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Euro’s December Rally Faces Headwinds Amid Political and Economic Challenges

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December has historically been a strong month for the euro, with the currency averaging gains of 1.6% against the US dollar over the past 24 years. This trend has been underpinned by seasonal US dollar weakness, driven largely by year-end tax practices of American corporations. However, political instability in Europe, renewed US tariff threats, and global geopolitical tensions could threaten this established pattern in 2024.

The euro’s December strength is remarkable among global currencies, with a 71% likelihood of ending the month in positive territory. The euro has consistently outperformed in December over the past seven years, with gains attributed more to US economic factors than eurozone-specific dynamics. US corporations traditionally reduce dollar holdings at year-end, shifting funds overseas to manage tax liabilities, which weakens the dollar and boosts the euro.

In contrast, the US Dollar Index typically rebounds in January, gaining an average of 0.88% as funds return stateside. This seasonal fluctuation highlights December as a unique opportunity for currencies like the euro to shine.

Currency Trends Beyond the Euro

The seasonal pattern extends to other currencies, with many also benefiting from December’s dollar softness. The British pound and Australian dollar typically gain 0.4% on average, while the Japanese yen strengthens by 0.3%. Lesser-known European currencies, such as the Hungarian forint, Polish zloty, and Czech koruna, often perform well, with the koruna leading at an average December gain of 1.4%.

Risks Clouding 2024’s December Performance

Despite this favorable historical backdrop, the euro and other currencies face heightened challenges this December. In the US, potential policy uncertainty, including the threat of sudden tariff announcements, could disrupt the typical flow of corporate funds abroad. A similar dynamic was seen in 2016, when unexpected political developments led to a 0.67% drop for the euro in December.

On the European front, domestic political instability adds further pressure. Germany, the eurozone’s largest economy, is navigating a fragmented political environment, while France grapples with escalating labor strikes and social unrest. These uncertainties risk dampening investor confidence in the eurozone, weakening demand for the single currency.

Global geopolitical tensions also weigh heavily on the euro’s outlook. The ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, Russia-Ukraine war, and concerns about China’s economic recovery are likely to bolster the US dollar’s safe-haven appeal, countering its usual December weakness.

With these combined risks, the euro’s December rally, a longstanding tradition in global currency markets, faces one of its most uncertain years in 2024. Whether the euro can overcome these obstacles remains to be seen as markets brace for a volatile month ahead.

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World’s Largest EV Manufacturer Recalls Over 375,000 Vehicles for Power Steering Issue

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The world’s largest electric vehicle manufacturer is recalling more than 375,000 vehicles due to a power steering issue that could impact driver control, according to the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA).

The recall affects certain 2023 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, with the NHTSA reporting that the printed circuit board responsible for electronic power steering assist may become overstressed. This could result in a loss of power steering assistance when the vehicle stops and then accelerates again.

A loss of power steering assistance requires drivers to exert greater effort to steer the vehicle, particularly at low speeds, increasing the risk of accidents.

The EV manufacturer has not disclosed the number of incidents linked to the issue but stated that it is working to address the problem promptly. Owners of affected vehicles will be notified and offered free repairs, including replacement of the faulty circuit board if necessary.

The NHTSA advises vehicle owners to monitor their dashboard warning lights and seek service immediately if they notice any changes in steering performance. The agency is continuing to monitor the situation to ensure compliance and safety.

This recall comes as the electric vehicle industry faces heightened scrutiny over software and hardware reliability. Despite the setback, industry analysts believe the company’s proactive recall could help maintain customer trust and highlight its commitment to safety and product quality.

 

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Alibaba Reports Fastest Revenue Growth in Over a Year Amid AI Boom

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Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding has reported its fastest revenue growth in more than a year, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence and cloud computing. The company’s revenue for the quarter ending in December rose 8% to 280.2 billion yuan (€36.65 billion) compared to the previous year, surpassing analysts’ expectations. Net income surged to 48.9 billion yuan (€6.41 billion), boosting its New York-traded stock by over 12% following the earnings announcement.

Alibaba CEO Eddie Wu highlighted the company’s commitment to AI, stating during an earnings call that Alibaba plans to “aggressively invest” in AI and cloud infrastructure over the next three years, with planned spending expected to exceed its total investments of the past decade. Wu emphasized that artificial general intelligence (AGI), which aims to match or surpass human intelligence, is Alibaba’s primary focus, describing the opportunity as a “once-in-several-decades” transformation for the industry.

The company has already integrated AI into its cloud products, resulting in a 13% revenue growth for its cloud division—the fastest pace in two years. Alibaba’s international commerce unit, including platforms like AliExpress and Lazada, saw a 32% increase in revenue, driven by robust cross-border business performance.

Alibaba’s AI strategy comes amid growing competition between the U.S. and China in the AI sector. In January, Alibaba introduced its latest Qwen AI models, which performed well in industry benchmark tests, positioning the company among China’s leading AI innovators. Additionally, Alibaba is collaborating with Apple to integrate its AI technology into Chinese iPhones.

The company’s resurgence follows a challenging period marked by regulatory crackdowns in China’s technology sector. In 2020, authorities halted the IPO of Alibaba’s financial affiliate, Ant Group, and imposed a record $2.8 billion (€2.67 billion) fine for anti-monopoly violations. However, recent signs suggest a more supportive stance from Beijing. Chinese President Xi Jinping recently met with prominent entrepreneurs, including Alibaba cofounder Jack Ma, signaling renewed government backing for the tech industry.

Amid these developments, Alibaba’s stock has surged by over 60% this year, with U.S.-listed shares rising 8.5% to $136.58 (€130.41) during morning trading. With its focus on AI and cloud computing, Alibaba is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for advanced technology in China and beyond.

 

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Airbus Reports Strong Orders and Steady Growth Despite Supply Chain Challenges

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European aircraft manufacturer Airbus has reported solid financial results for 2024, with strong order intake and increased deliveries, further extending its lead over struggling competitor Boeing.

In its annual earnings update on Thursday, Airbus revealed that revenues rose to €69.23 billion, up from €65.45 billion in the previous year. However, adjusted earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) dropped 8% to €5.35 billion, compared to €5.84 billion in 2023. The decline was attributed to restructuring costs in the company’s space division.

Aviation and tourism expert Anita Mendiratta praised Airbus’ performance, stating that the results highlight the company’s focus on fundamentals. “The strong order intake across all divisions signifies sustained market confidence—critical in 2024, the first full year since the pandemic when trade not only recovered but surged,” she said.

Aircraft Deliveries and Orders

Airbus delivered 766 commercial aircraft in 2024, an increase from 735 in 2023, thanks to a strong year-end push. Gross commercial aircraft orders reached 878, with net orders totaling 826 after cancellations.

Looking ahead, Airbus has set a delivery target of 820 commercial aircraft for 2025—a figure lower than its record 863 deliveries in 2019. While some analysts view this target as conservative, Matt Dorset, equity analyst at Quilter Cheviot, noted that it reflects ongoing supply chain issues. “The company will want to avoid another cut to guidance, as occurred in 2024,” Dorset explained.

Airbus lowered its delivery targets in June 2023 due to supply chain disruptions involving engines, aerostructures, and cabin equipment, as well as additional costs in its space systems division. The company continues to face challenges, particularly with Spirit AeroSystems, which is affecting the production of the A350 and A220 models.

Financial Outlook and Dividends

For 2025, Airbus forecasts adjusted EBIT of approximately €7 billion and free cash flow before customer financing of around €4.5 billion. These projections do not account for potential tariffs that could be imposed by a future Donald Trump administration in the United States.

Despite ongoing challenges, Airbus announced an increased dividend of €2 per share for 2024, up from €1.80 the previous year. Additionally, the company proposed a special dividend of €1 per share, with a payment date set for April 24, 2025.

Airbus Extends Lead Over Boeing

Airbus’ stable financial performance contrasts sharply with the difficulties faced by Boeing, which reported a loss of $11.8 billion (€11.3 billion) in 2024—its worst result since 2020. Boeing’s setbacks include a series of safety incidents, strikes, and challenges within its defense programs, further solidifying Airbus’ position as the world’s leading aircraft manufacturer.

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