, Complicating ECB’s Path

Despite the slowdown in activity, inflationary pressures intensified. Input cost inflation hit a three-month high, driven by rising service-sector costs, even as manufacturing costs declined.

Output prices accelerated compared to October, creating a challenging environment for the European Central Bank (ECB).

“The eurozone is in a stagflationary environment—activity is declining, yet prices are rising,” de la Rubia explained. He noted that surging service sector prices could complicate the ECB’s monetary policy decisions, with some policymakers potentially advocating for rate cuts in December.

Germany and France Show Deeper Weakness

The eurozone’s largest economies, Germany and France, reported sharper-than-expected contractions in November.

France’s services PMI dropped to 45.7 from 49.2, marking its worst performance since January. Domestic political uncertainty continued to weigh heavily on its economy.

Germany’s services PMI fell to 49.4 from 51.6, its first contraction in nine months. Rising costs, especially wages, compounded challenges for companies.

Market Reaction: Euro, Equities, and Banks Fall

The unexpected economic contraction sent ripples through financial markets. The euro tumbled over 1% against the dollar to $1.04, its lowest since November 2022, as investors anticipated accelerated ECB rate cuts.

Eurozone bond yields also declined, with Germany’s 10-year Bund yield falling eight basis points to 2.25%. Equities followed suit, with the Euro STOXX 50 index dropping 0.7%.

Banks bore the brunt of the selloff, with shares of major lenders such as Deutsche Bank, Societe Generale, and Unicredit falling by 2.5% to 4%. Conversely, defensive sectors like utilities gained, reflecting a shift in investor preference amid economic uncertainty.

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Sixt Shares Dip After Mixed Q1 Results Despite Revenue Growth Abroad

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Shares in German car rental and mobility firm Sixt fell nearly 4% by midday Tuesday following the release of a mixed first-quarter earnings report that highlighted stagnating revenue in its home market.

The company reported total revenue of €858.1 million for the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase. While overall figures showed improvement, revenue in Germany remained flat at €243.3 million, raising concerns among investors. In contrast, the company’s performance in the broader European market was stronger, with revenue climbing 13.8% to €296.5 million compared to the same period last year.

Despite narrowing losses, Sixt remains in the red. Earnings before taxes (EBT) stood at -€17.6 million, an improvement from the -€27.5 million reported in the first quarter of 2024. Net income after taxes also showed progress, coming in at -€12.6 million, compared to -€23.1 million a year earlier.

In its earnings statement, the company reaffirmed its long-term strategy focused on international growth and financial turnaround. “Sixt is maintaining its expansion course for all regional segments, with profitable growth remaining the top priority,” the report stated.

Looking ahead, the company remains optimistic about demand for its mobility services throughout the year. Sixt confirmed its full-year guidance for 2025, projecting revenue growth between 5% and 10% and targeting a significantly improved EBT margin of around 10%, compared to last year.

Sixt’s results come as the company continues to navigate a challenging economic environment, marked by shifting travel patterns and inflationary pressures in its core markets. Analysts suggest that while the international momentum is encouraging, the flat performance in Germany may continue to weigh on investor sentiment if not addressed in the coming quarters.

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Saudi Aramco Profits Dip Amid Falling Oil Prices as Kingdom Commits Massive US Investments

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Saudi Arabia’s oil giant Aramco reported a 4.6% drop in first-quarter profits on Sunday, amid declining global oil prices and growing financial pressure to meet the kingdom’s ambitious development goals, including massive investments in the United States.

Aramco, the world’s largest oil producer, posted a net income of $26 billion (€23.4 billion) for the first quarter of 2025, down from $27.2 billion (€24.5 billion) during the same period last year. Quarterly revenues came in at $108.1 billion (€97.4 billion), slightly up from $107.2 billion (€96.5 billion) a year earlier, according to a filing on the Tadawul stock exchange in Riyadh.

The dip in earnings comes as global energy markets remain volatile. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, recently traded at just over $63 (€56.7) a barrel—down from peaks of over $80 (€72) last year. Aramco’s stock, which once traded at highs near $8 (€7.2), has also slipped in recent months, closing Sunday at just over $6 (€5.4) per share.

Aramco CEO Amin H. Nasser acknowledged the challenges in a statement, saying “global trade dynamics affected energy markets in the first quarter of 2025, with economic uncertainty impacting oil prices.”

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has pledged to invest $600 billion (€540.2 billion) in the United States during President Donald Trump’s second term. Trump, expected to arrive in Riyadh on Tuesday for his first official overseas trip since returning to office, has publicly called for that figure to reach $1 trillion (€900 billion).

The investment pledge coincides with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s ambitious domestic agenda. Central to those plans is Neom—a $500 billion (€450.1 billion) futuristic megacity being developed along the Red Sea—and preparations for hosting the 2034 FIFA World Cup, which will require tens of billions of dollars in infrastructure spending.

To help fund these initiatives, Saudi Arabia may have to dip into its sovereign reserves or increase borrowing, especially as oil revenues come under pressure. The recent decision by the OPEC+ alliance to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day next month is expected to complicate efforts to stabilize prices.

Aramco remains one of the world’s most valuable companies, with a market capitalization exceeding $1.6 trillion (€1.4 trillion), trailing only a handful of U.S. tech giants. While a portion of its shares trade publicly, the majority is held by the Saudi government, providing a crucial financial pillar for state-led development and the royal family’s wealth.

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Eastern Europe Leads in Real Wage Growth in 2024, Turkey Tops the Chart

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Real wages rose sharply across much of Europe in 2024, with Eastern European nations recording the strongest growth, according to the latest OECD Taxing Wages 2025 report and Eurostat data. Out of 32 European countries analyzed, only four experienced a drop in real wages after adjusting for inflation.

Turkey posted the most significant gains, with nominal gross wages surging by 82.9% year-on-year—driven largely by the country’s sky-high inflation rate of 58.3%. Despite the inflation, Turkey recorded the highest real wage growth in Europe at 15.5%. However, the figure has drawn scrutiny, with opposition figures and former officials from the Turkish Statistical Institute questioning the accuracy of official inflation data.

Romania and Bulgaria followed Turkey in the real wage growth rankings. Romania saw a 20.9% increase in nominal wages, translating to a 14.3% real wage gain thanks to a comparatively low inflation rate of 5.8%. Bulgaria reported a 9.2% rise in real wages, with nominal wages up 12% and inflation held to 2.6%.

Eight European countries reported real wage growth above 7%. Besides Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria, this group includes Malta (9%), Hungary (8.9%), Latvia (8.4%), Poland (7.8%), and Lithuania (7.2%).

In Southern Europe, wage growth was more modest but still positive. Italy led the region with a 2.7% increase in real wages, followed by Cyprus (2.1%), Spain (1.9%), and Greece (1.7%).

Among Europe’s five largest economies, Italy also recorded the highest real wage growth. Germany followed at 2.2%, ahead of Spain (1.9%), the UK (1.6%), and France, which reported the lowest increase at just 0.7%.

Only four countries saw real wage declines in 2024: Belgium (-1%), Finland (-0.9%), Iceland (-0.7%), and Luxembourg (-0.4%). Finland was the sole country where nominal wages slightly declined, falling by €14 compared to the previous year. However, with inflation under 1%, the resulting drop in real wages was relatively small.

The figures cover gross wages before taxes and social contributions and reflect the average earnings of a single worker without children. While 2024 brought a strong rebound in wage growth for many European workers after years of stagnation, wide regional disparities persist—underscoring the uneven impact of inflation and wage policy across the continent.

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