Business

China’s Economic Data Reveals Challenges Amid Trade and Consumption Concerns

Published

6 days ago

December 16, 2024

RTX

China’s industrial output showed modest growth in November, but weaker-than-expected retail sales have intensified calls for Beijing to focus on consumer-oriented stimulus measures as the nation braces for potential new U.S. tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump’s administration.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed that industrial output rose 5.4% in November, slightly above October’s 5.3% increase and outperforming analysts’ forecasts. However, retail sales—a key measure of consumer activity—slowed to a three-month low of 3.0%, significantly below the 4.8% growth seen in October and the 4.6% increase predicted by analysts.

The mixed results underscore the challenges facing China as it seeks to sustain economic momentum heading into 2025. Analysts suggest that worsening trade relations with the U.S., coupled with fragile domestic consumption, could complicate recovery efforts.

President-elect Trump has pledged to impose tariffs exceeding 60% on Chinese goods, potentially accelerating Beijing’s plans to shift its $19 trillion economy from a reliance on exports and investment to a consumption-driven model. While this transition has been discussed for decades, experts note it remains a work in progress.

“China’s policies continue to favor manufacturers over consumers despite persistent signs of weak domestic demand,” said Dan Wang, an independent economist based in Shanghai. “This may exacerbate overcapacity issues and push Chinese companies to seek growth overseas.”

Fixed asset investment growth also slowed, rising 3.3% year-on-year in the January-November period, compared to a 3.4% increase in the previous month.

While some analysts believe retail sales figures may have been skewed by early shopping during the “Double 11” sales event in October, they agree that consumer demand remains heavily dependent on government subsidies. “When adjusted for October-November data smoothing, growth averages around 3.9%, but it is clear that consumption lacks intrinsic strength,” said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

China’s property sector, a significant economic driver, continues to weigh on consumer confidence. Despite a slowdown in the decline of new home prices in November, experts caution that recovery remains uncertain.

At the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) last week, Chinese leaders pledged to boost consumption, raise the budget deficit, and adopt a looser monetary policy for the first time in over a decade. Moody’s Ratings has adjusted China’s 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.2% from 4%, while a Reuters poll predicts 4.5% growth next year. However, new U.S. tariffs could reduce this figure by up to 1 percentage point.

Economists warn that while increased policy support may provide short-term relief, sustaining growth will require structural reforms and stabilization of key sectors such as real estate.

Business

Holiday Budgeting Tips: How to Save Money on Christmas in 2024

Published

1 day ago

December 21, 2024

RTX

With the festive season around the corner, holiday expenses are quickly piling up—gifts, social gatherings, decorations, and festive feasts. However, soaring living costs and higher interest rates have left many consumers with less disposable income this year, prompting a need for smarter budgeting strategies to avoid overspending during Christmas.

Experts Highlight Early Planning

Christie Cook, Managing Director of Retail at Hodge Bank, emphasized the importance of preparing early. “Ideally, we’d all enter the festive season with savings set aside, but with rising energy and domestic bills, many might feel unprepared for December’s higher outgoings,” she explained.

Cook suggested starting savings early and consistently setting aside money every payday. For instance, putting £50 (€60) into a savings account each month could yield £600 (€721) by the next holiday season. Fixed-term ISAs are another option for those with lump sums to save, providing interest benefits over the long term.

Budgeting and Spending Wisely

Tracking expenses and setting firm spending limits are crucial to avoiding holiday debt. Opting for cash or debit card payments over credit cards can offer better financial control and eliminate high-interest costs.

Shopping early for gifts can help spread expenses throughout the year and unlock better deals. Comparing prices and using cashback websites are other savvy strategies to maximize savings. Repurposing old decorations or making your own can also cut costs.

Managing Festive Feasts

Christmas dinners, often one of the biggest holiday expenses, can be managed through careful planning. Online portion calculators can reduce food waste, while buying frozen turkeys instead of fresh ones and focusing on fewer, crowd-favorite dishes can significantly lower costs. Hosting a potluck-style meal can further ease the financial and logistical burden.

Trends in 2024 Holiday Shopping

This year, consumers are prioritizing savings and seeking ways to cut costs. According to Vericast’s 2024 Holiday Retail TrendWatch report, 38% of respondents are hunting for discounts, while 27% are exploring local deals.

Interestingly, 41% of shoppers plan to prioritize gifts for themselves, even if it means spending less on others. Physical gifts remain more popular than experiences, largely due to cost considerations, while AI tools and digital wish lists are emerging as key shopping aids.

Many families are also reassessing holiday traditions, scaling back on extended gift exchanges and large gatherings to manage expenses.

Average Holiday Spending

In the UK, average Christmas spending per person is approximately £768 (€923), while other European countries, such as France (€159) and Germany (€166), report lower figures. Italy (€117) and Spain (€95) rank the lowest among major Western European economies.

Cook advised consumers to create wish lists and stick to them to avoid unnecessary purchases. “Unwanted gifts are often a waste of time and money,” she said.

While financial planning may feel daunting, early preparation and mindful spending can help ensure a joyful holiday season without the strain of overspending.

Business

Natural Gas Prices Hit Two-Year High Amid Winter Demand and Supply Concerns

Published

2 days ago

December 20, 2024

RTX

Natural gas prices surged to their highest levels in nearly two years on Friday, driven by expectations of a colder-than-average winter in the northern hemisphere, dwindling supplies, and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Benchmark natural gas futures rose to $3.66 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) during the Asian trading session, the highest price since January 2023. Year to date, prices have climbed 40%, reflecting mounting concerns among traders about rising demand and supply challenges.

Winter Weather Boosts Demand

The anticipated cold blast across Europe, China, Japan, and parts of the United States has heightened expectations of increased heating needs. According to EBW Analytics Group, mid-January weather forecasts point to a potential surge in daily heating demand by 18 billion cubic feet over the weekend.

“Weather patterns indicate below-average temperatures across key regions, which could drive significant consumption of natural gas for heating,” the group noted.

Supply Constraints Add Pressure

Supply-side challenges are compounding the price rise. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a net withdrawal of 125 billion cubic feet from working natural gas inventory for the week ending December 13, signaling tighter availability.

Geopolitical tensions have also played a role. Russia’s reduced gas supply to Europe following its 2022 aggression in Ukraine has led to increased reliance on the U.S. and Norway, now the region’s primary suppliers. Any further sanctions on Russian energy exports could exacerbate the supply crunch.

Additionally, production disruptions caused by Hurricane Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico in November contributed to a bullish trend, with prices rebounding from a four-year low of $1.53 MMBtu in February to the current levels.

Market Outlook: Short-Term Volatility, Long-Term Growth

In the near term, natural gas prices are expected to remain volatile. Analysts suggest that U.S. energy policies under President-elect Donald Trump, which emphasize fossil fuel production, could balance supply and demand dynamics.

Over the long term, natural gas demand is projected to grow, particularly as a key power source for the burgeoning artificial intelligence (AI) industry. S&P Global Commodity Insights estimates a one-third increase in global power demand over the next decade, with natural gas expected to play a critical role as a stable energy source.

Wells Fargo analysts predict a 20% rise in electricity demand by 2030 due to AI-driven infrastructure needs, with natural gas likely to provide 47 gigawatts annually between 2024 and 2035.

Goldman Sachs anticipates that natural gas will account for 60% of the power required for AI operations, as renewable energy alone cannot meet the growing demand.

As energy markets brace for winter and longer-term shifts in consumption patterns, natural gas is positioned to remain a vital component of the global energy mix.

Business

Global Markets Slide as Fed’s Hawkish Rate Cut Triggers Bond Yield Surge

Published

2 days ago

December 20, 2024

RTX

Global markets are poised to end the week on a downward trend after the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish rate cut on Wednesday led to a surge in government bond yields and drained liquidity.

Stock Markets Decline

Major equity markets across the globe experienced significant losses, with Thursday marking one of the broadest selloffs since August. The Fed’s decision, which projected fewer rate cuts in 2025, dashed hopes for a year-end “Santa Rally” and spurred negative sentiment among investors.

In the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3.39% over the past five trading days, while the S&P 500 dropped 3.04% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slid 2.8%. The small-cap Russell 2000 was hit hardest, tumbling 5.5%. All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 ended the week in negative territory, with real estate and energy leading losses at 6.84% and 6.76%, respectively.

In Europe, major indices also posted significant declines. The pan-European Stoxx 600 fell 2.32%, Germany’s DAX dropped 2.14%, France’s CAC 40 slipped 1.55%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 shed 2.35%. Declines in energy and industrial stocks weighed heavily on these markets, with oil and metal prices under pressure.

Bond Yields Soar

The Fed’s stance sent yields on benchmark government bonds soaring. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.56%, its highest level since May, while Germany’s 10-year bond yield climbed to 2.3%, a one-month high.

Divergent Central Bank Policies

Central banks around the world responded differently to economic conditions.

In the UK, the Bank of England held interest rates steady at 4.75% but signaled caution about future rate cuts. Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized a gradual approach, contrasting sharply with the Fed’s hawkish outlook. This divergence weakened the British pound to its lowest level since May.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate and gave no clear guidance on future hikes, causing the yen to weaken against the dollar. In China, the People’s Bank of China left its loan prime rates unchanged, likely influenced by the Fed’s position.

Economic Data and Outlook

In the U.S., third-quarter GDP growth was revised upward to an annualized rate of 3.1%, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious approach to easing. However, New Zealand slipped into a technical recession after consecutive quarters of contraction.

The week’s developments underscore challenges for global markets as they navigate mixed economic signals, tightening monetary policies, and geopolitical uncertainties.