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AI Could Replace Up to Three Million UK Jobs, But Boost Economy in the Long Run

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Artificial intelligence (AI) could ultimately displace between one and three million jobs across the UK, according to a new report by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change. The study suggests that AI-driven changes to the labor market could gradually increase unemployment, with annual job losses expected to peak between 60,000 and 275,000 as AI technology becomes more widely integrated across various industries.

The report, titled Impact of AI on the Labour Market, projects that despite these displacements, AI will ultimately create new demands and opportunities for workers. “Our best guess is that AI’s peak impact on unemployment is likely to be in the low hundreds of thousands,” the report states, noting that while some jobs may be eliminated, these effects will “be capped and ultimately offset” over time as the economy adjusts and new job categories emerge.

The report indicates that AI is particularly likely to affect fields that rely on cognitive tasks, such as administration, sales, customer service, and data-intensive roles in sectors like finance and banking. The gradual adoption of AI is expected to streamline operations, potentially reducing the need for human labor in these areas.

However, AI’s economic impact could be substantial, with the study estimating it could ultimately grow the UK economy by up to 14% by 2050. In the short term, AI adoption is expected to have a “relatively modest” effect, potentially boosting GDP by around 1% within the next five years, with a predicted rise in unemployment by as much as 180,000 by 2030. In the long term, labor productivity and time savings are expected to contribute to broader economic growth, especially as companies find ways to use AI to reduce costs and improve efficiency.

According to the study, large-scale AI adoption could allow firms to save roughly a quarter of private-sector workforce time, representing the equivalent productivity of six million workers. London, already a major hub for generative AI, holds 30% of Europe’s AI startups, underscoring the UK’s leadership in this growing sector, as highlighted by a June study from venture capital firms Accel and Dealroom.

The report also suggests that the benefits of AI are likely to reach smaller businesses if larger AI companies can develop scalable, cost-effective solutions that smaller enterprises can affordably implement. In addition, AI has the potential to improve the labor supply by enhancing workforce productivity and reducing time lost to health issues or job mismatches.

For AI’s transition to succeed, the study emphasizes the need for government involvement. The researchers recommend that governments proactively provide workers with training and information about workplace changes driven by AI, along with financial safety nets and retraining programs to maximize employment opportunities. The report also calls for contingency plans to address any disruptions if job losses and AI integration prove more challenging than expected.

While AI may lead to significant job transformations, the report sees it as a powerful tool for growth, with the potential to revolutionize productivity and economic output if carefully managed and widely adopted.

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EU Seeks Closer Defence Ties with Ukraine, Citing Battle-Tested Innovation

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The European Union has launched a new initiative to deepen defence cooperation with Ukraine, drawing on the war-torn country’s battlefield experience to strengthen European capabilities in key areas such as drone production.

The EU-Ukraine Defence Industries Task Force held its inaugural meeting on Monday, aiming to enhance industrial collaboration between Kyiv and Brussels. The effort was announced by European Commissioner for Defence and Space Andrius Kubilius during the second EU-Ukraine Defence Industry Forum.

Kubilius emphasized the urgency of integrating Ukraine’s rapidly evolving defence sector into Europe’s broader security framework, particularly in light of its advancements in unmanned systems and supply chain resilience.

Today, we announce the creation of the inter-institutional EU-Ukraine Task Force,” he said. “Ukrainian and European experts will now work together to develop joint projects and facilitate procurement processes that strengthen both our defence industries.”

The task force will focus on priority capabilities, especially explosives and drones. According to Kubilius, Ukraine’s innovation in drone production has positioned it as a global leader in the field. “We need to learn from Ukraine how to create a drone production and operation infrastructure,” he said, asserting that Europe stands to gain even more from this integration than Ukraine.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine has increased its annual defence production capacity to €35 billion — a 35-fold rise. Kubilius highlighted Ukraine’s ability to deliver modern, cost-effective defence solutions, describing its companies as “fast” and capable of producing at “half the price” of their European counterparts.

Alexander Kamyshin, an advisor to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, told the forum that the ongoing conflict would be remembered as “the first world drone war.” He noted Ukraine’s success in developing autonomous targeting systems and swarming drone capabilities, technologies he said the country is willing to share with European allies.

We’re here to build the arsenal of the free world together,” Kamyshin declared.

The EU is set to invest heavily in its defence sector over the next four years, including up to €650 billion in new fiscal allocations and €150 billion through a new loan programme dubbed SAFE. The initiative is designed to support joint procurement and could benefit Ukrainian firms as well.

Talks on the SAFE programme are expected to conclude by the end of May, with disbursements likely to begin by early 2026. Meanwhile, a broader strategic planning effort, including a new Industry Outlook based on member states’ capability targets, is set to be unveiled in June.

Peace through strength will come from production power and brain power,” Kubilius said. “To stop Putin, we need to produce more, innovate more, and we need to do that together: in the EU and with Ukraine.”

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Spy Scandal Strains Hungary-Ukraine Relations as Minority Rights Talks Collapse

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A deepening espionage scandal has plunged Hungary and Ukraine into a new diplomatic rift, with Budapest abruptly suspending planned talks on the rights of ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine’s Transcarpathia region.

According to Ukrainian officials, negotiations that were due to take place on May 12 in Uzhhorod were called off at the last minute by Hungary, despite the Ukrainian delegation already having arrived in the border town. The discussions were meant to address 11 Hungarian recommendations to strengthen the rights of the Hungarian minority living in the southwestern Carpathian region.

The suspension comes amid a growing diplomatic row sparked by Ukrainian allegations of Hungarian espionage. On May 9, Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) announced that it had uncovered a Hungarian military intelligence network operating on Ukrainian territory. Two former Ukrainian soldiers were detained, accused of collecting sensitive military information for Budapest. The network was reportedly overseen by a Hungarian intelligence officer.

In response, Ukraine expelled two Hungarian diplomats. Hungary retaliated in kind, expelling two Ukrainian officials. Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó dismissed the allegations as “propaganda,” stating that Hungary had not received any formal communication from Kyiv regarding the charges.

Tensions escalated further on Friday when Hungary’s Counter-Terrorism Centre detained a Ukrainian citizen in central Budapest. According to Hungarian authorities, the individual—described as a middle-aged man previously operating under diplomatic cover—was expelled from the country overnight for espionage. The National Directorate General for Aliens determined that his activities posed a “serious threat to Hungary’s sovereignty.”

The individual was deported after the situation was clarified,” the Hungarian government said in a statement, adding that the suspect no longer had diplomatic immunity.

The deteriorating relations have cast a shadow over longstanding concerns about minority rights in Transcarpathia, where ethnic Hungarians have lived for generations. Hungary has frequently criticized Ukraine for failing to uphold linguistic and cultural rights, while Kyiv has accused Budapest of interfering in its internal affairs.

With both sides now trading expulsions and suspending dialogue, the prospects for resolving the minority rights dispute — or cooling tensions more broadly — appear increasingly uncertain.

The incident marks the latest flashpoint in what has been a historically uneasy relationship between the two neighbours, now further complicated by war, security fears, and mounting geopolitical pressure.

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Bulgaria to Hold Referendum on Euro Adoption Amid Political and Economic Debate

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In a move that could reshape the country’s economic future, Bulgarian President Rumen Radev announced he would submit a request to parliament for a referendum on whether the country should adopt the euro as its official currency.

Bulgaria, as a full member of the European Union, faces a strategic decision — the introduction of the single European currency,” Radev said in a national address. “The referendum will be a test of the National Assembly’s democracy and will show who is following democratic principles and who is denying Bulgarians the right to determine their future.”

The push to adopt the euro comes amid years of political turmoil and economic challenges for Bulgaria, which has been part of the European Union since 2007. The decision to pursue eurozone membership has not been without its hurdles. In 2024, the European Central Bank (ECB) rejected Bulgaria’s bid to join the currency union, citing high inflation as a major obstacle.

In February 2025, the debate reached a boiling point when police in Sofia clashed with nationalist protesters who opposed the government’s plans. About 1,000 demonstrators gathered in front of the European Commission’s Sofia office, throwing red paint and firecrackers at the building, which resulted in a door being set on fire.

While the new government, formed just last month, has made joining the eurozone a priority, not everyone is convinced that Bulgaria is ready for the economic shift. Some economists argue that the country does not yet meet the necessary economic conditions for euro adoption, citing issues such as inflation and fiscal stability.

However, the Bulgarian government, with the backing of pro-European parties in parliament, maintains that adopting the euro is crucial for deeper European integration. As geopolitical tensions rise in Europe, they argue that adopting the euro would help secure Bulgaria’s place within the European project.

At the same time, nationalist factions, particularly those with pro-Russia sympathies, have ramped up opposition to the eurozone bid. These groups are reportedly spreading disinformation in an effort to sway public opinion and create fear around the potential impacts of euro adoption.

As Bulgaria moves toward the referendum, the country finds itself at a crossroads. The decision to adopt the euro will not only affect the economy but could also reshape the nation’s political and diplomatic future within the EU.

The outcome of the referendum remains uncertain, with significant divisions within the country about the advantages and risks of joining the eurozone.

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