French businesses are grappling with heightened uncertainty, according to the latest economic survey from the Bank of France, which reported a slight uptick in activity for November. The findings highlight the challenges facing Europe’s second-largest economy amid a political crisis and ongoing economic pressures.

The survey, conducted before the recent collapse of Michel Barnier’s government, revealed significant unease across sectors. Business uncertainty in the industrial and construction sectors reached levels not seen since the energy crisis of 2022. The political turmoil, triggered by a no-confidence vote, has left France without a functioning government or a valid budget for 2025. President Emmanuel Macron is now tasked with appointing a new Prime Minister to form a government and address the political vacuum.

The Bank of France’s report noted that uncertainty remains “relatively high in all sectors,” with companies citing the domestic political situation, tax debates, and global economic conditions as major concerns.

Despite these challenges, the bank anticipates slight growth in underlying economic activity for the final quarter of the year, excluding the effects of the Paris Olympic and Paralympic Games. “We estimate that the country’s underlying activity would maintain its slightly positive growth trend in the fourth quarter,” the report stated.

This growth, pegged at approximately 0.2% of GDP, is expected to be counteracted by the waning effects of the Games, which the bank estimates will reduce GDP by 0.2%. As a result, the Bank of France projects no net growth for the quarter, marking a slowdown from the 0.4% growth recorded in the previous quarter, which was largely driven by Olympic-related activity.

The economic outlook remains clouded by political instability and broader global challenges. Businesses are increasingly cautious as they navigate the uncertain landscape, with some delaying investments or scaling back expansion plans.

Observers note that the political impasse could exacerbate existing economic pressures, particularly as debates over tax reforms and budgetary measures continue to weigh on business confidence.

The coming weeks will be critical as President Macron moves to stabilize the government and address the budgetary void. The resolution of these political challenges could play a key role in shaping France’s economic trajectory heading into 2025.

For now, the combination of political uncertainty, slowing growth, and global headwinds underscores the fragile state of the French economy, leaving businesses and policymakers bracing for potential challenges ahead.

Nvidia’s shares fell 2.6% on Monday following China’s announcement of an antitrust investigation into the tech giant, intensifying trade tensions between the United States and China.

The State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) in China confirmed the launch of a probe into Nvidia over its 2020 acquisition of Mellanox Technologies Ltd, an Israeli networking technology firm. The $7 billion deal, aimed at enhancing Nvidia’s data center capabilities, had been conditionally approved by Beijing. SAMR alleges Nvidia violated commitments tied to the acquisition, including obligations to share information about Mellanox’s new products with competitors within 90 days before release.

The probe follows the Biden administration’s recent imposition of additional export restrictions aimed at curbing China’s development of advanced AI technologies. These measures, announced on December 2, target 140 Chinese companies producing critical chips essential to the country’s self-reliant tech industry. Washington cited national security concerns for the move, while Beijing condemned it as “unilateral bullying,” pledging to defend its interests.

Trade War Escalates
In retaliation to the U.S. restrictions, China imposed its own export bans on key materials such as gallium, germanium, antimony, and superhard materials—essential components in semiconductor manufacturing. The ban is expected to disrupt U.S. supply chains in the tech sector.

The Nvidia investigation is seen as part of a broader escalation in the ongoing trade war. Analysts suggest this could negatively impact Nvidia’s market valuation, particularly as the company faces challenges in balancing U.S. export controls with its significant reliance on the Chinese market.

Implications for Nvidia and the Semiconductor Sector
Despite the headwinds, Nvidia remains the world’s second-most valuable company, with a market capitalization of $3.4 trillion. Its shares have surged 188% year-to-date, buoyed by record data center sales that rose 112% in the third quarter compared to the previous year. However, Nvidia has acknowledged capacity constraints, a factor contributing to its recent share price dip.

China accounted for approximately 12% of Nvidia’s total revenue in the latest quarter, a significant increase from earlier in the year. The company has adapted its chip designs to comply with U.S. regulations while meeting Chinese market demands.

The European semiconductor sector also felt the ripple effects of the probe, with shares of chip equipment maker ASML slipping 0.38%.

As the U.S.-China tech trade war continues, Nvidia’s position highlights the precarious balance global companies must navigate in an increasingly polarized economic landscape. The outcome of the antitrust investigation could set a precedent for other firms operating under similar cross-border pressures.