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Euro Rises to Two-Month High Amid Tariff Delay and Ukraine Peace Talks

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The euro surged to its highest level in nearly two months on Monday, bolstered by US President Donald Trump’s decision to postpone reciprocal tariffs and his push for peace talks in Ukraine. However, analysts caution that the common currency’s rebound may be short-lived amid lingering economic and geopolitical uncertainties.

Euro Gains as Inflation Concerns Ease

The EUR/USD pair climbed to nearly 1.05 in the early Asian trading session, reaching levels last seen on December 18 and briefly touched again in late January. The euro’s rally is largely attributed to Trump’s unexpected tariff delay and renewed optimism surrounding a potential ceasefire in Ukraine.

Market sentiment improved last week after Trump announced a delay in his proposed reciprocal tariffs, a move that eased concerns over inflationary pressures. While the US president has frequently used tariff threats as a negotiation tool, he has so far only implemented a 10% levy on Chinese goods, leaving markets hopeful that further duties might be scaled back or scrapped.

Adding to the optimism, crude oil prices dropped sharply following Trump’s phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The discussion, which Trump described as “lengthy and highly productive”, fueled speculation that negotiations might include easing restrictions on Russian oil exports. If that were to happen, inflationary pressures could subside further, strengthening the euro while weakening the US dollar.

The improved outlook for European markets has led traders to favor the euro and British pound, according to Michael McCarthy, Chief Commercial Officer at Moomoo Australia. “Markets are seeing this as a ‘double win’ trade—peace prospects in Ukraine are boosting sentiment toward the European economy, while waning post-election optimism in the US is pulling the dollar down,” he said.

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Concerns Over Sustainability of Euro’s Rally

Despite the temporary boost, market analysts warn that the euro’s gains could be short-lived as both Trump’s tariff policy and Ukraine peace negotiations remain highly uncertain.

Just days after announcing the tariff delay, Trump revealed plans to introduce new levies on automobiles starting April 2, targeting key US trading partners—particularly the European Union. The sweeping reciprocal tariffs remain under review by the US Commerce Department, with a final decision expected by April 1. Should these tariffs be implemented aggressively, they could undermine confidence in the euro and push the currency lower once again.

Similarly, while talks of a Ukraine peace deal have sparked optimism, the complexity of ceasefire negotiations means a resolution could take months, if not longer. A key meeting in Paris on Monday, hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron, will see EU leaders—including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni—discuss a joint military defense spending package. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is also expected to participate, aiming to strengthen European defense capabilities in post-war Ukraine.

However, Trump has insisted that the EU take greater responsibility for its own security, which could pressure European governments to increase military spending—potentially leading to higher debt levels that could weigh on the euro.

Upcoming German Elections Add to Uncertainty

Another looming factor that could impact the euro is Germany’s snap elections, set to take place in less than a week. Political uncertainty in Europe’s largest economy has historically pressured the euro, and a volatile election outcome could further weaken investor confidence in the currency.

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Despite the euro’s current strength, some analysts remain bullish on the US dollar, pointing to America’s strong economic performance compared to Europe’s fragile recovery.

“My stance remains bullish USD,” wrote Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone in London, in a client note. “Ongoing US economic outperformance should see both the dollar and US stocks continue to climb, albeit in a volatile manner,” he added.

With tariff decisions pending, geopolitical tensions still unresolved, and European economic challenges persisting, the euro’s rally may struggle to hold in the coming weeks.

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Turkey Offers Cheapest Holiday Costs in Europe, While Portugal Leads for Hotels and Dining

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Turkey has emerged as the most affordable holiday destination among seven of Europe’s most popular tourist countries, while Portugal offers the best value for hotels and restaurants, according to a Euronews Business analysis of Eurostat price data.

The comparison examined national average prices across Turkey, Portugal, Spain, Greece, Croatia, Italy and France, covering a wide range of consumer goods and services. Although prices in major tourist resorts can vary from national averages, the data provides a broad picture of what travellers can expect when planning summer holidays.

Using Eurostat’s Household Final Consumption Expenditure price index, which measures the average cost of more than 2,000 goods and services, Turkey ranked as the least expensive destination overall. A basket of goods and services costing €100 across the European Union would cost about €59.60 in Turkey, making it roughly 40% cheaper than the EU average.

France was the most expensive country in the survey, with average prices slightly above the EU benchmark at €100.30. Italy followed at €97.10, while Spain, Greece, Portugal and Croatia all recorded lower overall price levels than the European average.

Accommodation and dining costs showed even greater differences. Portugal offered the lowest prices for hotels and restaurants, with a price index of 73.6, meaning visitors could expect to pay more than 26% less than the EU average for meals and lodging. Turkey ranked second in this category with a score of 78.3, while Spain and Greece also remained below the European average.

France proved to be the most expensive destination for accommodation and restaurant services, followed by Italy.

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Food prices varied less dramatically across the countries. France again recorded the highest average grocery costs, with food prices almost 8% above the EU average. Turkey remained the least expensive for food shopping, while Spain was the only other country where food prices were below the European benchmark.

One category where Turkey stood out for a different reason was alcohol. Despite being the cheapest destination overall, alcoholic beverages were by far the most expensive among the countries surveyed. Alcohol prices were more than double the EU average, largely reflecting the country’s high taxes on alcoholic drinks.

Italy offered the lowest alcohol prices, while Spain also remained below the European average. Greece and Croatia recorded relatively high prices for alcoholic beverages.

Turkey also had the lowest tobacco prices by a considerable margin and ranked as the cheapest destination for public transport. France was the only country where public transport costs exceeded the EU average.

Seafood prices were comparatively stable across all seven destinations, with only modest differences between countries.

The analysis noted that the figures reflect national averages rather than prices in individual holiday resorts. It also does not account for differences in income levels, meaning affordability may vary depending on where travellers are visiting from.

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EU Advances Digital Euro Talks as Lawmakers Enter Final Negotiation Stage

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The European Union has moved a step closer to introducing the digital euro after the European Parliament approved its negotiating position, clearing the way for final discussions with member states on the proposed digital currency.

The vote in Strasbourg marks the beginning of the last phase of negotiations between the European Parliament and EU governments. Lawmakers and national representatives are expected to focus on several complex issues, including how banks and payment providers will be compensated for offering digital euro services and how transaction fees will be distributed across the payment system.

The digital euro is planned as an electronic version of central bank money issued and guaranteed by the European Central Bank (ECB). Officials have repeatedly stressed that the new currency is intended to complement physical cash rather than replace it, while also working alongside existing banking and payment services.

Under the proposal, consumers would be able to store digital euros in a dedicated electronic wallet. A maximum holding limit will be introduced, although the exact amount has not yet been decided.

The system is expected to support both online and offline payments, allowing transactions even when internet access is unavailable. Privacy has also been presented as a key feature of the project. According to the proposal, the ECB will operate the underlying infrastructure but will not be able to directly identify users through their payment data.

Commercial banks and payment service providers will be responsible for offering digital euro accounts and related services to individuals and businesses, creating a partnership between the central bank and the private financial sector.

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According to sources familiar with the negotiations, the most challenging issue remains the compensation model. Negotiators must determine which financial institutions will receive payments for providing digital euro services, how much compensation they should receive and how those payments will be financed.

Another important topic is the distribution of transaction fees throughout the payment chain. Current proposals suggest merchants would pay lower fees than those typically charged for traditional card payments, a move that supporters believe could reduce business costs and encourage wider adoption of digital payments.

The negotiations are expected to intensify during the autumn as lawmakers seek to resolve outstanding disagreements before presenting the final legislation.

If agreement is reached, EU institutions aim to grant final approval before the end of the year. The European Central Bank is expected to begin a pilot programme in 2027 to test the system before a wider public rollout.

Current plans envisage the digital euro becoming available for everyday retail payments in 2029. European officials view the initiative as an important step toward strengthening the region’s payment infrastructure, improving financial resilience and providing consumers with a secure public digital payment option in an increasingly cashless economy.

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Oxford Economics Warns US-Iran Peace Deal Will Shape Global Economy in Second Half of Year

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The outlook for the global economy during the remainder of the year will depend largely on whether the fragile peace agreement between the United States and Iran survives, according to a new analysis by Oxford Economics, which says the deal could determine the direction of inflation, energy prices and financial markets.

After a first half marked by conflict in the Middle East, volatile oil prices and rapid growth in artificial intelligence investments, the consultancy believes the next six months will be influenced by a series of interconnected risks, with the US-Iran truce standing at the center.

Chief Global Economist Ryan Sweet said the durability of the agreement would determine whether the global economy benefits from lower energy costs or faces another oil-price shock.

Oxford Economics forecasts global annualized economic growth of 3.1 percent during the second half of the year, compared with an estimated 1.6 percent in the first six months. The projection assumes oil prices remain relatively stable, supporting consumer spending and easing inflationary pressures. However, Sweet described the chances of the peace agreement holding as no better than “a coin flip.”

The report expects Brent crude to average in the low $70s per barrel if the agreement remains intact. A breakdown, however, could trigger higher inflation, tighter financial conditions and renewed pressure on global supply chains.

Those concerns intensified after fresh military exchanges on Wednesday. The United States launched strikes against Iran following allegations that Tehran had attacked three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded with strikes targeting Bahrain and Kuwait, raising fears that the ceasefire could unravel.

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Oil markets reacted quickly, with Brent crude climbing above $78 a barrel after rising more than six percent during trading.

Oxford Economics said any disruption would extend well beyond energy markets. Higher oil prices could increase production costs for technology companies, disrupt semiconductor supply chains across Asia, complicate central bank policy decisions and influence political developments, including upcoming elections in the United States and Israel.

The consultancy’s outlook differs from several other major forecasts. Morgan Stanley expects crude prices to approach $90 a barrel by year-end, while the World Bank projects Brent crude to average around $94 this year and anticipates global economic growth slowing to 2.5 percent in 2026.

Oxford Economics identified shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz as one of the clearest indicators of whether the peace agreement is holding. The report said a sustained recovery in vessel traffic by mid-July would strengthen confidence in the deal.

Beyond geopolitics, the report highlighted growing risks surrounding the artificial intelligence sector. The Bank for International Settlements recently warned that rapid expansion in AI investment has become increasingly dependent on private credit and complex financing arrangements outside the traditional banking system.

Oxford Economics also modeled a scenario in which US technology stocks fall by 25 percent over one year. According to Sweet, such a correction would bring US economic growth close to a standstill and reduce global growth by more than one percentage point.

Despite these risks, the consultancy said stronger AI-driven productivity and resilient economic activity in Europe could provide support if geopolitical tensions ease and energy markets stabilize during the second half of the year.

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