Business
ECB Warns of Rising Trade Barriers and Policy Uncertainty Impacting Eurozone Growth
The European Central Bank (ECB) has raised concerns over rising trade frictions, regulatory barriers, and global demand slowdown, warning that these factors could weigh on eurozone growth. In its latest Economic Bulletin, released on Thursday, the ECB also highlighted uncertainty over U.S. trade policy as a key risk to economic stability.
Trade Risks and U.S. Policy Shifts
The ECB reported that global trade momentum weakened at the end of 2024, with growth moderating from 1.5% in previous quarters to 0.7% in the final quarter of the year and early 2025. While strong U.S. imports temporarily supported European exports, the ECB noted that policy uncertainty under the new U.S. administration might be prompting companies to frontload imports in anticipation of potential tariffs or trade restrictions.
“Greater friction in global trade could weigh on euro area growth by dampening exports and weakening the global economy,” the ECB stated.
The bulletin pointed to weak manufacturing export orders in December 2024, signaling continued fragility in the sector. While early 2025 may still benefit from businesses rushing orders ahead of possible trade restrictions, the ECB warned that new tariffs and policy shifts could create headwinds later in the year.
Eurozone Growth Struggles Amid Weak Business Confidence
Despite sustained export activity, the eurozone economy remains sluggish, with GDP growth of just 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2024. The services sector provided some support, but industrial production and business investment remained weak.
Business and consumer confidence levels have also declined, raising concerns about slower-than-expected recovery. The ECB noted that geopolitical risks, high borrowing costs, and trade uncertainty could delay stronger economic momentum.
“Lower confidence could prevent consumption and investment from recovering as fast as expected,” the ECB warned.
Inflation Easing, But No Commitment to Rate Cuts
Inflation in the euro area has moderated but remains above the ECB’s 2% target. In January 2025, headline inflation stood at 2.8%, while core inflation—which excludes energy and food—was at 2.9%. The ECB pointed to strong wage growth as a major contributor to persistent services inflation, indicating that underlying price pressures have not fully subsided.
Despite progress, the Governing Council reaffirmed its data-dependent approach, stating that there is no pre-commitment to rate cuts. Decisions on monetary policy will continue to be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, guided by economic data.
Long-Term Competitiveness Challenges
Beyond immediate risks, the ECB bulletin emphasized structural challenges affecting Europe’s economic competitiveness. The report cited findings from former ECB President Mario Draghi and ex-Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta, who both called for urgent reforms to improve the region’s economic resilience.
The ECB pointed out that European firms face greater regulatory burdens and financial constraints compared to their U.S. counterparts. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that overall trade costs within Europe are equivalent to an ad valorem tariff of 44% for manufacturing, compared to just 15% in the U.S.
The bulletin endorsed the European Commission’s Competitiveness Compass, urging policymakers to take concrete steps to boost investment, streamline regulations, and enhance the Single Market. It also highlighted that Europe’s young, high-growth firms are scaling up slower than in the U.S., due in part to fragmented financial and regulatory frameworks.
Outlook
As the eurozone navigates trade tensions, economic uncertainty, and inflation concerns, the ECB’s latest bulletin reinforces the need for vigilance in policymaking. With monetary easing still uncertain and global trade dynamics shifting, Europe’s ability to adapt will be crucial in maintaining economic stability and growth in 2025.
Business
UK and US Poised to Announce New Trade Deal Amid Tariff Tensions

The United Kingdom and the United States are expected to announce a new trade agreement later today, following comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that a deal with a “highly respected” country was imminent. Downing Street confirmed Thursday morning that a formal statement would be issued, highlighting deepening economic ties between the two transatlantic allies.
According to a spokesperson for Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the pending agreement reflects Britain’s commitment to acting in the national interest. “The prime minister will always act in Britain’s national interest – for workers, for business, for families,” the spokesperson said. “The United States is an indispensable ally for both our economic and national security. Talks on a deal between our countries have been continuing at pace and the prime minister will update later today.”
The anticipated deal could mark the first formal trade agreement reached by the U.S. since “Liberation Day” in April, when President Trump introduced a new wave of tariffs targeting foreign imports. The UK emerged relatively unscathed from those tariffs, with its exports facing a 10% baseline duty—far less than the 20% rate imposed on EU goods or the 30%-plus levies on imports from several Asian countries.
However, key British exports such as cars and steel are still subject to a 25% tariff under current U.S. rules. Trade experts anticipate that the forthcoming agreement will focus on easing restrictions in these sectors, though it is unlikely to extend to a full-scale free trade arrangement at this stage.
British negotiators have been in Washington this week in a final push to secure more favorable terms, amid growing concern over potential future levies. President Trump’s recent proposal to tax foreign films has also raised alarms in the UK, where the film industry is a major source of export revenue.
The UK is also broadening its global trade strategy. On Tuesday, Prime Minister Starmer announced a long-awaited trade deal with India, easing the movement of professionals and reducing tariffs on British gin and whisky. Meanwhile, preparations are underway for a UK-EU summit on May 19, where discussions are expected to include a post-Brexit youth mobility agreement.
The U.S., for its part, is exploring deals with several nations including Japan, Israel, and India, though negotiations with China remain strained. President Trump has signaled that he will not lower tariffs on Chinese imports—currently at 145%—without significant concessions from Beijing.
As transatlantic talks reach their conclusion, today’s announcement could mark a significant milestone in reshaping post-Brexit trade relations between London and Washington.
Business
Rheinmetall Reports Soaring Q1 Sales Amid Rising European Defence Demand

Rheinmetall, Germany’s largest ammunition and arms manufacturer, reported a sharp rise in sales for the first quarter of 2025, as European defence spending continues to surge in response to shifting geopolitical dynamics. The company posted a 46% year-on-year increase in revenue, reaching €2.3 billion, driven by heightened demand for military systems and weapons.
The standout performance came from Rheinmetall’s defence segment, which grew by 73% to €1.8 billion in sales, accounting for the majority of the company’s revenue. Foreign markets contributed 70% of total sales, underlining the global reach of the firm’s growing defence footprint. The spike in demand follows a broader trend across Europe, where defence budgets are expanding in response to heightened security concerns, particularly following the recent suspension of U.S. military aid to Ukraine.
Shares in Rheinmetall have surged by 170% since the start of the year, with an additional 1.5% gain following the earnings announcement. Germany’s landmark debt reform, which prioritizes defence and infrastructure spending, has also played a role in boosting investor confidence across the defence sector.
Looking ahead, Rheinmetall maintained its forecast for 2025, projecting annual sales growth of 25% to 30%. The company expects an operating margin of 15.5%, up from 15.2% in 2024, and hinted at the possibility of further revisions to guidance as demand conditions continue to improve.
Chairman of the Executive Board Armin Papperger described the current period as a turning point for the company and for European defence at large. “Rheinmetall is needed—customers are buying entire factories from us today,” he said. “Europe must prepare itself for a new era… Rheinmetall stands firmly by its responsibility in this epochal break.”
Papperger emphasized the company’s global expansion efforts, noting projects in the U.S., UK, Italy, and Ukraine, as well as new plant constructions and strategic acquisitions. “We are experiencing growth like never before,” he added.
Rheinmetall’s first-quarter profit rose by 70%, with earnings per share at €1.92. Operating income climbed 49% to €199 million, while defence profits nearly doubled to €206 million. A key performance indicator—referred to as “Rheinmetall Nomination,” which includes incoming orders and framework agreements—surged 181% year-on-year to €11 billion, with a significant share originating from Germany’s special military fund.
The company’s order backlog hit a record €63 billion by the end of the quarter, driven by large-scale contracts in various defence categories. Vehicle systems revenue jumped 93% to €952 million, and weapons and ammunition sales reached an all-time high of €599 million. Electronic solutions saw nominations soar to €10 billion, while the power systems segment fell 6.7% amid automotive sector headwinds.
Business
Novo Nordisk Shares Rise Despite 2025 Outlook Downgrade Amid Weight-Loss Drug Market Pressures

Shares in Novo Nordisk surged on Wednesday after the Danish pharmaceutical giant posted stronger-than-expected first-quarter earnings, even as it lowered its growth outlook for 2025 due to mounting competition in the weight-loss drug market.
The company, best known for its diabetes and obesity treatments, reported a 20% year-on-year rise in net profit to 38.8 billion Danish kroner (€5.2 billion), with net sales up 18% to 78.1 billion kroner (€10.5 billion). Both figures exceeded analyst expectations, driven by robust demand for obesity and diabetes medications.
Despite the upbeat results, Novo Nordisk cut its full-year guidance. The firm now expects 2025 sales growth of 13–21%, down from its earlier projection, and operating profit growth between 16–24% at constant exchange rates—both lowered by several percentage points.
“We have reduced our full-year outlook due to lower-than-planned branded GLP-1 penetration, which is impacted by the rapid expansion of compounding in the US,” CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen said in a statement. “We are actively focused on preventing unlawful and unsafe compounding and on efforts to expand patient access to our GLP-1 treatments.”
Still, shares rose 4.4% at the opening of European trading, though the stock remains down 26% since the start of the year. In contrast, main U.S. competitor Eli Lilly has seen a more stable stock performance in 2025.
A key pressure point for Novo Nordisk is the U.S. market, where demand for GLP-1-based weight-loss treatments like Wegovy has outpaced supply. Under FDA policy, compounding pharmacies were permitted to produce alternative versions of drugs in short supply, allowing smaller rivals to offer cheaper options. Although the FDA declared shortages over earlier this year, it granted a grace period until May 22 for compounded versions to remain in circulation.
In response, Novo Nordisk slashed Wegovy’s price by more than half on its online platform, NovoCare, mirroring similar price cuts by Eli Lilly.
In its outlook, Novo Nordisk highlighted the continued global rollout of Wegovy, noting there are an estimated one billion people living with obesity worldwide, yet only a fraction are receiving treatment. CFO Karsten Munk Knudsen said he expects Wegovy sales to pick up further in the third quarter.
Meanwhile, the company announced the completion of its REDEFINE 2 trial for its next-generation drug, CagriSema, which showed a 15.7% weight reduction. While the results fell short of the 25% reduction some had hoped for, Novo Nordisk aims to file for regulatory approval early next year.
The company also said it has filed for U.S. approval of a new oral formulation of semaglutide, which could become the first oral GLP-1 drug for obesity treatment.
Despite market headwinds, Novo Nordisk remains optimistic about future growth in a highly competitive but fast-expanding global obesity market.
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