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UniCredit Threatens to Abandon €10 Billion Takeover of Banco BPM Amid Escalating Tensions

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UniCredit, Italy’s largest bank, has warned that it will walk away from its proposed €10 billion acquisition of Banco BPM if the smaller bank proceeds with an increased bid to acquire Anima Holding SpA. The takeover battle, which has intensified in recent weeks, has led to a public war of words between UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel and Banco BPM CEO Giuseppe Castagna.

UniCredit’s Countermove

UniCredit originally made its €10 billion takeover offer for Banco BPM in November 2024, shortly after Banco BPM made a €1 billion bid to acquire Anima Holding, an asset management firm. Banco BPM sought to boost its asset management fee income as interest rates declined.

However, UniCredit’s bid has complicated Banco BPM’s ability to finalize its offer for Anima, as Italian regulations prevent a bank that is the target of a takeover from pursuing its own acquisitions without shareholder approval.

Banco BPM’s shareholders are set to vote on February 28 to decide whether to increase their offer for Anima from €6.2 per share to €7 per share. If successful, Banco BPM’s market valuation would rise above €13 billion, exceeding UniCredit’s acquisition offer.

Orcel has made it clear that UniCredit will not overpay for Banco BPM and has hinted that he may withdraw the takeover offer altogether if Banco BPM’s bid for Anima moves forward.

Regulatory Hurdles and Financial Risks

To proceed with the Anima acquisition, Banco BPM would need to secure regulatory approval for favorable capital treatment, known as the Danish Compromise. However, this would require a lengthy approval process from the European Central Bank (ECB).

UniCredit has argued that if Banco BPM’s shareholders approve the increased bid for Anima, the bank’s CET1 capital ratio could decline by approximately 268 basis points, adding significant financial strain.

In a strongly worded statement, UniCredit said:
“In case the Offer were 100% successful and the Danish Compromise not granted, BPM’s CET1 ratio would decline by approximately 268bps, adding to the financial burden of an increased consideration.”

Escalating Tensions Between Bank CEOs

Banco BPM’s CEO Giuseppe Castagna has fired back at UniCredit’s claims, calling them “very dangerous” and “fake news.”

In an interview, Castagna accused Orcel of trying to manipulate Banco BPM’s stock price and influence the shareholder vote. He stated:
“The allegations that we are not going to get the Danish Compromise is completely fake news. The guy is trying to play a game. He wants to depress our stock in favor of his own stock. We will respond legally to these kinds of allegations.”

If Banco BPM secures shareholder approval for its increased bid, two major Anima investors—Poste Italiane and private equity fund FSI—have already indicated they will sell their stakes to Banco BPM, according to Reuters.

UniCredit’s Final Warning

Despite the mounting tensions, UniCredit emphasized that it has not yet made a final decision on whether to withdraw its offer.

In its statement, the bank said:
“Notice of the above is given to the public to ensure that BPM shareholders can make their own decisions in full awareness of the risks and uncertainties underlying the proposals that have been made to them and the possible consequences of their decisions.”

With the shareholder vote just weeks away, the fate of both Banco BPM’s bid for Anima and UniCredit’s takeover offer remains uncertain.

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Oil Prices Tumble to Multi-Year Low as OPEC+ Accelerates Output Hikes Amid Trade Tensions

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Global oil prices fell sharply on Monday, hitting their lowest levels in over four years, after the OPEC+ alliance confirmed it would speed up the unwinding of production cuts by boosting output in June. The move, aimed in part at penalizing members that exceeded quota limits, comes as global demand softens under the weight of escalating U.S.-China trade tensions.

Brent crude futures dropped as much as 4.6% during Asian trading hours to $58.50 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell nearly 5% to $55.53. Both benchmarks are at their lowest levels since February 2021.

The latest decision by OPEC+ — which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia — will see eight member nations raise production by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June. This follows increases of 135,000 bpd in April and 411,000 bpd in May, bringing the total planned increase to nearly 1 million bpd over three months.

OPEC+ had initially implemented significant output cuts to stabilize prices during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it began unwinding those cuts earlier this year, citing the need to discipline non-compliant producers such as Iraq and Kazakhstan.

In a statement released over the weekend, OPEC+ noted the changes could be paused or reversed depending on market conditions. “This flexibility will allow the group to continue to support oil market stability,” it said, adding that the decision gives countries a chance to compensate for previous overproduction.

The timing of the move has added to already mounting pressure on oil prices. Global demand has weakened as trade tensions between the United States and China continue to escalate. U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff-driven trade policy has raised concerns over slowing economic growth, with recent data showing a contraction in the U.S. economy and declining manufacturing activity in China — the world’s largest oil importer.

Oil prices dropped more than 7% last week, their steepest weekly loss in a month. Analysts now say the market is increasingly driven by demand-side concerns. “The Saudis have taken their hands off the wheel when it comes to supply,” said Kyle Rodda, a senior analyst at Capital.com. “Any recovery in prices now depends entirely on whether the trade outlook improves.”

Markets are closely watching developments between Washington and Beijing. Trump said Sunday he may ease tariffs to reopen trade talks, while China confirmed it is reviewing recent diplomatic overtures from the U.S.

With rising supply and uncertain demand, oil markets remain volatile heading into the summer.

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Private Equity Ramps Up Investment in Travel Sector Amid Post-COVID Rebound

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Private equity firms are stepping up their investments in the global travel and tourism industry, targeting hotels, resorts, restaurants, and tour operators as they seek to capitalise on a sector rebounding strongly after the COVID-19 pandemic.

In the second quarter of 2024 alone, private equity (PE) deals in Europe’s tourism and leisure industry totalled nearly $823 million (€724.4 million), according to GlobalData. One standout transaction saw Ares Management Corporation and EQ Group acquire Landsec’s hotel portfolio in the UK for £400 million (€466.7 million).

Analysts say this uptick in activity is driven by multiple factors, including improved travel demand, constrained supply in prime tourism locations, and a growing preference for luxury and wellness experiences over material goods. During the pandemic, PE firms had already begun snapping up undervalued travel assets, anticipating future growth.

“Private equity now accounts for around 40% of M&A activity in the UK travel sector,” said Andrew Keller, director at Stax Consulting. “We’re seeing strong interest in tech-enabled and experiential travel firms, with many PE players adopting buy-and-build strategies.”

Graham Miller of the Nova School of Business & Economics notes that the hotel, resort, and restaurant sectors have seen significant PE interest. Investments are also rising in travel infrastructure and service firms, especially in emerging destinations like Central Asia and Scandinavia.

Demographic trends are also playing a role. “Affluent baby boomers nearing retirement are expected to drive higher future demand, while regulatory and construction cost barriers make acquiring existing hotels more attractive than building new ones,” explained Dr. René-Ojas Woltering of EHL Hospitality Business School.

To boost profitability, PE firms often remodel properties, streamline operations, introduce new technologies, and target high-margin segments such as luxury and group travel. In some cases, they also restructure debt and integrate AI tools to improve operations.

However, this aggressive transformation comes with challenges. Labour shortages, rising costs, regulatory barriers, and cultural clashes between investors and company founders can complicate the path to profitability. Maintaining service quality while implementing cost-cutting measures also remains a delicate balancing act.

“The alignment of investor goals with the company’s long-term vision is essential,” Miller said. “If not managed well, private equity involvement can threaten brand identity and sustainability.”

Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, the resilience of the travel sector continues to attract PE interest, as consumers remain eager to explore—albeit on shorter or more budget-conscious trips.

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Apple Beats Earnings Expectations, but Shares Fall Amid China Slump and Tariff Worries

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Apple Inc. posted better-than-expected earnings for its fiscal second quarter, but shares fell nearly 4% in after-hours trading on Thursday, as mounting concerns over declining sales in China and escalating tariff uncertainty dampened investor enthusiasm.

The tech giant reported a 5% year-on-year increase in revenue to $95.4 billion for the March quarter, surpassing analysts’ forecasts of $94.6 billion. Earnings per share also came in stronger than anticipated at $1.65, above the projected $1.62. Apple highlighted double-digit growth in its Services division and modest gains in iPhone sales, driven by demand for the newly released, budget-friendly iPhone 16e.

Despite the positive headline figures, investors focused on Apple’s weaker performance in Greater China, where revenue fell by 2.3% year-on-year to $16 billion. The dip follows an 11% decline in the previous quarter and reflects intensifying competition from domestic smartphone makers like Xiaomi and Vivo, as well as lagging innovation in artificial intelligence features compared to rivals.

In contrast, U.S. sales rose 8% over the same period. However, Apple CEO Tim Cook noted there was no evidence of consumers speeding up purchases in anticipation of new tariffs, suggesting that broader economic uncertainty continues to shape consumer behavior.

Tariff-related costs remain a looming challenge. Apple expects a $900 million increase in expenses during the June quarter if no new levies are introduced. While President Donald Trump recently exempted electronics from a fresh wave of China tariffs, existing measures continue to impact key components. Cook described the outlook for the second half of the year as “very difficult” to predict.

In response to ongoing trade tensions, Apple is reportedly accelerating efforts to shift iPhone production for the U.S. market to India, potentially starting in 2026. Cook confirmed that while some assembly has moved, most global production remains in China.

Apple’s Services segment, which includes Apple TV+, iCloud, and the App Store, saw revenue grow 12% to $26.7 billion. Though still robust, this marked a slight slowdown from 14% growth last quarter. The division is under scrutiny in the EU and U.S. over regulatory concerns related to digital marketplaces and payment systems.

Elsewhere, sales of Mac and iPad devices rose 7% and 15% respectively, boosted by the launch of new M3-powered models. However, the Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment declined 5%, a dip attributed to last year’s Vision Pro launch creating a tough year-on-year comparison.

Despite the uncertainty, Apple increased its quarterly dividend by 4% to $0.26 per share and authorized a new $100 billion stock buyback program. Still, shares have fallen 16% year-to-date, underscoring investor caution as the company navigates a complex geopolitical and regulatory landscape.

Apple forecast low-to-mid single-digit revenue growth for the current quarter, falling short of analysts’ expectations for a 5% rise.

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