Europe’s energy markets are bracing for a challenging winter as natural gas prices surge, driven by increased demand and supply uncertainties. The Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), Europe’s benchmark for natural gas prices, recently hit a one-year high, reflecting growing concerns over supply shortfalls and geopolitical tensions.

Storage Levels Strong but Under Pressure

Despite early preparations, Europe’s gas storage reserves are facing significant withdrawals due to colder-than-expected weather. Data from Gas Infrastructure Europe shows that the first two weeks of November saw storage levels drop by nearly 4% (4.29 bcm). Current reserves remain robust at 95% capacity, surpassing the EU’s targets, but experts warn of depletion risks.

Dr. Yousef Alshammari, President of the London College of Energy Economics, noted that Europe’s gas reserves may fall below 50% by spring 2025, compared to 60% at the end of the previous winter. “Colder weather and increased heating demand will likely keep prices elevated compared to last year’s relatively mild winter,” Alshammari told Euronews Business.

Geopolitical Tensions and Supply Risks

The geopolitical landscape continues to weigh heavily on energy markets. Gazprom’s recent suspension of natural gas supplies to Austria over a bilateral dispute, coupled with the imminent expiration of a Russia-Ukraine gas transit agreement in January 2025, has heightened concerns about supply disruptions.

The end of the pipeline agreement could remove half of Russia’s remaining gas exports to Europe, exacerbating supply challenges during peak demand. “Any further disruption could force Europe to revert to coal and oil for power generation, which would have broader implications for energy markets,” said Alshammari.

Alshammari also highlighted that political dynamics, particularly the transition to a new U.S. administration, may influence energy prices. He cautioned that further tensions could amplify price volatility for both natural gas and oil.

Renewables and Energy Efficiency Mitigate Some Pressure

Renewable energy’s share of Europe’s electricity production reached 44.7% in 2024, up 12.4% from 2022, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. Improved energy efficiency and diversification have also helped mitigate demand for natural gas, which fell from 350 bcm in 2022 to 295 bcm in 2024.

However, Alshammari cautioned that renewables alone cannot resolve Europe’s energy challenges. “Countries with strong hydropower capabilities, like Norway and Iceland, are better positioned to avoid price spikes, but a diversified mix, including nuclear energy, is essential,” he said.

With increased reliance on LNG imports and the potential for heightened demand, Europe faces a delicate balancing act to maintain energy security while transitioning to a more sustainable energy future.

Business activity across the eurozone contracted sharply in November, with the services sector joining manufacturing in a downturn that signals the region’s steepest economic decline since January.

The Flash Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a key indicator of economic health, dropped to 48.1 from October’s neutral 50.0. This unexpected contraction underscores mounting economic challenges, defying market forecasts of an unchanged reading.

Services Join Manufacturing in Contraction

The services sector, long a pillar of eurozone resilience, fell into contraction for the first time in 10 months. Its PMI dropped to 49.2 from 51.6 in October, while manufacturing continued its prolonged slump, with its PMI falling to 45.2. This marked 20 consecutive months of declining production.

“The eurozone’s manufacturing sector is sinking deeper into recession, and now the services sector is starting to falter,” said Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. He attributed the struggles to ongoing political uncertainty in the bloc’s largest economies.

Declining new orders, which fell for the sixth straight month, further pressured businesses. Export demand also weakened significantly, leading some firms to cut employment slightly.

Inflation Resurfaces, Complicating ECB’s Path

Despite the slowdown in activity, inflationary pressures intensified. Input cost inflation hit a three-month high, driven by rising service-sector costs, even as manufacturing costs declined.

Output prices accelerated compared to October, creating a challenging environment for the European Central Bank (ECB).

“The eurozone is in a stagflationary environment—activity is declining, yet prices are rising,” de la Rubia explained. He noted that surging service sector prices could complicate the ECB’s monetary policy decisions, with some policymakers potentially advocating for rate cuts in December.

Germany and France Show Deeper Weakness

The eurozone’s largest economies, Germany and France, reported sharper-than-expected contractions in November.

France’s services PMI dropped to 45.7 from 49.2, marking its worst performance since January. Domestic political uncertainty continued to weigh heavily on its economy.

Germany’s services PMI fell to 49.4 from 51.6, its first contraction in nine months. Rising costs, especially wages, compounded challenges for companies.

Market Reaction: Euro, Equities, and Banks Fall

The unexpected economic contraction sent ripples through financial markets. The euro tumbled over 1% against the dollar to $1.04, its lowest since November 2022, as investors anticipated accelerated ECB rate cuts.

Eurozone bond yields also declined, with Germany’s 10-year Bund yield falling eight basis points to 2.25%. Equities followed suit, with the Euro STOXX 50 index dropping 0.7%.

Banks bore the brunt of the selloff, with shares of major lenders such as Deutsche Bank, Societe Generale, and Unicredit falling by 2.5% to 4%. Conversely, defensive sectors like utilities gained, reflecting a shift in investor preference amid economic uncertainty.

ExxonMobil is exploring a potential partnership with Eni of Italy and Total of France to jointly develop significant natural gas deposits located off the southern coast of Cyprus, Cypriot Energy Minister George Papanastasiou announced on Friday.

The collaboration would center on gas fields discovered in close proximity by the companies in Cyprus’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ). According to Papanastasiou, ExxonMobil’s ongoing discussions with the Eni-Total consortium aim to expedite the monetization of these deposits.

Boost from New Exploratory Drilling

The prospect of collaboration could hinge on the success of ExxonMobil’s exploratory drilling at a site dubbed “Pegasus,” set to commence early next year. The well is located near the company’s Glaucus deposit, estimated to contain between 5 and 8 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas. Glaucus is situated within Block 10, an area jointly held by ExxonMobil and Qatar Petroleum.

Adjacent to this area, in Block 6, the Eni-Total consortium has identified the Cronos deposit, which holds an estimated 2.5 tcf of gas. Papanastasiou suggested that if the Pegasus well yields substantial reserves, infrastructure could potentially link Glaucus to Pegasus for efficient resource development.

In addition, ExxonMobil plans to drill another exploratory well, Electra, in January 2024 in Block 5, located north of Block 10 and west of Block 6. An assessment of these wells is expected by mid-2024, which could determine development strategies for the resources.

Strategic Energy Role

Cypriot officials have highlighted offshore gas as a critical component of Europe’s efforts to diversify energy sources amid the geopolitical fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine. Following talks with ExxonMobil Vice President for Global Exploration John Ardill, Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides reiterated the country’s commitment to leveraging its energy potential.

Papanastasiou stated that development options under consideration include converting the gas into liquefied natural gas (LNG) using offshore installations or transferring it to onshore facilities in Cyprus for domestic use and export.

Broader Energy Landscape

Currently, ExxonMobil and Qatar Petroleum hold exploration licenses for two blocks in Cyprus’s EEZ, while the Eni-Total consortium operates in seven blocks. A Chevron-Shell partnership controls one additional block.

President Christodoulides also revealed that Cyprus is in preliminary talks with energy firms from Persian Gulf states regarding potential exploration licenses in its offshore territory.

With new drilling operations and potential international partnerships, Cyprus is positioning itself as a significant player in the global energy market, contributing to regional and European energy security.