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Germany’s Inflation Hits 11-Month High in December, Surpassing Forecasts

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Germany’s inflation surged in December to its highest level in nearly a year, presenting a renewed challenge for the European Central Bank (ECB) as policymakers strive to control price pressures across the eurozone.

Data released Monday by the Federal Statistical Office revealed a 2.6% year-on-year increase in Germany’s consumer price index (CPI), up from 2.2% in November and exceeding analysts’ expectations of 2.4%. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.4%, reversing a 0.2% decline in November and beating predictions of 0.3%. This marks the highest annual inflation rate since January 2024.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, edged up to 3.1% from 3% in November, underscoring persistent underlying price pressures.

Using the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) for eurozone comparisons, inflation surged to 2.9% year-on-year, above the 2.6% forecast, and posted a 0.7% month-on-month gain, the strongest since March 2023.

Breakdown of Inflation Drivers

Service costs rose 4.1% year-on-year in December, slightly up from 4% in November. Food prices also accelerated, climbing 2% compared to 1.8% the previous month. Meanwhile, energy prices, a key factor in recent disinflationary trends, fell by 1.7%, a slower decline than November’s 3.7%.

The data comes ahead of Tuesday’s eurozone-wide inflation report, which is expected to show a rise in annual inflation to 2.4% in December from 2.2% in November. Core inflation in the bloc is projected to remain stable at 2.7%, complicating the ECB’s task of meeting its 2% inflation target.

Market Reactions

The unexpected inflation spike reverberated through financial markets. German government bond yields rose sharply, with the benchmark 10-year Bund yield climbing to 2.45%, the highest since early November. The two-year Schatz yield also rose by three basis points to 2.20%.

The euro strengthened, gaining 1.3% to trade above $1.04, as investors speculated that the ECB would be less likely to aggressively cut rates in the near term.

The single currency’s rise was bolstered by reports from The Washington Post suggesting that the U.S. may opt for a more targeted tariff policy rather than blanket increases.

European equity markets responded positively, with major indices recording gains. The Euro Stoxx 50 index surged 1.6%, while France’s CAC 40 climbed 1.5%, driven by luxury and industrial stocks. In Germany, the DAX index rose 0.9%, led by automotive stocks, with Porsche AG and Daimler Truck Holding AG soaring over 6%.

Implications for the ECB

The data highlights the challenges faced by the ECB in balancing growth and inflation control. With Germany’s inflation remaining elevated and core inflation showing resilience, expectations are mounting for a cautious approach to monetary policy in the coming months.

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Prada’s Strong Earnings Fuel Speculation Over Versace Acquisition

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Prada Group has reported its fourth consecutive year of double-digit growth, positioning itself as a potential buyer for Versace, which is currently owned by Capri Holdings. The strong financial results come as the luxury sector faces its first downturn since the 2008 financial crisis, making Prada’s performance stand out among its competitors.

Prada’s Earnings Defy Market Trends

On Tuesday, Prada announced a 17% increase in revenues, reaching €5.4 billion in 2024, up from €4.7 billion in 2023. The company’s retail sales grew by 18%, totaling €4.6 billion.

Breaking down the performance by brand:

  • Prada, which drives the majority of earnings, saw a 4% increase in sales.
  • Miu Miu, the group’s younger brand, nearly doubled its revenues, marking a significant boost in demand.

This success comes despite a sluggish global luxury market, which contracted in 2023 for the first time in over a decade. Prada Group Chairman Patrizio Bertelli credited the company’s resilience to its commitment to “product innovation, quality, craftsmanship, and a deep understanding of contemporary fashion trends.”

Versace Acquisition Talks Gain Momentum

With Prada’s robust financial standing, speculation is growing over its interest in acquiring Versace from Capri Holdings. The U.S.-based luxury group, which also owns Michael Kors and Jimmy Choo, purchased Versace in 2018 for €1.8 billion but has since struggled to reposition the iconic Italian brand. Reports suggest Versace could now be valued at around €1.5 billion, a significant discount from its original price.

Prada’s Co-Chief Executive Miuccia Prada added fuel to the speculation last week when she commented that Versace was “on everybody’s table” following Prada’s Fall-Winter 2025-26 collection showcase.

During an analyst conference call, CEO Andrea Guerra remained cautious, stating that Prada’s focus remains on growing its existing brands. However, he also acknowledged that it would be “arrogant” not to explore opportunities, without directly naming Versace.

Challenges of a Potential Deal

While acquiring Versace could strengthen Prada’s portfolio, industry analysts warn of potential risks. Luca Solca, a luxury sector analyst at Bernstein, suggested that Prada “may be getting Versace on the cheap” but cautioned that turning around the brand would require significant investment, management attention, and short-term sacrifices.

Additionally, Prada’s past track record with acquisitions has been mixed, raising concerns about whether it can successfully integrate Versace into its operations.

Looking Ahead

As Capri Holdings struggles to reposition Versace, industry watchers will be closely monitoring Prada’s next moves. While the company remains non-committal, its strong earnings and market position give it the flexibility to make a bold acquisition—one that could reshape the future of both brands in the global luxury landscape.

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China Sets 2025 Growth Target at 5% Amid Rising Trade Tensions

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China has set its gross domestic product (GDP) growth target at 5% for 2025, maintaining the same goal as last year despite escalating trade tensions with the United States and global economic uncertainties. The announcement came during the annual Two Sessions government meeting, where Chinese leaders also unveiled a series of stimulus measures aimed at bolstering the economy.

Increased Deficit and Lower Inflation Target

As part of its Government Work Report, Beijing has raised its budget deficit to 4% of GDP, marking the highest level in three decades. This move aligns with its “highly proactive” fiscal policy stance, which was initially outlined in January.

Additionally, the government has lowered its inflation target to 2% from 3% in 2024, the lowest in more than two decades, reflecting concerns over sluggish domestic demand and a slowing economy.

The Two Sessions—the annual meetings of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC)—are expected to conclude on March 11, with more economic policies set to be discussed.

Beijing Announces New Stimulus Measures

To support economic growth, China has unveiled a range of stimulus measures, including:

  • 4.4 trillion yuan (€570 billion) in special-purpose bonds for infrastructure projects.
  • 1.3 trillion yuan (€168 billion) in ultra-long special Treasury bonds to finance long-term projects.
  • 500 billion yuan (€65 billion) in special sovereign bonds to strengthen the country’s largest commercial banks.

The government has also announced policies to boost domestic consumption, support the artificial intelligence (AI) industry, and expand renewable energy projects. Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need to stimulate domestic demand, particularly as trade risks grow due to tariffs imposed by former U.S. President Donald Trump.

Additionally, China plans to expand cross-border e-commerce to push for more exports, with new supporting policies set to be introduced.

US-China Trade War Escalates

The latest round of stimulus measures comes amid a widening trade conflict between the U.S. and China. Last month, Trump imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, which was doubled to 20% on Tuesday.

In retaliation, China has announced a 15% tariff on U.S. agricultural products, including chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton, alongside a 10% tariff on soy, pork, beef, fruits, and vegetables. These duties will take effect on March 10.

This follows Beijing’s first round of retaliatory tariffs in February, which targeted U.S. liquefied natural gas, crude oil, farm equipment, and certain vehicles.

The escalating trade war, combined with tariffs imposed on Mexico and Canada, has led to sharp declines in global stock markets. Trump acknowledged the economic impact of his tariff strategy but downplayed concerns, stating in a Congressional address that the U.S. is “okay with that.”

Chinese Markets Rebound as Copper Prices Surge

Despite the trade tensions, Chinese markets showed resilience on Wednesday. The Hang Seng Index rebounded nearly 2%, snapping a four-day losing streak, while all three mainland stock benchmarks posted gains.

In the commodities market, copper futures surged 1.6%, driven by Beijing’s additional stimulus measures aimed at infrastructure and AI projects. As the world’s largest copper importer, China’s increased demand has lifted prices, benefiting global manufacturers and electric vehicle producers.

However, crude oil prices remained near yearly lows, weighed down by OPEC+’s recent decision to increase supply.

Looking Ahead

With trade tensions rising and economic headwinds persisting, China’s leadership faces mounting pressure to stabilize growth and shield its economy from external risks. The next phase of economic policies will likely focus on strengthening domestic industries, securing alternative trade partnerships, and ensuring financial stability amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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Income Tax Burdens Vary Across Europe, Study Finds

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A new analysis of income tax burdens across Europe has revealed significant disparities in taxation levels, with Nordic countries and Belgium imposing the heaviest rates, while Eastern and Southern European nations generally maintain lower tax burdens.

According to data compiled by Euronews Business using Eurostat figures, the proportion of income tax deducted from gross earnings varies widely depending on location, marital status, number of income earners, and the presence of dependent children.

Single Workers Face Wide Tax Disparities

In 2023, the average single worker without children in the European Union (EU) had an annual gross income of €41,004, with income taxes accounting for 17.3% (€7,075). However, the tax burden ranged significantly across 31 countries, from as low as 3.2% in Cyprus to 36% in Denmark.

Denmark topped the list with an average annual gross salary of €65,506, of which €23,757 was deducted in taxes. In contrast, Cyprus had a much lower average salary of €26,689 but required only €853 in taxes. Other high-tax nations included Iceland and Belgium, both surpassing the 25% threshold, while Ireland, Italy, Finland, Luxembourg, and Norway also recorded rates above 20%.

In contrast, Poland (5.7%), Romania (7%), Bulgaria (8.6%), and Czechia (9%) had some of the lowest tax burdens. Among the EU’s largest economies, Italy’s rate stood at 22.1%, exceeding the EU average, while Germany (17%), France (16.2%), and Spain (15.6%) fell below it.

Switzerland: High Earnings, Low Tax Burden

Switzerland presented an interesting case, reporting the highest average annual gross earnings at €105,105. Despite its high wages, the country maintained a relatively low tax rate of 12.2% (€12,796 in taxes), ranking 22nd overall. Tax Foundation analyst Alex Mengden attributed this to intense competition among local tax jurisdictions within Switzerland.

Couples and Families See Reduced Tax Burdens

For a two-earner couple without children, the average gross annual earnings in the EU amounted to €81,732, with €14,000 (17.1%) paid in income taxes. Again, Denmark had the highest burden (35.5%), while Cyprus maintained the lowest rate at 3.3%.

When children are factored in, tax burdens decrease significantly. A one-earner couple with two children in the EU had an average gross income of €41,043, but paid only €3,311 in taxes, representing an 8.1% rate. Some countries, such as Slovakia (-14.1%), Czechia (-6.5%), Poland (-1.1%), and Germany (-0.2%), even offered negative tax rates, meaning eligible families received refunds instead of paying taxes.

Where Do Taxes Hit the Hardest?

The study confirms that Denmark consistently ranks highest in tax burdens across all household types. Belgium follows closely, ranking in the top three for most categories. Nordic countries generally impose the highest tax rates, while Eastern and Southern European nations tend to have lower tax burdens, often accompanied by strong family-oriented tax incentives.

Germany, Slovakia, and Portugal exhibit some of the largest tax reductions for one-earner families, signaling favorable policies for households with children. As income tax structures continue to evolve, regional trends show a persistent divide between high-tax welfare states and low-tax economies prioritizing wage growth and business-friendly policies.

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