Business
EBRD Economies Show Resilience Amid Global Trade Disruptions
As U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies continue to reshape global commerce, countries within the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) region are expected to experience only limited direct effects. However, the ripple effects of slowing global growth and shifting investment patterns could pose challenges in the years ahead, according to the EBRD’s latest Regional Economic Prospects report.
Global Growth Projections Lowered
The EBRD has revised its global growth projections for 2025 downward, reducing forecasts from 3.5% to 3.2%, citing ongoing uncertainty in international trade policies. The U.S. government’s recent threats to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, alongside doubling levies on Chinese goods to 20%, have contributed to an uncertain trade environment that could impact investment and production worldwide.
“Uncertainty surrounding trade regulations can have a significant detrimental effect on trade, investment, and production,” the EBRD report states. Additionally, the economic impact of U.S. tariffs will depend on whether they are applied universally or selectively.
Limited Direct Impact, But Indirect Consequences Loom
While Eastern Europe and Central Asia have minimal direct exposure to U.S. trade restrictions, EBRD Chief Economist Beata Javorcik highlighted the indirect effects that could weigh on economic performance.
“The direct effect of possible U.S. tariffs is going to be limited simply because relatively few countries in Eastern Europe or Central Asia export significant quantities to the U.S.,” Javorcik explained. “What’s going to matter more is the indirect effect.”
Slower economic growth in advanced European economies will have a spillover impact on their trading partners in EBRD regions. Additionally, U.S. policies may affect emerging markets through two key channels:
- Cuts to U.S. financial aid – Countries such as Ukraine, Lebanon, Moldova, and Mongolia could feel the effects of reduced U.S. support.
- Higher borrowing costs – With U.S. interest rates expected to remain high, borrowing costs on international markets will increase, particularly for countries with high external debt in foreign currencies.
Foreign Investment Flows Shift to Connector Economies
The combination of U.S.-led trade tensions and the ongoing war in Ukraine is reshaping foreign direct investment (FDI) patterns. Investment flows between Europe and Russia and between the West and China have declined significantly, leading to increased FDI in “connector economies”—countries that maintain strong ties with both Western and Eastern blocs.
“We are seeing a reconfiguration of global FDI flows,” said Javorcik. “There’s been a sharp decline in inflows to China and Germany, while investment in India has increased. What’s particularly striking is the surge in FDI to the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan—countries that pursue multi-vector geopolitical policies.”
Central Asia Emerges as a Key Beneficiary
Countries in Central Asia and the Caucasus have experienced a significant rise in exports due to their role in intermediated trade. Compared to 2021, exports from Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Georgia, and Armenia to the European Union have surged by 90% in 2024. However, total exports declined by 5% compared to 2023, indicating a slowdown in trade growth.
Javorcik pointed out that Central Asia is now the fastest-growing region among EBRD economies, expanding at twice the speed of other regions. This growth has been driven by declining inflation, rising real wages, and increased consumer spending.
“While real wages in EU-EBRD economies remain 9% below pre-Covid levels, wages in Central Asia and the Caucasus have significantly surpassed pre-pandemic levels, boosting purchasing power and economic activity,” Javorcik added.
EBRD Expands Investments in Emerging Markets
The shifting global investment landscape has led to record EBRD commitments in Central Asia. In 2024, the bank invested €2.26 billion across 121 projects in six regional economies, signaling a strategic focus on emerging markets.
Outlook: Navigating Uncertainty in Global Trade
As geopolitical tensions, evolving trade relationships, and U.S. policies continue to shape the global economy, the resilience of EBRD nations will depend on their ability to adapt to disruptions and attract diversified investments. While connector economies in Central Asia and the Middle East are benefiting from investment shifts, the long-term impact of global trade tensions remains uncertain.
Business
Amazon Expands Job Creation in Europe’s High-Unemployment Regions, Invests Billions in Cloud and Infrastructure

Amazon has announced significant investments aimed at driving job growth across Europe’s high-unemployment regions, as part of its broader economic impact strategy. The announcement coincides with the release of the company’s 2024 Europe Impact Report, which revealed Amazon contributed over €41 billion to Europe’s GDP, including €29 billion to the EU27 alone.
The figure is comparable to the entire GDP of Latvia, underscoring Amazon’s growing footprint across the continent. “Our economic impact in Europe goes far beyond the numbers,” said Mariangela Marseglia, Vice President of Amazon Stores EU. “We’re creating opportunities where they’re needed most, supporting local economies, and helping to revitalize communities across the continent.”
Amazon currently employs over 150,000 people across the EU, with more than 90,000 jobs located in areas suffering from above-average unemployment, according to Eurostat. One of the most striking examples is in France’s Hauts-de-France region, where unemployment is 8.7%. There, Amazon has created over 6,000 jobs in the past decade, including 2,600 permanent roles at its Lauwin-Planque fulfillment center.
A recent survey revealed 71% of locals view Amazon’s presence positively, and 94% highlight job creation as a key benefit. Research by Ipsos further supports this trend, showing that 81% of residents near Amazon logistics centers have seen job opportunities increase. More than half report financial improvements that influence long-term life decisions like homeownership or starting a family.
Amazon has also confirmed it does not use zero-hour contracts in any European countries where they are legally permitted, maintaining consistent employment standards across the region.
In terms of long-term investments, Amazon poured over €55 billion into infrastructure and workforce development across Europe in 2024 alone, with €38 billion going to EU member states. Since 2010, total investment has surpassed €320 billion.
Future plans heavily involve Amazon Web Services (AWS), which continues to expand across major European tech hubs. In Germany, Amazon plans to invest €8.8 billion in Frankfurt through 2026, supporting 15,200 jobs and contributing €15.4 billion to the country’s GDP. In the UK, an £8 billion (€9.5 billion) investment will support 14,000 jobs annually through 2028. France is set to benefit from €6 billion in cloud infrastructure investment by 2031, projected to generate €16.8 billion in GDP and support over 5,200 jobs annually.
As Amazon diversifies its European operations, these strategic investments aim to foster employment, boost regional economies, and solidify its presence as a key driver of growth and innovation across the continent.
Business
European Steel Stocks Slide as Trump Tariff Hike Boosts U.S. Rivals

Shares of leading European steel producers dipped on Tuesday as markets reacted to former U.S. President Donald Trump’s plans to double tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, escalating concerns of renewed global trade tensions.
Trump’s proposal, which would increase existing tariffs from 25% to 50%, is set to take effect on June 4. The move has already jolted steel markets, sending European steel stocks lower while fueling gains among American producers. Trump defended the decision on his social media platform, Truth Social, declaring the measure a boost for U.S. industry: “Our steel and aluminum industries are coming back like never before. This will be yet another BIG jolt of great news for our wonderful steel and aluminum workers.”
European investors appeared less optimistic. German steelmaker Thyssenkrupp saw its shares fall 0.5% on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange on Tuesday, while Salzgitter AG slipped 0.4%. ArcelorMittal, one of the world’s largest steel manufacturers, dropped 1.1% on the Euronext Amsterdam. Austria’s Voestalpine AG also registered a 0.8% decline in Vienna.
Conversely, U.S. steel stocks rallied sharply following the announcement. Cleveland-Cliffs surged 23.2%, while Nucor and Steel Dynamics rose 10.1% and 10.3% respectively by Monday’s close, as investors bet on improved prospects for domestic producers shielded from international competition.
Despite the short-term boost for U.S. steel firms, the tariff hike has sparked fresh concerns about the broader economic consequences. Economists warn that the protectionist approach could backfire, raising costs for U.S. industries that rely heavily on imported aluminium and steel — particularly in the automotive and construction sectors.
Felix Tintelnot, professor of economics at Duke University, said the uncertainty surrounding such policy shifts makes long-term investment risky. “We’re talking about expansion of capacity of heavy industry that comes with significant upfront investments, and no business leader should take heavy upfront investments if they don’t believe that the same policy [will be] there two, three, or four years from now,” he told TIME.
Tintelnot further cautioned against setting trade policies unilaterally, emphasizing the need for a predictable economic framework. “Regardless of whether you’re in favour [of] or against these tariffs, you don’t want the President to just set tax rates arbitrarily, sort of by Executive Order all the time,” he said.
As global markets assess the potential fallout, the European steel industry may be bracing for more volatility, while U.S. manufacturers weigh the longer-term impact of a possibly inflationary policy shift.
Business
European Markets Slide as U.S.-China Tariff Tensions Escalate

European stock markets slipped on Monday afternoon as renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China unsettled investors, reigniting fears of a prolonged global trade dispute.
By 13:05 CEST, all major European indexes were trading in negative territory. The EURO STOXX 50 had dropped 0.68%, Germany’s DAX was down 0.48%, and France’s CAC 40 had fallen by 0.63%.
The downturn followed comments from Beijing accusing the United States of “severely violating” the terms of their recent trade agreement, prompting concerns of a fresh round of retaliatory measures. Investors were also reacting to U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement that tariffs on steel and aluminium imports would be doubled from 25% to 50% starting Wednesday.
“Donald Trump has upset markets once again,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, in a note shared with Euronews. “Doubling import taxes on steel and aluminium, and aggravating China once again, mean we face a situation where uncertainty prevails. Trump’s continuous moving of the goalposts is frustrating for businesses, governments, consumers, and investors.”
Market sentiment soured across Europe and Asia, with futures suggesting a similarly weak open for Wall Street later in the day. In response to rising uncertainty, investors turned to safe-haven assets, giving gold a boost.
U.S. Market Outlook Mixed
While U.S. equity markets ended May relatively flat, major indices posted solid gains over the month, lifted by earlier optimism around easing trade tensions. However, that sentiment is now under pressure.
“The latest broadsides from the White House were primarily directed at China and the EU, with both threatening a response in kind to any further tariff hikes,” said Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor.
Still, there were some encouraging economic signals. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, came in lower than expected, while consumer sentiment surprised on the upside. Analysts caution, however, that these may be temporary reprieves.
Looking ahead, attention is turning to U.S. non-farm payroll data due at the end of the week. Economists forecast 130,000 new jobs added in May, down from 177,000 the previous month, with unemployment expected to hold at 4.2%.
Despite recent gains, U.S. markets remain fragile. Year-to-date, the Dow Jones is down 0.6%, the Nasdaq 1%, while the S&P 500 has managed a modest 0.5% rise, bolstered in part by strength in large-cap tech stocks.
Asian Markets Also Weigh Trade and Geopolitics
Asian markets also came under pressure. The Hang Seng index fell amid renewed concerns over U.S. tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty stemming from ongoing Russia-Ukraine tensions.
Mainland China’s markets were closed for a public holiday, but investors expect potential losses upon reopening, particularly after recent data showed further contraction in factory activity.
With trade tensions heating up again, global markets are bracing for a volatile start to June.
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