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Global Obesity Rates Expected to Soar by 2050, Study Warns

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A new study published in The Lancet projects that by 2050, nearly 60% of adults and 31% of children and young people worldwide will be overweight or obese, marking a sharp increase from previous decades. The research highlights a growing health crisis, with experts warning of serious consequences for global well-being.

A Worsening Trend

According to the study, 3.8 billion adults and 746 million young people are expected to be overweight or obese by mid-century. This marks a significant rise from 1990 figures when 731 million adults and 198 million young people were classified as overweight or obese. The findings show that each new generation is gaining weight earlier and faster than before.

For example, in high-income countries, 7% of men born in the 1960s were obese by the age of 25, but this percentage increased to 16% for men born in the 1990s and is expected to reach 25% for those born in 2015. This trend is fueling an epidemic linked to type 2 diabetes, high blood pressure, heart disease, and certain cancers.

Emmanuela Gakidou, one of the study’s authors, called the obesity crisis a “monumental societal failure.”

Global Hotspots for Obesity

The study identified several countries as obesity hotspots. In 2021, over half of the world’s overweight or obese adults were concentrated in just eight countries:

  • China (402 million)
  • India (180 million)
  • United States (172 million)
  • Brazil (88 million)
  • Russia (71 million)
  • Mexico (58 million)
  • Indonesia (52 million)
  • Egypt (41 million)

Future growth in obesity rates is expected to be driven by population increases in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Among high-income nations, the United States, Chile, and Argentina are projected to have the highest obesity rates. In Europe, Greece is forecasted to have the highest levels of obesity by 2050, affecting 48% of women and 41% of men.

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Impact on Healthcare Systems

As obesity rates climb, so do associated health risks. The study estimates that by 2050, one in four obese adults worldwide will be over 65, adding further strain on global healthcare systems. The effects are already being felt in countries like the U.S., Australia, and parts of Europe, where obesity-related health complications are lowering life expectancy and quality of life.

Despite these alarming trends, research suggests that only 7% of countries worldwide have healthcare systems prepared to tackle the rising obesity-related health burdens. Experts warn that without intervention, obesity will continue to drive millions of premature deaths annually from conditions like diabetes, heart disease, cancer, and stroke.

Rising Obesity Rates Among Young People

The research also paints a troubling picture for younger generations. While most young people in 2050 are expected to be overweight rather than obese, childhood and adolescent obesity rates are set to increase by 121%.

Obesity is expected to rise sharply in North Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, and the Caribbean, as well as in large nations such as the U.S. and China. Among high-income nations, Chile is forecasted to have the highest childhood obesity rates, while the U.S. will lead in obesity among young adults (ages 15-24). In Europe, Greece and San Marino will have the highest rates among boys and girls, respectively.

Dr. Jessica Kerr, one of the study’s authors, emphasized that interventions are still possible, saying, “If we act now, we can prevent a complete transition to global obesity for children and adolescents.”

Calls for Policy Changes

Experts argue that addressing the crisis requires more than just medical treatments. The study measured obesity using body mass index (BMI), a widely used metric, but one that some researchers say should be replaced with more precise health indicators.

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Meanwhile, new weight-loss drugs, such as GLP-1 receptor agonists, have been hailed as potential game-changers, but experts caution that medications alone cannot stop the obesity epidemic.

Johanna Ralston, CEO of the World Obesity Federation, warned that tackling obesity requires comprehensive policy changes. Strategies such as food labeling, taxation on unhealthy foods, and better urban planning to encourage physical activity are crucial to combating the crisis.

“We can’t just treat our way out of it. We need to change the way we approach food and exercise as a society,” Ralston said.

The findings underscore the urgent need for a global, multi-pronged strategy to address the obesity epidemic before it becomes an even greater public health catastrophe.

 

Health

More Europeans Take Up Sport, but Major Gaps Remain Across Countries

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More Europeans are exercising regularly than they were four years ago, but participation continues to vary sharply depending on where people live, their age, education and financial circumstances, according to a new European Commission survey.

The latest Eurobarometer survey on sport and physical activity found that 39% of respondents said they never exercise or play sport, down from 45% in 2022. Nearly half of the 26,508 people surveyed said they exercise or play sport every day or several times a week.

The results also showed wide differences between countries. Finland recorded the highest share of people exercising daily, at 21%, followed by Denmark at 20%. In both countries, another 59% of respondents said they exercise several times a week.

At the other end of the scale, 68% of respondents in Portugal said they never exercise or play sport. Greece and Romania followed, with 66% in each country reporting that they never take part in sport or exercise.

Time was the most commonly cited barrier among people who wanted to exercise more, with 37% identifying it as an obstacle. A lack of motivation or interest was mentioned by 26%, while 15% pointed to health problems or injury. Cost was cited by 12%.

Education and household finances were also closely linked to participation. Some 59% of people who continued their education until at least the age of 20 said they exercise or play sport several times a week. That compared with 23% among those who left education at 15 or younger.

Financial circumstances showed a similar divide. People who said they had the greatest difficulty paying their bills were twice as likely to report never exercising as those who rarely or never faced financial difficulties, at 54% compared with 26%.

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“More Europeans are getting active, but the opportunity to take part still depends too much on income, age and education,” said Roxana Mînzatu, Executive Vice-President for Social Rights and Skills, Quality Jobs and Preparedness.

The survey also highlighted a significant age gap. Nearly three-quarters of people aged 15 to 24 exercise or play sport at least several times a week, compared with 25% of those aged 75 and over. Health problems or injury were the main barrier for older respondents, while younger and middle-aged people were more likely to cite a lack of time.

Physical activity linked to everyday life also increased. Active commuting rose from 24% in 2022 to 37%, while 72% of respondents said they now walk for at least 10 minutes at a time.

The survey found, however, that some Europeans do not consider their neighbourhoods suitable for walking or cycling, potentially restricting opportunities for active travel.

Mînzatu said affordable sport and safe places to exercise should be available close to where people live, including for children from families unable to afford club fees, older people and those with disabilities.

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Congenital Infections Linked to Higher Risks of Autism and Intellectual Disability

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Children born with certain infections acquired during pregnancy face substantially higher risks of autism and intellectual disability later in life, according to a study of more than 3.7 million people in Sweden.

Researchers found that children with congenital infections were about three times more likely to be diagnosed with autism and more than seven times more likely to receive a diagnosis of intellectual disability than those without such infections.

The findings suggest that infections transmitted from a pregnant woman to her foetus may have lasting effects on brain development, although the study identifies an association rather than proving that the infections directly cause autism or intellectual disability.

The research focused on TORCH infections, a group that includes syphilis, rubella, toxoplasmosis, cytomegalovirus and herpesvirus. These infections can cross the placenta and affect the developing foetus, potentially increasing the risk of miscarriage, stillbirth and other pregnancy complications.

“Although these congenital infections are rare, some of them can be prevented, which makes them important from a public health perspective,” said Reneé Gardner of the Department of Global Public Health at Karolinska Institutet, who contributed to the study.

The researchers examined people born in Sweden between 1987 and 2021 and followed them for up to 30 years. Among the 3.7 million participants, 975 had been diagnosed with a congenital TORCH infection.

Although congenital infections accounted for only a small proportion of autism cases across the population, the risk among affected children was considerably higher. The researchers estimated that about one in five children born with a TORCH infection could later develop autism.

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The study also found elevated risks of intellectual disability across different levels of severity. The risk of severe to profound intellectual disability was as much as 30 times higher among children with a congenital infection than among those without one.

The researchers found evidence of an impact on educational outcomes even among people who were not diagnosed with autism or intellectual disability. A total of 420 participants with a TORCH infection showed poor school performance without receiving either diagnosis.

Congenital cytomegalovirus, or CMV, is the most common of these infections globally and affects roughly one in 150 newborns. Its burden is substantially greater in low- and middle-income countries.

The researchers said the findings highlight the importance of prevention, particularly in regions where these infections are more common. They pointed to vaccination programmes and other preventive measures as important tools for reducing congenital infections.

They also called for improved identification of affected newborns. Current screening systems, including those used in Sweden, may miss asymptomatic infections because universal screening for TORCH infections is not routinely carried out.

The authors said stronger screening and prevention strategies could help identify children at risk earlier and improve long-term support and care.

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AI Chatbots Make Faster, Less Nuanced Kidney Transplant Decisions Than Doctors

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Artificial intelligence chatbots may make faster and more confident decisions than human doctors when determining which patient should receive a life-saving kidney transplant, but a new study found that the systems often rely on fewer factors and show less sensitivity to the ethical complexity of such choices.

Researchers from Penn State University in the United States compared decisions made by large language models (LLMs) with choices made by people in earlier studies on kidney allocation. The researchers presented AI models with hypothetical cases based on existing datasets in which human participants had previously chosen between two patients competing for a single available kidney.

The patients were described using characteristics including age, health and drinking habits. Both were considered eligible for the transplant, requiring the decision maker to determine which patient should receive the available organ.

The researchers tested the AI systems in several ways. Some scenarios focused on individual characteristics, while others combined several traits to examine how the models handled competing considerations. In some tests, participants and AI systems were also given the option of flipping a coin, allowing researchers to assess indecision as part of moral decision-making.

Human participants generally placed greater importance on age, often favouring younger patients over older patients. Many of the AI models, however, placed greater weight on lower alcohol consumption.

Hadi Hosseini, the study’s lead researcher at Penn State University, said the findings showed that AI chatbots can diverge from human values when weighing characteristics of patients.

The researchers found that human decisions tended to consider several factors together and were more sensitive to context. LLMs, by contrast, frequently focused on a single characteristic when making their choices.

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Another difference involved uncertainty. Human participants were more likely to recognise that organ allocation can involve competing ethical considerations and that there may not be one objectively correct answer. AI models generally showed little hesitation and committed to one choice.

John Dickerson, chief executive officer of Mozilla.ai and a collaborator on the study, said humans recognise ambiguity when allocating scarce resources and use debate to shape how such decisions are made.

The findings come as AI systems are increasingly being used in healthcare for clinical workflows, diagnosis, treatment planning and decisions involving limited medical resources.

The researchers said kidney allocation presents a particularly important test because decisions over deceased-donor and living-donor organs involve medical, ethical and moral considerations.

Hosseini said the ethical stakes are high because decisions involving organ allocation can directly affect patients’ lives. He stressed that the study was not intended to encourage replacing professional medical judgment with AI.

Instead, the researchers said understanding how AI systems behave in high-stakes situations is becoming increasingly important as individuals, organisations and businesses use AI to make decisions or provide recommendations.

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